Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD tests 200 hour MA and holds test
The NY Morning Forex Commentary
OPEC have no plans for extraordinary meeting
Gold tests support. Watching closely.
Canada Housing Starts comes in stronger at 181.9
ECB/Buba Weber says inflation may be worse but EURUSD falls
The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Webinar today at 4PM
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.8.2011
Greek 10 year yield climbs to highest since EURO start
German Factiory Orders for January up 2.9%
Eur/Usd trading at 100 hour m/a
French Trade Deficit 5.89B, worse than the forecasted 5.0B
Swiss unemployment rate drops to 3.4%, as expected
3-8 Economic Calendar
Forex Basics March 7th 2011 rebroadcast

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:45 AM PST

The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside and is down testing the 200 hour MA at the 1.3862 level (green line in the chart above). This level was the target support level talked about in our morning commentary (CLICK HERE). The market has found profit taking buyers against the level on the first test. Resistance above now comes in at the 1.3905-11 level. Staying below this level keeps the bears in charge - at least intraday.

The EURUSD has been under presssure and focus switches from higher rates to debt concerns. Greece / Portugal debt is getting hit and the ECB is focused on raising rates in the face of it. WIth the technical picture also deteriorating, the traders seem content to lighten up long positions.

Greece 10 year Bond Yields

Portugal 10 year Debt

The NY Morning Forex Commentary

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:19 AM PST

OPEC have no plans for extraordinary meeting

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:02 AM PST

They are talking about supplementing supply for lack of Libya production. Oil is hanging around unchanged.

Gold tests support. Watching closely.

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:42 AM PST

Gold is mixed today, having moved lower early, higher in London and tries to move back lower in early NY trade. The chart above shows the longer term trend from Feb 14th. There have been two moves below the trendline - each rejected (see yellow areas). Despite the breaks below the trendline, the market seemed to respect the line as a “borderline” they could trade against - i.e. above is bullish, below is bearish. I like those clues the market gives. They help define risk and keep risk to a minimum.

The chart below zooms in and shows that the price is down testing this trendline today at the 1430.98 level. A break below that line has the 100 hour MA at the 1429.29 level. Note that the 100 hour MA line is also going sideways (blue line in the chart below). This suggests the market is more balanced between buyers and sellers currently and could also signal a move away can be anticipated.

These two levels should be important levels for Gold today. A break to the downside of each and there should be increased selling pressure. Holding the level, and the bulls remain in charge. So far the bulls remain in control. Watch closely.

Canada Housing Starts comes in stronger at 181.9

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:17 AM PST

The expectations was for a more modest rise to 174.0 from 170.4. Yesterday Building Permits fell more than expected (by -5.1%). That number was for January. This one is for February.

The USDCAD made an about face move lower after the data

ECB/Buba Weber says inflation may be worse but EURUSD falls

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:02 AM PST

ECB should mull exiting full allotment in next few months
Doesn’t want to correct market expectations for ECB rates (i.e., ECB will raise rates)
Has started Interest rate normalization
Improving markets require exit to be considered

Despite the rise in Greece bond yields to the highest level ever, the plan to raise rates does not deter the hawkish comments for ECB officials. Nevertheless, the EURSUSD has not moved higher on his hawkish comments and this may indicate that the focus may be shifting for the EURUSD. There is always the possibility that the “story” could be higher rates, lower growth, and lower inflation eventually. Meanwhile debt of the weak sister becomes a negative for the EURUSD as Greece yields move to the highest level since the EU

The risk for shorts remains the 1.3923 area. The next target to get through the 1.3888 (see chart below). The next level after 1.3888 is the 1.3862 where the 200 hour MA is found (green line in the chart below).

The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Webinar today at 4PM

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:58 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.8.2011

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:30 AM PST

Good Morning:

Continued sovereign debt concerns pushed the single currency lower in overnight trading. Bonds from the most indebted countries in the EU declined versus their German counterparts. The markets are nervous that the members of the EU will not agree to a comprehensive debt crisis solution anytime soon. Leaders from the region are expected to meet again later this month to try and tackle the debt issues.
Oil traded lower, and the Swiss Franc lost some ground, as investors demand for the currency as a safe have waned.

World equity markets rose-and US Futures are higher at this time.

Oil:$105.32 Gold:$1433.10

Today’s Data:

10 AM IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism exp: 51.8 prior: 50.9

Greek 10 year yield climbs to highest since EURO start

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:30 AM PST

THe Greek 10 year bond yield has hit its highest level since the EU started and the focus shifts from dollar weakness to EURUSD weakness/problems. The price has moved below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and is targeting the next support at the 1.3888 level. This is the midpoint of the March trading range.

Topside resistance now comes in at 1.3923 level and against the 100 hour MA which is currently at the 1.3935 level.

German Factiory Orders for January up 2.9%

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 03:03 AM PST

German Factory Orders for January were up 2.9% from prior month beating the 2.6% estimate.

Eur/Usd seen a modest bump to 1.3930 upon release. The pair currently trades at 1.3922.

Eur/Usd trading at 100 hour m/a

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 12:41 AM PST

Eur/Usd is trading at its 100 hour m/a of 1.3927. A break below should bring the pair down to 1.3880, a level of previous hourly highs. If the pair holds a run back to 1.3960-70 is likely.

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