Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Oil moves higher on Egypt tensions.
• EURUSD moves below the 100 hour MA
• Military in streets in Cairo.
• Gold moves higher.
• University of Michigan Confidence Higher
• GDP comes in weaker but the components are good. The majors stay within ranges
• GDP: Consumption and exports lead the gain, but Govt and Investment falter
• US GDP & Employment Cost Index Fall, Personal Consumption Rises
• Key technical levels in the USDCAD to eye through US GDP
• Key technical levels in the USDJPY to eye through US GDP
• Key technical levels in the GBPUSD to eye through US GDP
• Key technical levels in the EURUSD to eye through US GDP
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary. Key levels through the GDP
• US Employment Cost Index & GDP Data due at 8:30AM
• Trichet speaking on Swiss television

Oil moves higher on Egypt tensions. Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:32 AM PST Mideast tension in Egypt is causing oil to rebound today. Oil is up $1.50 currently. There are some rumors that flow of oil through the Suez Canal might be effected, disrupting the supply of oil out of the Middle East.

EURUSD moves below the 100 hour MA Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:25 AM PST

Military in streets in Cairo. Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:17 AM PST Gold surges higher

Gold moves higher. Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:04 AM PST Gold has moved above the 1315 resistance area as pictures of rioting in Egypt help contribute to the flight to safety bias. The price must maintain above the level to keep the bullish bias. IF it can, the 100 hour MA at the 1330 level becomes a target. Before that level 1326.65 is a key level. This is the 38.2% of the move up from the July 2010 low the December 2010 high.

University of Michigan Confidence Higher Posted: 28 Jan 2011 06:56 AM PST

GDP comes in weaker but the components are good. The majors stay within ranges Posted: 28 Jan 2011 06:09 AM PST

GDP: Consumption and exports lead the gain, but Govt and Investment falter Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:33 AM PST The USD GDP came in less than expectations at 3.2% vs 3.6% expectations. Personal consumption rose by 4.4% which was higher than 4.0% gain expected (for the quarter). Exports rose by 8.5%. Inventories only added $7.2 billion. Last quarter they rose by $121 billion. This suggests inventory replenishment going forward should boost growth going forward. Final real sales increases by 7.1% (best since 1984) Contributions to GDP: Personal Consumption 3.04% Gross Pvt Investment: -3.2% (within this category Inventories were the big negative contributor as it subtracted -3.7% from GDP) Net Exports::+3.44% Government: -.11% Overall, although weaker than expectations, the mix is positive with consumption strong and inventories being the big negative.  If Final sales continue the inventories will need to be replenished going forward.  In fact, some analysts are estimating that because of the inventory bounceback effect, the 1st quarter GDP could be upwards of 5%.  Is it enough to start making a dent in employment? Jobs, Jobs, Jobs remain the key for 2011.  The dollar initially dipped on the repor with the USDJPY moving to support at the 82.08 area. The top has so far been contained by the 100 and 200 hour MA at 82.45-48. A break above this level  is bullish for the USDJPY.

US GDP & Employment Cost Index Fall, Personal Consumption Rises Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:32 AM PST GDP Annualized:      Survey: 3.5%          Actual: 3.2%            Prior:  2.6%          GDP Price Index:     Survey:  1.6%         Actual: .3%       Prior:  2.1%  Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  0.4%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.5%    Personal Consumption:     Survey: 4.0%          Actual: 4.4%           Prior:  2.4%           Employment Cost Index:       Survey:  0.5%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.4%

Key technical levels in the USDCAD to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:28 AM PST

Key technical levels in the USDJPY to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST

Key technical levels in the GBPUSD to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:18 AM PST

Key technical levels in the EURUSD to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:10 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary. Key levels through the GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 04:54 AM PST In the report, I will outline the key support and resistance levels to eye through the all important US GDP. GDP expected to show a gain of 3.5% vs 2.6% on an annualized basis. Personal Consumption and Exports are expected to buoy the gains.

US Employment Cost Index & GDP Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Jan 2011 04:35 AM PST

Trichet speaking on Swiss television Posted: 28 Jan 2011 02:36 AM PST Euro is “very credible”. Euro creating “confidence”. Euro region recovery has been confirmed. Recovery not creating enough jobs. Important to improve stability pact.

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