Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Feds Yellen says global balances could threaten recovery
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary
• EURUSD starts to fall a touch, but momentum is limited.
• USDJPY tests 100 day MA and finds support
• Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Stronger
• US Employment better. Unemployment rate 8.9% 222K Private Payroll
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.4.2011
• NY Opening Forex Commentary : US Unemployment Report
• US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings Data Due at 8:30AM
• Halifax HPI
• 3-4 Economic Calendar
• Weekly Wrap with Greg & Shawn TODAY 12:30pm
• US Non Farm Payroll Roundtable Rebroadcast
• Traders Course Lesson 7 rebroadcast March 03 2011
• USDJPY moves higher on better US data. EURJPY surges too

Feds Yellen says global balances could threaten recovery Posted: 04 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PST She also calls for flexible exchange rates

The NY Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 04 Mar 2011 06:43 AM PST

EURUSD starts to fall a touch, but momentum is limited. Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:50 AM PST The reaction to the NFP was somewhat confusing. The price fell, rallied to 1.4000 resistance level and is now modestly falling. The price fell back below the pennant formation support at the 1.3956 level but needs to get through the next support at the 1.3916-20 level to keep the bears (dollar bulls) satisfied. The low for the day prior to the report was at 1.3948. A break below that level needs to attract selling interest.

USDJPY tests 100 day MA and finds support Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:42 AM PST The USDJPY moved higher than lower after the Unemployment report. The pair has found support buyers against the 100 day MA at the 82.56 level. The level also corresponds to the trendline support on the hourly chart (see below).  Keep an eye on this key level.  A move below 82.50 would not be welcomed (high from yesterdays trading).

Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Stronger Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:35 AM PST Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  196K     Actual:  192K    Prior:  36K      Revision: 63K Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 200K    Actual: 222K     Prior:  50K     Revised: 68K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:      Survey: 25K     Actual:  33K       Prior:  49K     Revised: 53K Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  9.1%     Actual: 8.9%     Prior:  9.0%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.0%      Prior:  0.4%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 1.7%      Prior:  1.9%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.2         Prior:  34.2

US Employment better. Unemployment rate 8.9% 222K Private Payroll Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:30 AM PST Unemployment Rate continues to move lower. Now at 8.9% NFP +192K Private Payroll 222K Manufacturing added 33K Average workweek 34.2 There are revisions to prior numbers as well with last month rising to 63K from 36K. Private sector payroll rose to 68K from 50 K as well. Although the number is better, the dollar has ironically fallen. The USDJPY moved higher initially but has since moved back lower toward support.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.4.2011 Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:11 AM PST Good Morning: Asian and European markets were relatively range bound-as the markets await this morning’s employment data in the US.  The guesstimate is for NFP to be up by almost 200K.  With this weeks positive data, we may expect to see better than expected NFP and unemployment rate numbers. Traders are hoping for good numbers after January’s disappointing results-which were highly contributed to the rough winter weather that seemed to surround most of the US. I think that we will need to see a few months of positive employment data before the Fed believes that this is a trend, and not a one-off. Asian and European equity markets traded higher-and US Futures are also higher at this time. Oil:$102.85                                                               Gold:$1418.50   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR EST.    PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFAM PAYROLLS FEB. 197K      36K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS FEB. 200K       50K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACT. PAYROLLS        FEB.  25K        49K 8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FEB. 9.10% 9.00% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MoM ALL EMP. FEB. 0.20% 0.40% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY ALL EMP FEB. 1.90% 1.90% 8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES FEB.         34.3O        34.2O 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS       JAN. 2.00% 0.20% HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

NY Opening Forex Commentary : US Unemployment Report Posted: 04 Mar 2011 04:53 AM PST   In this preview of the US Unemployment Report, I will go through the key technical levels that the traders will be looking out.  To find those levels I use trendlines, the 100 and 200 bar MA and Fibonacci Retracements. These are basic tools the market tends to like to use to determine the bullish or bearish bias of the market. They also help define your trading risk.  I take a look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD in the report, the major currency pairs that traders like to focus on. Risk is increased into the report. Be sure to define your risk as the moves can be exagerrated.

US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 04 Mar 2011 04:40 AM PST

Halifax HPI Posted: 04 Mar 2011 12:21 AM PST Halifax HPI m/m came in at -0.9%, weaker than the -0.6% expected. Gbp/Usd has lost 20 points since release, currently trading at 1.6260.

3-4 Economic Calendar Posted: 03 Mar 2011 08:50 PM PST

Weekly Wrap with Greg & Shawn TODAY 12:30pm Posted: 03 Mar 2011 12:16 PM PST Weekly Wrap Show live online with Greg and Shawn this Friday at 12:30pm TODAY. We will be looking at the big release of the month and then we will review trades that took place during the week. Reserve your seat now

US Non Farm Payroll Roundtable Rebroadcast Posted: 03 Mar 2011 10:50 AM PST Greg Michalowski, Bill Lawless and Shawn Powell host a Roundtable on the US Non Farm Payroll report- Watch the show This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Traders Course Lesson 7 rebroadcast March 03 2011 Posted: 03 Mar 2011 08:30 AM PST FXDD Traders Course Lesson 7 March 03 2011 - Watch the Rebroadcast This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

USDJPY moves higher on better US data. EURJPY surges too Posted: 03 Mar 2011 07:55 AM PST The USDJPY is moving higher today on the back of the better US Initial Claims and ISM Non Manufacturing data. The pair is also supported by the surge in the EURJPY today on the back of carry trade excitement. With the ECB looking to raise rates, the traders looking to take advantage of the carry profits between the EURO and the JPY are coming out in full force (see chart below). The next target for the EURJPY comes in at 115.00. A break above that level should lead to further buying interest in the pair and may also support the EURO in the process.  The USDJPY has good support now at the 82.20 level. This is the 200 bar MA (green line in the USDJPY chart above).  Better support comes in at 82.09/11 where the 38.2% of the days range and the breakout point (trendline) occurred. The market seems to be keying up for a strong US EMployment report tomorrow. The pair has also been sufficiently pressured since peaking in mid February. Support against trendline on the daily chart held (see chart below). This also gives the pair a key technical reason to move higher. Key resistance will be tested at the 82.55 level where the 100 day MA is found.  I would expect that on the first test at least, profit takers are likely to surface against the level.  A move above it, however, should not be faded as it turns the bias bullish for those traders who watch that chart.

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