Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Mixed NFP keeping the market somewhat contained.
• EURUSD within channel as market ponders the implications
• The Unemployment Report: Who would have thought?
• GBPUSD uses 100 hour MA as resistance
• EURUSD stays contained as the market digests the report
• US Employment data weaker job growth
• Non Farm Payroll/Unemployment due at 8:30 AM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.7.2011
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary outlines key levels for the US Employment report
• Canadian Unemployment
• German Industrial Production weaker than expected
• Eurozone Unemployment & Final 3Q GDP
• French Trade Balance
• German Retail Sales & Trade Balance
• Swiss unemployment rate remains at 3.6%

Mixed NFP keeping the market somewhat contained. Posted: 07 Jan 2011 06:38 AM PST

EURUSD within channel as market ponders the implications Posted: 07 Jan 2011 06:02 AM PST The channel trendline comes in at 1.3015 with other resistance at 1.3021.

The Unemployment Report: Who would have thought? Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:54 AM PST The Unemployment report has something for everyone. The NFP and Private sector job growth were worse than expectations, but the Unemployment rate fell on the back of a lower amount of people in the workforce.  What is most obvious about the report to me is if Iwere to poll 2,000 traders on what they thought the dollar would do if the NFP rose by 103K and the Private would rise by 113 kwhere would the dollar go? The 2,000 respondents - with expectations of a 200K report - would say the dollar would go lower. It did but then rallied.  The day is young but go figure.  In the forex market having tomorrows newspaper does not always work.  Conclusion: Fundamentals secondary trading tool.  Technicals primary trading tool. The market from a fundamental perspective seems to be saying “we will wait it out”.  We will wait another month and see if jobs in the report will show up next month.  From my perspective, let the dust settle and get back to the technicals.  It is likely to be a wild ride today.  So be patient.

GBPUSD uses 100 hour MA as resistance Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:39 AM PST A break of the 100 hour MA would confirm bullish.  Market stop is below the 100 hour MA (BLUE line) at the 1.5485 level.

EURUSD stays contained as the market digests the report Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:37 AM PST The 1.3021 level (underside of trendline and high from yesterday) held the spike rally. ON the downside, athe 1.2968 level is the key level to watch.  A move below look for momentum to intensify.

US Employment data weaker job growth Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:30 AM PST Non-Farm Payroll: 103k vs 71k (was 39K) Private Sector Jobs: 113k vs 79k (was 50K) Unemployment Rate: 9.4 vs 9.8 (was 9.8%) The number is worse from a jobs standpoint. The prior months were revised. The Unemployment rate fell dramatically as workforce shrank by around 260,000. USDJPY went down to test 82.87 and bounced.

Non Farm Payroll/Unemployment due at 8:30 AM Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:18 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.7.2011 Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:17 AM PST Good Morning: In what is normally a quiet session prior to US employment data (due out at 8:30 AM today)-the Euro lost ground to the USD as data from the EZ (Retail Sales,Trade Balance and GDP) missed expectations. US employment data is expected to show an increase in jobs-which is adding to the markets optimism that the US economy is gaining traction and looks to gets stronger in 2011.  Hopefully this optimism will also be shared by the business community-thus resulting in new hiring. World equity markets are mixed-and US Futures are in positive territory. Oil:$88.95                                              Gold:$1358.70 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVAT PAYROLLS DEC. 150K      50K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS DEC. 140K      39K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACT.PAYROLLS        DEC. OK      -13K 8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DEC. 9.70% 9.80% 8:30A.M. AVG. HORLY EARNINGS MoM ALL EMP. DEC. 0.20% 0.00% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY ALL EMP. DEC. 1.80% 1.60% 8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES DEC.      34.3O          34.3O 3:00P.M.  CONSUMER CREDIT        NOV. $0.5B          $3.4B HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Commentary outlines key levels for the US Employment report Posted: 07 Jan 2011 04:44 AM PST If you are not on my email distribution list and want to opt in, send me an email at greg@fxdd.com.

Canadian Unemployment Posted: 07 Jan 2011 04:09 AM PST Canadian unemployment rate remains at 7.6%, 7.7% was expected. The net change in employment was relatively as expected as 22,000 jobs were gained, 20,000 was expected. Usd/Cad dropped about 20 pips to .9938.

German Industrial Production weaker than expected Posted: 07 Jan 2011 03:20 AM PST German Industrial Production m/m came in at -0.7%, weaker than the -0.1% expected. Eur/Usd has felt some effect from number as the pair trades off about 10 pips to 1.2980.

Eurozone Unemployment & Final 3Q GDP Posted: 07 Jan 2011 02:03 AM PST EZ Unemployment rate remains at 10.1% as expected. Final 3q GDP came in at 0.3%, revised down from  0.4%. Eur/Usd is currently trading 25 points off earlier lows at 1.2985. earlier in the session the pair traded down to 1.2959.

French Trade Balance Posted: 06 Jan 2011 11:50 PM PST French Trade Balance came in at -3.9B, slightly stronger than the -4.0B expected. Eur/Usd has rebounded in last 30 minutes after bad German retail sales data. The pair currently resides at 1.2995, unaffected by this news.

German Retail Sales & Trade Balance Posted: 06 Jan 2011 11:02 PM PST German retail sales m/m came in at -2.4%, weaker than the 1.0% expected. Trade Balance came in at 12.0B, weaker than the 15.5B expected. Eur/Usd has lost 15 points since release, currently trading at 1.2975.

Swiss unemployment rate remains at 3.6% Posted: 06 Jan 2011 10:53 PM PST Swiss uneployment rate came in at 3.6%, inline with forecast and its prior reading. Usd/Chf currently trades at .9655 and Eeur/Chf at 1.2545.

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