Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• BOE Posen sees inflation rising then falling
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.21.2011
• Canada Retail Sales Improve
• Canada Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM
• UK retail sales worse at -0.8%
• Coming up at 4:30
• German Ifo slightly better at 110.3
• Fitch Comments
• German Ifo at 4 am (eastern)
• Swiss Trading at 38.2% Line
• Swiss Showing Some Hourly Consolidation
• USD/JPY Tests 200 Hour MAVG
• 1-21 Economic Calendar
• Rebroadcast of FXDD Live Education Jan 20th 2011

BOE Posen sees inflation rising then falling Posted: 21 Jan 2011 07:23 AM PST BOE Posen sees UK inflation rising but falling well below 2% target. Risk in inflaiton is pound and growth demand from Europe.  He adds that just because markets price in rate increases it does not have to happen.  CPI excluding currency effect, commodities and VAT impact is low. The comments are more bearish for the GBP. The 100 hour moving average comes in at the 1.5949.  A break below this level should lead to increased downside momentum. Risk is a move back above the 1.5973 area (see chart below)

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 21 Jan 2011 06:57 AM PST   Gold stays below 100 day MA which is bearish for the pair The EURUSUD continues to squeeze shorts on better German data GBPUSD is bullish but finds resistance against yesterdays high USDJPY finds support against the 100 hour MA and consolidates USDCHF has ceilings and floor defining key levels but bias is bearish USDCAD falls on better Canadian data. 200 hour MA and 61.8Fibo support finds profit takers For a thorough review of the key levels to eye, watch the FXDD Morning Commentary.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.21.2011 Posted: 21 Jan 2011 06:10 AM PST Good Morning: We awaken to another snowy day in New York. In a choppy overnight session the Euro picked up some steam on the heels of better than expected German business confidence.  The IFO data was also the highest level reported since Germany was reunified in 1991. Better than expected earnings from General Electric and Google also helped lift the single currency, as did the continued optimism that the EU will find a long term solution to the sovereign debt issues that have plagued the region. Fitch Ratings did make comments that there is continued risk in the Euro region that some sountries may have their ratings downgraded further. Asian equity markets were mostly lower-but Europe is higher and US Futures are up over 40 points at this time. Oil:$89.40                                                                    Gold:$13423.50 No major data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Canada Retail Sales Improve Posted: 21 Jan 2011 05:31 AM PST Retail Sales:   Survey: 0.5%    Actual: 1.3%   Prior:  0.8%    Revised: 1.0% Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM):    Survey: 0.5%    Actual: 1.0%     Prior:  0.9%

Canada Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 21 Jan 2011 04:53 AM PST

UK retail sales worse at -0.8% Posted: 21 Jan 2011 02:18 AM PST

Coming up at 4:30 Posted: 21 Jan 2011 01:07 AM PST

German Ifo slightly better at 110.3 Posted: 21 Jan 2011 01:01 AM PST IFO’s Nerb says manufacturing industry is still on an upward trend and construction is recovering. He also added that low interest rates are advantageous for Germany.

Fitch Comments Posted: 21 Jan 2011 12:57 AM PST Fitch ratings chief Riley made comments that Euro break up risk remains small and that he sees “periodic” episodes of market turmoil in Europe. Comments were also made that they foresee continuing risk of rating downgrades in Europe.

German Ifo at 4 am (eastern) Posted: 21 Jan 2011 12:43 AM PST

Swiss Trading at 38.2% Line Posted: 21 Jan 2011 12:40 AM PST As per my prior post, USD/CHF has continued lower (with help from a pop in the EUR/USD) and has reached the downside target of .9612.

Swiss Showing Some Hourly Consolidation Posted: 20 Jan 2011 11:47 PM PST On the move from January 13th highs to the low on the 19th, the USD/CHF is showing signs of  consolidation as it trades between an old resistance line at .96838 and the 50.0% retracement line. A close below may see the pair continue towards the area of .9612 where both the 38.2% line and 100 hour moving average come in.

USD/JPY Tests 200 Hour MAVG Posted: 20 Jan 2011 10:42 PM PST Some selling in the USD/JPY brought the pair lower, but it rebounded after touching the 200 hour moving average at the session low of 82.743. Bullish movement may see the pair re-visit the 83 handle, but continued selling may see it continue to the 38.2% line at 82.624.

1-21 Economic Calendar Posted: 20 Jan 2011 08:50 PM PST

Rebroadcast of FXDD Live Education Jan 20th 2011 Posted: 20 Jan 2011 02:55 PM PST Rebroadcast of FXDD Live Education from Jan 20th 2011 >>Watch now This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

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