Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.16.2011
• US Housing Starts/Building Permits WEAKER. PPI higher
• EURUSD tests intraday resistance.
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Toyota in Japan to halt production until March 22nd
• US Mortgage Applications fell 0.7%
• Euro-zone CPI
• ZEW -13.5%; slightly better than the prior reading.
• Swiss Zew at 6 am
• Sterling slightly firmer after claimant count change came in better at -10,200
• UK Unemployment at 5:30
• Sterling gains as BOE Governor King comments on interest rates
• Cable finds support at 1.60473
• 3-16 Economic Calender
• Portugal Downgraded

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.16.2011 Posted: 16 Mar 2011 05:40 AM PDT Good Morning: We start this morning with news that Japan’s  nuclear reactor meltdown is still being sorted out-as smoke continues to billow out of the Fukushima nuclear plant.  Fears that the containment vessel in the #3 reactor has been breached seems to be the cause of the smoke and increased radiation levels. In other news: Bahrain suspended trading in the local stock markets amid protests and a  state of emergency that the government imposed yesterday.  Saudi troops have been sent to the tiny island nation to help quell the disturbances.  The Libyan government seems to be gaining traction against the rebels in the east-which is where most of Libya’s oil reserves sit. Oil rose on the news of renewed tensions in Bahrain, and the overall turmoil in the Middle East.  The markets will continue to see pressure on crude as long as unrest continues to dominate the headlines in the region. The Euro lost ground as Portugal was downgraded by Moody’s.  The rating was cut by 2 steps to A3-4 steps from junk status.  The downgrade renewed concerns that the regions debt problems may stall economic recovery. Japan’s equity markets rebounded and ended the day higher by over 5%.  Europe is mixed, and US Futures are slightly lower at this time. Oil:$99.03                                                            Gold:$1403.00 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR  REVISED 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 11-Mar 15.50% 8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS  FEB. 568K 596K 8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS      FEB.        570K 562K    563K 8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS MoM% FEB. -4.70% 14.60% 8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS MoM% FEB. 1.20% -10.40% 8:30A.M. PPI MoM FEB. 0.70% 0.80% 8:30A.M. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM FEB. 0.20% 0.50% 8:30A.M. PPI YoY FEB. 4.70% 3.60% 8:30A.M. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY YoY FEB. 1.80% 1.60% 8:30A.M. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE  4Q -$110.0B -$127.2B

US Housing Starts/Building Permits WEAKER. PPI higher Posted: 16 Mar 2011 05:31 AM PDT The US Housing Starts came in weaker at 479K vs 566K.  Permits 517K vs 570K PPI MoM comes in much higher at 1.6% vs 0.7%. Ex Food and Energy +0.2% YoY inflation rises to 5.6% from 3.6% last month. Ex Food and Energy comes in as expected at 1.8%. The EURUSD has stayed below the 1.3963 area on the news.  The USDJPY remains above floor support at the 80.59 level.

EURUSD tests intraday resistance. Posted: 16 Mar 2011 05:28 AM PDT EURUSD tests resistance at th 1.3963 level. This is a key level for the pair.  Housing starts and PPI awaited.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 16 Mar 2011 05:16 AM PDT

Toyota in Japan to halt production until March 22nd Posted: 16 Mar 2011 04:21 AM PDT CNBC is reporting that Japan will be halting production until March 22nd.

US Mortgage Applications fell 0.7% Posted: 16 Mar 2011 04:18 AM PDT The prior week was 15.5%. New purchase index fell -4% Refinancing index rose 0.9% The fall came despite a fall in the 30 year mortgage to 4.79% from 4.93% last week and the 15 year mortgage to 4.03 from 4.17%

Euro-zone CPI Posted: 16 Mar 2011 03:04 AM PDT CPI (y/y) - Survey: 2.4%   Actual: 2.4%   Prior: 2.4% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 1.1%   Actual: 1.0%   Prior: 1.1% The market had a limited reaction to the release.

ZEW -13.5%; slightly better than the prior reading. Posted: 16 Mar 2011 03:02 AM PDT

Swiss Zew at 6 am Posted: 16 Mar 2011 02:57 AM PDT

Sterling slightly firmer after claimant count change came in better at -10,200 Posted: 16 Mar 2011 02:32 AM PDT Average Earnings Index - Survey: 2.1%   Actual:   Prior: 1.8% Unemployment - Survey: 7.9%   Actual: 8.0%   Prior: 7.9%

UK Unemployment at 5:30 Posted: 16 Mar 2011 01:33 AM PDT

Sterling gains as BOE Governor King comments on interest rates Posted: 16 Mar 2011 12:12 AM PDT He was quoted as saying that “long term interest rates are unsustainably low”. The GBP/USD pair has made a new session high of 1.61186.

Cable finds support at 1.60473 Posted: 15 Mar 2011 11:15 PM PDT Cable has found some hourly support at the 1.60473 level, and has slowly climbed higher since then. Seen below, the pair has found support near this level several times since Friday. After moving through the 38.2% line on the move from Monday’s high to yesterday’s low, it appears that the next target to the upside is 1.6087; both the 50.0% line and 100 hour moving average come in near this level.

3-16 Economic Calender Posted: 15 Mar 2011 09:29 PM PDT

Portugal Downgraded Posted: 15 Mar 2011 03:27 PM PDT Moody’s has downgraded Portuguese debt 2 levels from A3 to A1. The Euro took a mild hit against the USD on the release moving only ~20 pips lower initially.

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