Monday, January 10, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDCHF moves to new 2011 highs

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 07:16 AM PST

EURUSD misbehaving. Regrouping

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 06:57 AM PST

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Do I have any confidence today? I can not say it I do. Here is how we stand:

  • Triple bottom at 1.2873.
  • Double top at 1.2938
  • 1.2904 = 100 and 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart
  • Perhaps some interim targets at 1.2924 on the top and 1.2893 on the bottom.

The non trending nature of the action today says that the market is unsure of the bias.  Trading against the extremes seems logical. However, a break - and it might take a move at the 11:00 AM London fix - should solicit action.

For traders who have a bias - i.e. are more bullish or bearish, use the 1.2904 level as a low risk borderline should still yield some clues. 

Admittedly, it is one of those Monday’s which can be frustrating for some (i.e., me) or great for others (sellers against the highs/buyers against the low). 

In other news, oil is up a $1.00 and DJIA is down 80 points.

Gold tested 100 hour MA and fell.  Lower Gold has been bullish for the dollar of late but not sure it has signficance today.

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The NY Morning Forex Commentary for January 10th is available

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 06:36 AM PST

No US economic data today. Canada Building Permit data much weaker. The EURUSD remains contained in narrow trading range.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.10.2011

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 06:35 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-trading-6-150x200Good Morning:

The USD strengthened for the first day of the trading week.  This week we have data on US Retail Sales-and the markets are expected an increase.  Retail Sales have increased for the past 6 months, which is a positive sign for the US economy.
European governments are expected to borrow $43 billion this week-as the cost of insuring sovereign debt against default rose to record levels. 
Portugal, Spain and Italy are scheduled to hold bond auctions this week-on the heels of increased borrowing costs at last weeks bill sales.
The continued sovereign debt problems in the EU continue to dominate markets activity.

Asian equity markets were mixed, European markets are lower-and US Futures are also lower at this point. 

Oil:$89.30                                                             Gold:$1372.40

NO MAJOR DATA DUE OUT TODAY

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD tries the upside

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 06:10 AM PST

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The EURUSD remains contained but now supported after the triple bottom at the 1.2873 area.  The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart are converged at the 1.2904 level and should provide support.  The high for the day at the 1.2938 level now becomes the next target to get through.

The 65 pip low to high range is simply too narrow for today.  I am looking for an extension of the range. Staying above the 1.2904 level keeps the bulls in charge. Above the 1.2948 targets 1.2960.

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Canada Building Permits

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 05:32 AM PST

Building Permits(MoM)-  Survey:  1.5%    Actual: -11.2%    Prior:  -6.5%    Revised:  -6.2%

Nov.2010 vs. Nov(MoM) vs. Nov(YoY)
Total Permits:  $5.4903  vs.  -11.3%   vs.  23.9%
Residential:  $3.8617 vs.  8.3%  vs.  13.2%
Non-Residential:  $2.7458  vs.  26.7  vs.  42.9%

For the MoM, both Non Residential and Residential both fell with Non residential permits falling by -16.1% adn Residental falling by -7.2%.

The USDCAD has had a ho-hum reaction to the data, but remains above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 0.9960 and 0.9965 levels respectively. A move above the 0.9976 level is needed to help the upward bias for the pair (target would be 1.0010).

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EURO Auctions will be a focus this week

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 05:30 AM PST

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Tuesday: Greece - 1.5 billion Euro of 26 week treasury bills
Wednesday: Portugal - 750 million Euro 3 year notes, 1.25 billion 9 year bonds. The coupons previously were 3.6% and 4.8% respectively. Yields are much higher now with 3 year yields at 4.94% and 10 year yields at 7% currently
Thursday: Spain - 5 year notes to be auctioned with the maturing bonds having a 3.25% yield. They have announced a plan to sell a maximum of 3 billion euros
Thursday: Italy - 4 year notes to be auctioned with the maturing bonds having a 3% yield. Also they will auction 15 year BTPs.

Netherlands and Germany will also issue bonds this week.

Germany will issue 6 billion Feb 2016 notes on Wednesday along with 1 billion April 2020 inflation linked bonds.

Netherlands will issue up to 3.5 billion January 2014 DSL on Tuesday.

Yields on Portugal debt is down 16 basis points from last week, while Spains yields are up a 9 basis points.  Spain faces bond redemptions of 15.5billion euro in April.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 05:06 AM PST

  • EURUSD has narrow range and awaits auctions from Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
  • GBPUSD pressured on weaker housing data but largely contained in Non-trending range as the market digests 2011 fate with high inflation/uncertain growth.
  • USDJPY tries to rally but market may be running out of upside patience.
  • USDCHF remains in a contained defined range and awaits a market push.
  • EURJPY points to the downside in early NY trade.
  • AUDUSD falls on China trade and floods and
  • USDCAD stronger but bumping into resistance levels.

For a video look at the key technical levels, click on the video link

ECB’s President Trichet On the Wires

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 04:56 AM PST

Says:

  • Global growth better than expected
  • Emerging economies are driving global growth
  • Inflation threats in emerging, not advanced economies
  • Must analyse reasons for food price increases
  • Central banks must anchor price expectations
  • Declines to comment on exchange rates
  • Global economy meeting didn’t discuss Portugal
  • Fiscal policy soundness important

Canada Building Permits Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 04:23 AM PST

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Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 01:37 AM PST

EZ Sentix Investor Confidence came in at 10.6, weaker than the 11.9 expected.

Eur/Usd has not felt an effect regarding this data. The pair currently trades at 1.2912.

Swiss Retail Sales

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 12:17 AM PST

Swiss Retail Sales y/y came in at 2.5%, stronger than the 2.2% expected.

Usd/Chf is trading at session lows (.9635) as this number should strengthen the CHF currency.

UK Halifax House Price Index

Posted: 10 Jan 2011 12:02 AM PST

Halifax HPI dropped 1.3% versus last month. A 0.3% decline was expected.

This is a weak number for the GBP. Gbp/Usd has lost about 10 points since release, trading at 1.5337.

French Industrial Production

Posted: 09 Jan 2011 11:47 PM PST

French Industrial Production rose 2.3% versus a month ago. A 1.1% increase was expected.

A postitive signal for the euro which is staring to rebound from a recent sell off. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.2890.

1-10 Economic Calendar

Posted: 09 Jan 2011 09:35 PM PST

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