Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY moves toward intraday support level
- USDCHF confined between trendlines
- EURUSD moves to new day highs. Resistance 1.4152
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.18.2011
- The NY Morning Call for March 18th
- WEBINAR 12:30 PM ET, The Weekly Wrap
- Japan sold less than 2 Tln Yen_Official
- Canada CPI
- UK Preliminary Mortgage Approvals
- Bundesbanks says it’s participating in yen intervention; concerted effort of G-7
- Swiss PPI
- Talk of European intervention drive euro higher
- German PPI
- USDCAD has support against 100 hour and 50% Fibo level
- How short is the USDCHF? Tests the 38.2% retracement.
| USDJPY moves toward intraday support level Posted: 18 Mar 2011 06:13 AM PDT
The USDJPY is wandering down to the support against the 38.2% of the move higher on the intervention and the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see green line in chart below). The minor profit taking came off the failure to move higher after the price moved back above the 100 bar MA in the early NY session (blue line in the chart above). Often times, failure on moves above technical levels (i.e. the 100 bar MA failure), lead to a move or bias in the opposite direction. That is what we have seen in the USDJPY in NY trading so far. Reports are that the global central banks have been present in the currency market on a consistent basis. So I would expect support on dips. However, there could be times of selling that could be painful. Below the 80.90, level the next key support comes in at 80.57. A move below the 80.57 level would not be expected. Another support level to be aware is the 81.11 level. This corresponds to the low in February. The market may use this level to lean against as well. The market is sufficiently quiet that it may warrant some interest from anxious NY traders looking to get in.
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| USDCHF confined between trendlines Posted: 18 Mar 2011 05:56 AM PDT
The USDCHF is confined by trendlines above and below. The downside trendline was just tested at the 0.8986 level and bounced higher. The topside has two trendlines to contend with. One is the trendline off the intraday highs in the hourly chart. That level comes in at the 0.9048 level. The next level is the trendline connecting highs from March 11th, 14th, and 16th. That level comes in at the 0.9065 level currently. The CHF has been a safe haven currency with all the turmoil. The move higher last night in sympathy with the JPY intervention, took the price up to the 38.2% retracement level at teh 0.9084. This remains a target should the price make it through trendline resistance levels. Having said that, until the price can get above these technical hurdles and ultimately the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above), the market players will be wary of the rally. That does not mean, buying against a key technical level or buying on break above a trendline is wrong. Those clues give bullish traders a “reason to trade” (or be more confident in the position). It also makes bears more fearful. However, if the price fails at at resistance level, moves back below a breakout level, it is not recommended to buck the trend the overall bearish bias. With the holding of support on the trendline for the 3rd time now, the dip buyers will likely be happy on dips toward support. Getting through resistance above is the trade and if the price can push through, it is likely to gather more interested players. |
| EURUSD moves to new day highs. Resistance 1.4152 Posted: 18 Mar 2011 05:48 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved to new highs for the day and moves closer to trendline resistance off the hourly chart and the daily chart. Looking at the hourly chart the price has channel resistance at the 1.4152 level currently (see chart below). The pair based overnight against the 1.3979 level. This was a low in NY afternoon trading yesterday and proved to be a nice “remembered” line to trade against. The topside trendline was broken and the price surged.
Off the daily chart, if the topside resistance on the hourly chart is breached, resistance against the 1.4178 looms above. This trendline connects the high in December to the highs in January and February 2011 (see chart below).
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.18.2011 Posted: 18 Mar 2011 05:37 AM PDT
We have finally come to the end of the week-and what a week it has been-one for the history books! The G-7 agreed to a joint intervention to curtail the rally in the JPY. This is the first joint intervention in over a decade. The nations agreed that “excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability”. The pressure on the USD/JPY will still remain intense-but this move will at least have a somewhat calming effect on the markets. The Libyan situation seems to get more and more dire as the days go on. The United Nations voted to clear the way for air strikes against the regime of Muammar Qaddafi. The UN’s action authorizes a no-fly zone over Libya, to stop the air assault that the Libyan government has imposed over the rebel forces. This weekend should show us what type of force is needed by the UN forces, and what Col Qaddafi’s reaction will be. Germany and Turkey-who are both NATO members have stated that they will not take part in military action against Libya. World equity markets rose, and US Futures are higher. Oil:$103.04 Gold:$1420.10 HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| The NY Morning Call for March 18th Posted: 18 Mar 2011 05:18 AM PDT |
| WEBINAR 12:30 PM ET, The Weekly Wrap Posted: 18 Mar 2011 04:56 AM PDT
The WEEKLY WRAP with Greg Michalowski & Bill Lawless, 12:30 Today In the Friday Weekly Wrap we will review the forex week and answer questions you may have with your trading, the markets and all that relates to your trading with FXDD. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Japan sold less than 2 Tln Yen_Official Posted: 18 Mar 2011 04:33 AM PDT A Japanese official is saying the BOJ sold less than 2 tln Yen in interventin action today. That amounts to 25 billion US dollars. In another report, JP Morgan economist, John Normand, is reported to be saying that the intervention is no trend changer UNLESS it is accompanied with a US rate increase. He cited the concerted intervention in 1987 and 2000. |
| Posted: 18 Mar 2011 04:04 AM PDT
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| UK Preliminary Mortgage Approvals Posted: 18 Mar 2011 02:40 AM PDT UK Preliminary Mortgage Approvals came in at 43,ooo, weaker than the 47,000 expected. Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6070, off about 10 points since release. |
| Bundesbanks says it’s participating in yen intervention; concerted effort of G-7 Posted: 18 Mar 2011 01:30 AM PDT Eur/jpy at 114.95. BOE also confirms intervention. Gbp/Jpy at 131.85. |
| Posted: 18 Mar 2011 01:17 AM PDT Swiss PPI m/m came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 0.4% expected. This number has no affect on currency trading as Usd/Chf trades at .9022 and Eur/Chf at 1.2705. |
| Talk of European intervention drive euro higher Posted: 18 Mar 2011 01:13 AM PDT Eur/Usd up 50 points to 1.4087. |
| Posted: 18 Mar 2011 12:02 AM PDT German PPI m/m came in at 0.7%, inline with expectations. Eur/Usd trades at 1.4065. |
| USDCAD has support against 100 hour and 50% Fibo level Posted: 17 Mar 2011 06:10 PM PDT
The hourly chart has support against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) and the 50% retracement level A move below the 50% retracement is likely to get te longs concerned. |
| How short is the USDCHF? Tests the 38.2% retracement. Posted: 17 Mar 2011 05:57 PM PDT How short is the USDCHF? The USDCHF has been the safe haven currency. Is the safe haven idea stopped now?. Better question are there too many shorts on the trade. SO far the correction has taken the pair to the 38.2% retracement of the move down fromt the March 11th high to the low reached yesterday at 0.9084. Stay above the 90.57 level High level from yesterday off the low) and that retracement level has a chance to be taken out (see chart below) . f the price moves below the 90.58, the bias is not so bullish.
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