Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.17.2011
Philadelphia Fed Index soars higher
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
USDJPY tests 100 and 200 bar MA on intraday chart
US Industrial Production weaker than expected in February
GBPUSD consolidates trades between support and resistance
EURUSD moves toward support at 1.4000 area
Initial Claims as expected. CPI a touch higher. Canada Sales better
NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
Canada Wholesale Sales expected to rise 1.1%. Due at 8:30 AM
Philadelphia Fed Regional Index to show decline to 29.9 expected
Leading Indicators forecast for a gain of 0.9%
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization to show rise
Initial Claim for Unemployment expected to dip to 387 K
US CPI expected to come in at +0.4% Core +0.1%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.17.2011

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 07:06 AM PDT

Good Morning:

JPY strengthened to a post-World War 2 high, as speculation that Japan would delay intervention on their strong currency amid the countries potential nuclear disaster. A higher Yen is not favorable for local investors, as this makes goods in Japan more expensive for the local consumer.
FX markets stabilized in Europe after the turmoil caused by the massive liquidation of USD/JPY positions.
Euro maintained it’s strength-as strong demand from the Middle East lead the charge. It seems that the markets still believe that the ECB will keep its promise to hike interest rates.

US equity markets opened higher-as speculation that the Japanese will contain the nuclear disaster that occurred from the earthquake on March 11.

Commodities rose-and oil gained as fighting in Libya intensified-as concerns that continued conflicts in the Middle East will disrupt supplies of crude.

Oil:$ 100.23 Gold:$1401.10

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Philadelphia Fed Index soars higher

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 07:02 AM PDT

The Philly Fed index rose surprisingly to 43.4 from 35.9. The expectation was for a decline to 28.8

Components show higher prices paid but also sharply higher New Orders, but Employment fell

Prices Paid 63.8 vs 67.2 last mo
Prices Received 22.6 vs 21.0 last mo
New Orders 40.3 vs 23.7 last mo
Shipments 34.9 vs 35.2 last mo
Unfilled Orders 14.9 vs 14.9 last mo
Delivery Time 8.5 vs 10.0 last mo
Inventories 12.0 vs 2.1 last mo
Number of Employees 18.2 vs 23.6 last mo
Average Workweek 13.2 vs 12.8 last mo.

The Leading Indicators meanwhile rose by 0.8% which was a touch below the 0.9% gain expected.

The market reaction is limited. The USDJPY has remained below trendline and MA resistance. The EURUSD is remaining below the 1.4000 level

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 06:48 AM PDT

USDJPY tests 100 and 200 bar MA on intraday chart

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 06:22 AM PDT

The 100 and 200 bar MA and channel trendline resistance provides a level to sell against intraday. A move below the 38.2% retracement of the move higher today and the bottom channel support at the 0.7806 are downside support targets if the price can remain below the key upside resistance.

A move above the resistance area is likely to lead to further buying interest for the pair.

The USDJPY is still a risky currency pair to play. There is a G7 conference call where they may discuss the possibilityof coordination. The call takes place at 6 PM eastern. This should lead to better support buying in the USDJPY. So follow the key technical levels and I would expect support buyers against technical support levels. If the levels give way, longs will likely prefer to cover with small losses. The plunge from yesterday is too fresh in traders minds - although the reactor negative news seems to have eased a bit for the time being.

US Industrial Production weaker than expected in February

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 06:16 AM PDT

Cap utilizaton 76.3 vs 76.5 expectations
Industrial Production weaker at -0.1% vs +0.6%

The fundamental releases are likely to take a back seat to what might happen down the road. The implications of the Japanese situation are more in the forefront of the markets minds and uncertainty remains high still.

The market is nevertheless quieted down with EURUSD support at 1.4000 being held. The GBPUSD is between intraday support and resistance (see prior post).

GBPUSD consolidates trades between support and resistance

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 05:58 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has quieted down over the last few hours after a sharp rally off the triple bottom are at 1.5976. The pair is trading below trendline resistance at 1.6158 but above the 200 hour MA at the 1.6119 level. The market seems to be pausing for the next directional clue. Stocks are expected to open higher with the S&P futures up around 19 points and Dow Futures up around 120.

EURUSD moves toward support at 1.4000 area

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 05:40 AM PDT

The EURUSD has dipped to the 1.4000 level which was the ceiling resistance on March 15th and March 16th. The market will be looking at the level for support. If the price should break below the level, the next target is the 38.2% of the move up from the lows yesterday and today. That level comes in at 1.3881. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3941.

If support holds, it should worry shorts in the market with the 1.4030 price level the upside target to get through. That level has a double top over the last few hours of trading.

Initial Claims as expected. CPI a touch higher. Canada Sales better

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PDT

Canada Wholesales Sales were the surprise at 1.5% for the month versus 0.6% expectations. The prior month was also revised higher a bit to 0.9% from 0.8%. SUpport at the 38.2% of the move up from the March 9th low to the high. Canada has been weaker on global slowing potential.

Initial Claims came in near expectations at 385k vs 388k expected. The prior week was revised up a touch to 401K from 397k

CPI rose by 0.5% vs 0.4%. Ex Food and energy +0.2% vs +0.1%. Both are a 0.1% more than expectations. YoY came in at 2.1% vs 2.0% expectations. The Core came in at 1.1% vs 1.0%

NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 05:13 AM PDT

Canada Wholesale Sales expected to rise 1.1%. Due at 8:30 AM

Posted: 17 Mar 2011 04:39 AM PDT