Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

ISM Non Manufacturing component pieces

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 07:07 AM PST

Composite Index       57.1 vs  55.0 last month
Business Activity     63.5 vs  57.0 last month
Prices Paid           70.0  vs 63.2 last month 
New Orders            63.0  vs 57.7 last month
Backlog of Orders *   48.5 vs  51.5 last month
Supplier Deliveries*  51.5 vs 52.5 last month
Inventory Change *    52.5 vs 51.5 last month
Inventory Sentiment*  61.5  vs 60.0 last month
Employment            50.5 vs  52.7 last month

Employment down is a bit of a surprise, but new orders are strong

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Better

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 07:02 AM PST

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Forex Morning Report Jan 5

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 06:45 AM PST

Forex Morning Report Jan 5

US ISM Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 06:28 AM PST

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USDJPY moves toward key 100 day MA

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:51 AM PST

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The 83.13 level is shaping up as a key level for the USDJPY on its move to the upside today. It is the key 100 day MA and the 61.8% of the move down from the December high to the low.  The high reached 83.06 but have seen some profit taking selling.  ON the downside if the 82.87 area can contain the correction (the BOJ intervention level), the market should be encouraged and look to make a test of the key level (and perhaps a break).

Longer term for the USDJPY, the high for December at 84.51 (realy 84.40-51) is a target for the pair as is the even longer term 85.87 level. This is the 38.2% of the move down from the April 2010 high to the low.

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Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2011

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:44 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-trading-3-150x200Good Morning:

This morning’s ADP Payroll data showed an increase of 297k  jobs in December 2010.  The estimate was for an increase of 100k.  This was great news for the US economy and the greenback.  The USD continued to rally on this data.  The USD was strong against the Euro in the overnight session, as the single currency came under pressure as the sovereign debt problems within the region continue to make headlines. 
In another note from Europe the SNB reported that they will no longer accept Irish government bonds as collateral for repurchase agreement deals in the future.
Also- Portugal sold 500 mil of 6 month bills in line with yields that were anticipated by analysts.

Asian equity markets were mixed, and European markets are lower.  US Futres are lower at this time.

Oil:$88.76                                                                     Gold:$1374.40

7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS
7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY
8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE      DEC.      100K 93K
10:00A.M. ISM NON MANUF. COMOPOSITE             DEC. 55.7O 55.O

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD approached 100 hour MA at 1.5514

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:43 AM PST

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The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.5514 level. The GBPUSD is approaching this target level. The 50% of the move up from the December 27th low to the high comes in at the 1.5501 level. These are key targets that if broken signal even more bearish potential for the shorts

On the topside watch to see if the 1.5326-34 level contain corrections.

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Canada Raw Materials & Industrial Product Price Both Improve

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:40 AM PST

Raw Materials Price Index:   Survey:  2.0%   Actual:  3.5%   Prior:  1.7%   Revised:  2.3%

              Importance & Nov Data                       
Raw Materials:   100% , 148.4
Ex-Mineral Fuels:  58.6%,  129.3
Mineral Fuels:  41.4%,  175.7
Vegetable Products:  9.9%,  112.2
Animals:  19.8%,  101.4
Wood:  11.8%,  89.9
Ferrous Materials:  2.9%,  135.6
Non-Ferrous Metals:  11.3%,  228.4
Non-Metallic Minerals: 2.8%,  144.8

Industrial Product Price(MoM):    Survey:  0.3%    Actual:  0.5%    Prior:  0.5%

EURUSD testing 1.3180 support

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:34 AM PST

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This level is an old “remembered area” on the hourly chart dating back to November 2010 (put a line on your hourly at 1.3180-85 and go back in time on the hourly chart to see the number of times the market found support or resistance at the level).

The price dipped below for a brief moment on the initial move lower. Another break below should solicit more selling with the target off the daily chart pointin to 1.3079 where the 200 day MA and 50% retracement is found.

USDJPY breaks through 82.87

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:30 AM PST

Level was the key technical level where the BOJ intervened at on September 15th 2010. Now becomes support for the USDJPY. The next target to get through is 83.14 - the 61.8% of the move down from the Dec 15th high

EURUSD falls sharply on much better ADP

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:26 AM PST

US ADP Employment Change Shows Drastic Improvement

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST

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Dec vs. Nov
ADP Employment:   107,512  vs  107,215
Level Change:  297  vs  92
Small Firms(1-49): 48,499  vs  48,382
Level Change:  117  vs  49
Medium Firms(50-499):  41,469  vs  41,325
Level Change:  144  vs  44
Large Firms:(>499):  17,544  vs  17,508
Level Change:  36  vs v -1

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:01 AM PST

In the Opening Report I take a look at the EURUSD (still pressured), GBPUSD (mixed - non trending), USDJPY (back above MA resistance and looking to take out 82.28, USDCHF (Breaking above trendline), EURJPY (Finding support at 61.8%) and USDCAD (bounced off 100 hour MA and supported from below). See the key levels and the defined risk and why.

Challeger job cuts continues to improve

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 04:33 AM PST

The YoY change in December came in at -29% from a year ago with a total of 32,004 announced cuts for the month. This is down from 48,711 last month.  This is the lowest Job cut announcement since June 2000.

Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Price Index Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 05 Jan 2011 04:31 AM PST

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