Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Chicago PMI comes in stronger at 68.8
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Canada Showing Positive Data
• US Personal Income & Spending Both Rise as PCE Data is Slightly Worse
• Spending higher, Income lags. Savings rate down. EURUSD tests 1.3720
• EURUSD moves above 1.3686 and extends higher
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.31.2011
• US Personal Income, Personal Spending & PCE Data due at 8:30AM
• Canada GDP, Industrial Product Price, & Raw Materials Price Index Data due at 8:30AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for January 31st
• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate
• Eur/Usd recovering, needs to push above 1.3640 for added strength
• German Retail Sales
• 1-31 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Industrial Production

Chicago PMI comes in stronger at 68.8 Posted: 31 Jan 2011 06:45 AM PST The expectations was for a decline from last month to 64.5 from 66.8 The components showed stronger numbers as well: Prices paid 81.7 vs 78.0 last month Production 73.7 vs 72.2 last month New orders 75.7 vs 71.3 last month Order backlogs 60.6 vs 60.1 last month Inventories 54.5 vs 60.0 last month Employment 64.1 vs 58.4 last month Supplier deliveries 59.8 vs 63.2 last month

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 Jan 2011 06:21 AM PST

Canada Showing Positive Data Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:38 AM PST Gross Domestic Product (MoM):    Survey:  0.3%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.2%    NOV vs. OCT Goods: 0.1 vs 0.0% Manufacturing:  -0.8  vs  -0.8% Services: 0.5 vs  0.2% Wholesale: 1.5  vs  1.0% Industrial Prodution: 0.2  vs  0.1% Energy: 1.6  vs  0.5% Gross Domestic Product (YoY):             Actual: 3.0%        Revision:  3.4%    Industrial Product Price (MoM):    Survey:  0.6%         Actual: 0.7%        Prior: 0.5%   Revised: 0.6% Raw Materials Price Index (MoM):    Survey:  4.0%         Actual: 4.2%        Prior: 3.5%  Revised: 0.3%

US Personal Income & Spending Both Rise as PCE Data is Slightly Worse Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:36 AM PST Personal Income:           Survey: 0.4%         Actual:  0.4%        Prior: 0.3%    Revised: 0.4%      DEC vs. NOV Personal Income:  0.4 vs 0.4 Compensation:  0.3 vs 0.1 Wage & Salary:  0.3 vs 0.1 Disposable Inc: 0.4 vs 0.3 Personal Spending: 0.7 vs 0.3 3 Mon Annual %: 6.3 vs 5.4 Saving Rate: 5.3 vs 5.5 Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.5%         Actual: 0.7%         Prior: 0.4%       Revised: 0.3% PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.3%         Actual:  1.2%         Prior: 1.0%         PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual:  0.0%         Prior: 0.1%       PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  0.8%         Actual:  0.7%         Prior:  0.8%

Spending higher, Income lags. Savings rate down. EURUSD tests 1.3720 Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:31 AM PST With spending rising by 0.7% and incomes lagging with a 0.4% gain, the savings rate fell to 5.3% from 5.5%. PCE core continued to be tame with an unchanged reading. In Canada, GDP rose by 0.4% vs 0.3%. Inflation as measured by Industrial Product prices rose by 0.7% and Raw Material Price Index rose by 4.2%. EURUSD is testing the next upside resistance at the 1.3720 level. The USDCAD has moved lower on the better data and is now below the 0.9976-82 level. It is testing the next support level at the 100 hour MA and the underside trendline at the .09966 level.  Watch the 0.9976 to 0.9982 level for clues.  If the price can stay below these levels, the bias remains lower for the pair, with 0.9932 the next key support.

EURUSD moves above 1.3686 and extends higher Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:26 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.31.2011 Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:26 AM PST Good Morning: We wake up this morning with the situation in Egypt very much on the forefront of all world news events. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Egyptian government debt, which was highly anticipated.  The outlook is negative, and Egyptian debt sales have been put on hold.  Egypt’s banks and stock market were closed for the second day-as tens of thousands take to the street for the 6th day of protests against President Mubarak. Risk is off the table for now-as investors pursue safety. World equity markets are lower-but US Futures are pointing to a positive opening this morning. Oil is just around the $90/bar on concerns that any disturbance in the Middle East may affect the flow of oil. Presently the Suez Canal is operating normally-as this is a vital shipping channel for the region.  Keeping the Suez Canal open and running smothly will be a key indicator of oil prices in the near term. Oil:$89.99                                                        Gold:$1331.20 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM DEC. 0.10% 0.10% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING DEC. 0.50% 0.40% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY      DEC. 0.80% 0.80% 8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR DEC. 1.30% 1.00% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME DEC. 0.40% 0.30% 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MGR. JAN. 65.O     66.8O 10:00A.M. NAPM-MILWAUKEE JAN. 10:30A.M. DALLAS FED MANF. ACTIVITY JAN.       15.O 12.8O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Personal Income, Personal Spending & PCE Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:43 AM PST

Canada GDP, Industrial Product Price, & Raw Materials Price Index Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:34 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for January 31st Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:29 AM PST

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate Posted: 31 Jan 2011 02:08 AM PST Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y came in at 2.4%, inline with expectations but an improvement of the 2.2% prior reading. The market may have taken this as positive news as Eur/Usd escalated above 1.3640 upon the heels of release. The pair currently trades at 1.3660.

Eur/Usd recovering, needs to push above 1.3640 for added strength Posted: 31 Jan 2011 12:20 AM PST Since trading down to 1.3569 earlier in the session Eur/Usd has been on a steady recovery. If the pair can rise above 1.3640, which is the 50% fibo of move down from 1.3757 to 1.3569, this would signify a bullish sentiment and possibly send Euro above 1.3700. After the drop on Friday the pair tested 1.3640 as it attempted to rebound but couldn’t break above. So far the high has been 1.3635 this session and it appears the pair is poised for another run at 1.3640.

German Retail Sales Posted: 31 Jan 2011 12:02 AM PST German Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.3%, weaker than the 1.9% expected. The Euro held in place after this negative data. Eur/Usd is in the midst of a recovery after aselloff  down to 1.3569, mostly due to the crisis in Egypt The pair currently trades at 1.3624.

1-31 Economic Calendar Posted: 30 Jan 2011 09:22 PM PST

Japan’s Industrial Production Posted: 30 Jan 2011 06:17 PM PST Japan’s December Industrial Production readings came in better than expected up 3.1% month over month, higher than the survey of 2.8% and the prior reading of 1.0%. The year over year number was also better than expected up 4.6% vs. the 4.4% survey. The USD/JPY pair had no reaction to the release as the market is relatively unchanged as the world awaits a direction or resolution to the current turmoil in the Middle East.

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