Forex Market Updates & Commentary

US Wholesale inventories and sales pretty strong
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
Will the EURUSD find the buyers or sellers here
Gold tests recent ceiling resistance and finds some provit taking selling.
EURUSD breaks lower to next support. Watch 1.3908 area on retracement now.
RBA Stevens US, UK, EU recoveries protracted. Asia Rapid
EURUSD tests days Fibo retracement level at 1.3911
US Wholesale Inventories Due at 10AM
Canada House Price Index Better than Expectations
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.9.2011
The NY Opening Forex Webinar is available for viewing
Canada New House Price Index Data due at 8:30AM
German Industrial Production
UK Trade Balance
Swiss CPI

US Wholesale inventories and sales pretty strong

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PST

The Wholesale inventories rose 1.1% vs 0.9% expected. December was revised higher as well. Although inventories rose, the sales rose by a greater 3.4%. As a result the Inventory to Sales ratio fell to 1.13 which is low and suggests that in the future inventories will need to be replenished. Overall, this is a good number for the economy. Altough inventories are higher with strong sales it is ok. Overall, it adds to 1Q GDP and also suggests - if sales continue - inventories will need to be replenished going forward (higher growth).

There are voluntary inventory additions and there are involutary inventory additions. With sales strong and the inventort to sales ratio low, I consider this a good inventory addition.

Despite the better number, the dollar against the EURO has declined (EURUSD is back above the 1.3908). The action in the market seems rather random in the NY session at least.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:37 AM PST

Will the EURUSD find the buyers or sellers here

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:14 AM PST

The EURUSD is testing the 1.3908 level. This is key for today’s trade. Will the sellers emerge. Be aware. This was the level from yesterdays trade that found some short covering buyers that took the price up to 1.3924 area, before moving lower in the late afternoon.

Gold tests recent ceiling resistance and finds some provit taking selling.

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:13 AM PST

Gold last night tested trendline support and the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above). This was too good to pass up for traders and the market rotated back to the upside. The mideast tensions keep gold supported as a safe haven currency. The next level to get thorugh would be the 1436.75 to 1437 area. This has been a ceiling high for Gold over the last 48 hours of trading. A move above this level would be positive/bullish confirmation for Gold.

EURUSD breaks lower to next support. Watch 1.3908 area on retracement now.

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:03 AM PST

The EURUSD broke through the 38.2% of the days range and found a new round of selling. The low has moved to test teh converged 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and is finding some intraday buyers (at 1.3893). The 1.3896 area is also some support against the underside of the trendline on the hourly chart (see chart below).

A break below should trigger even more selling pressure.

Watch now for resistance at the 1.3908 area to find sellers. If it does, I would expect another rotation to the downside for the pair.

RBA Stevens US, UK, EU recoveries protracted. Asia Rapid

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:49 AM PST

Global economy has been quite a robust one
Asia accomodative policies out of place recently
Not clear more Asia demand growth is desirable
Good deal more Australia resource investment coming
Praised AUstralia 5% joblessness, moderate inflation
Higher AUD$, cautious consumers working in the RBA’s favor

The AUDUSD is moving avove the 100 hour MA at the 1.0120 level pushing the bias to the upside . A move above the confirming 200 hour MA at the 1.0136 level is the next hurdle for the pair. Key topside resistance for the pair comes in at the 1.0180-86 level at the recent high for the pair at the 1.0200

EURUSD tests days Fibo retracement level at 1.3911

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:46 AM PST

US Wholesale Inventories Due at 10AM

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:42 AM PST

Canada House Price Index Better than Expectations

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:37 AM PST

Canada New House Price Index(MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.1%

Jan vs. Dec
Total(MoM)%: 0.2% vs 0.1%
House Only: 0.3% vs -0.1%
Land Only: 0.1% vs 0.2%

Total(YoY)%: 1.9% vs 2.1%
House Only: 2.2% vs 2.4%
Land Only: 0.8% vs 0.7%

Total(3-Mon Annualized)%: 1.9% vs 1.6%
House Only: 0.9% vs 0.6%
Land Only: 2.7% vs 2.7%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.9.2011

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:30 AM PST

Good Morning:

The Euro garnered some support after reports that the ECB has stepped in to buy Greek and Portuguese bonds to calm the jittery markets-this is after the yield on the Portuguese bonds rose.. The unemployment rate in Greece moved up to 14.8% from 13.9% in November , another sign that the periphery economies in the EU are still under pressure. There were also rumors that the ECB has been sniffing around and checking rates on Irish bonds as well.

Most world markets (except the Middle Eastern Bourses) were higher-as are US Futures.
Oil has stayed high, and OPEC has made comments that they have no plans to increase production-as supplies are sufficient at this time according to OPEC sources. Continued fighting in Libya along with conflicts in the region will keep pressure on crude for the foreseeable future.

Oil:$105.00 Gold:$1434.50