Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The FXDD Mid Morning NY Forex Call for March 30th
• EURUSD moves lower in choppy trading. Eyes key support.
• IMF hikes Eurozone GDP to 1.6% from 1.5%
• AUDUSD consolidating at the highs
• The NY Morning Call for March 30th 2011
• Canada RMPI & IPPI Stronger than Prior
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.30.2011
• ADP Employment Change Slightly Lower than Forecast
• Webinar Lesson 12: “Using Multiple Time Frames in your Forex Trading”
• Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Data Due at 8:30AM
• Fitch says Portugal rating to fall in the short term
• US ADP Employment Change Data Due at 8:15AM
• Challenger Job survey comes out down -39% from a year ago
• UK CBI Retail sales index for March came in at 15, stronger than 6 in February
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer

The FXDD Mid Morning NY Forex Call for March 30th Posted: 30 Mar 2011 07:21 AM PDT Video Pending

EURUSD moves lower in choppy trading. Eyes key support. Posted: 30 Mar 2011 06:54 AM PDT The EURUSD  is down on the day and below the midpoint of the weeks trading range at 1.4084and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.4085. This is as good a level to gauge bullish or bearish momentum today along with the 200 bar MA at the 1.4092 level (green line in the chart above).  The double bottom at the 1.4058 level will be the next key level to get through today for obvious reasons.  Not only is the level important on the 5 minute chart, but looking at the hourly chart the level corresponds with the 50% retracement of the move up from the March 17th low to the high reached on March 22nd.  The importance has increased with the double bottom today. The fact it sticks out like it does and because the market seems to be choppy/volatile today, there is no reason to not think that the level will find buyers against the level. What bears are hoping however, is that the level is broken and further momentum selling ensues. Looking at the topside on the hourly chart, the NY sessions ability to stay below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below), gives the nod to the downside. The question is “Will the market have the momentum and sellers to probe further or is the employment report down the road going to be dictate the next trend?”

IMF hikes Eurozone GDP to 1.6% from 1.5% Posted: 30 Mar 2011 06:35 AM PDT 2012 to 1.8% from 1.7%. Meanwhile roundtable of CEOs in the US see 2.9% vs 2.5% in 2011. US Growth was cut to 2.8% from 3.0%.  The report is apparently leaked.  Admittedly, they are different surveys but it makes you wonder why the EURUSD is more near the high than the low?  Even with the decline in the IMF estimate, growth is a full 1.2% percentage points above Eurozone.

AUDUSD consolidating at the highs Posted: 30 Mar 2011 06:08 AM PDT The AUDUSD had a narrow trading range at the top of the range. The pair continues to benefit from a global growth story scenario. Global growth increases, the AUDUSD should benefit. If there are signs of faltering - and the US employment report on Friday will be key - then the pair will likely correct. From a technical perspective, the price bumped against the underside of a channel trendline on the hourly chart. That level came in at 1.0336. The high for the day came in at 1.0331. Traders had a low risk trading opportunity against the trendline level (sell) . Keep an eye on this trendline for clues on any rallies. A move above will likely lead to more momentum to the upside. The 5 minute chart is also giving traders some clues today. A trendline off the lows today have lined up nicely and provide a nice borderline to use for trade entry today. Should the trendline give way, there should be further pressure. If it holds, look for continued upside momentum. On the downside, the 100 hour moving average at 1.0250 remains a key target on any downside momentum. The moving average was tested during yesterdays trading (see blue line in the hourly chart at the top of the page) but buyers were happy to buy at that level.  On the topside, the high for the day at 1.0332 and the underside of the trendline on the hourly chart currently at the 1.0356 level are target levels. The AUDUSD was last at these level in 1982.

The NY Morning Call for March 30th 2011 Posted: 30 Mar 2011 05:39 AM PDT ****NOTE. The audio is lost midway through. UGH. Doing another report which will be up shortly. 10:08 ET

Canada RMPI & IPPI Stronger than Prior Posted: 30 Mar 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.30.2011 Posted: 30 Mar 2011 05:23 AM PDT Good Morning: The Aussie jumped to the highest level against the USD since 1983, when it was freely floated.  With global growth on the upswing-the demand for commodities is also growing.  As the Aussie economy is commodity based, it only makes sense that the Aussie, along with other commodity currencies will benefit from any increase in commodity demand.  Australia and New Zealand have benchmark interest rates of 4.75% and 2.5% respectively, which is attracting investors to these South Pacific nations higher-yielding assets.  The USD was stronger versus the JPY, as speculation that the Fed will consider scaling back on their QE2 government debt purchase program. The CHF lost some ground-as investors feel positive regarding an global economic recovery-which takes away the demand for “safe haven” of the currency.  Worldwide equity markets advanced-and US Futures are higher too. Oil: $104.35                                                 Gold:$1423.10 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS  25-Mar 2.70% 7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY MAR. 20.00% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE       MAR.       205K 217K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ADP Employment Change Slightly Lower than Forecast Posted: 30 Mar 2011 05:18 AM PDT ADP Employment Change:  Survey: 208K    Actual: 201K    Prior: 217K    Revised: 208K Mar vs. Feb Small Firms(1-49):  49,022 vs 48,920 Level Change:  102 vs 96 Medium Firms(50-499):  41,817 vs 41,735  Level Change:  82 vs 101 Large Firms:(>499):  17,453 vs 17,436 Level Change:  17 vs 11

Webinar Lesson 12: “Using Multiple Time Frames in your Forex Trading” Posted: 30 Mar 2011 05:02 AM PDT Lesson 12 will take place on Thursday at 4 PM ET. The topic will be ” Using Multiple Time Frames in your Forex Trading” . It isn’t enough to focus on just the 5 minute chart if trading intraday or the daily chart if trading longer term.  I will show you how watching multiple time frames - one short term, one medium term and one longer term - will be able to improve your trade entry, while defining your risk and keeping your risk to a minimum.    You do need to REGISTER BY CLICKING HERE.  See you on Thursday at 4 PM.  PS. Tell your trading friends on your social media page.

Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 30 Mar 2011 04:52 AM PDT

Fitch says Portugal rating to fall in the short term Posted: 30 Mar 2011 04:52 AM PDT The Portugal yields continue to rise on the back of downgrades.  The Yield on 5 year notes has risen from 7.41% to 9.04% in the last month (see blue line in the chart below).  As interest rates increase, lowering the deficit becomes more and more difficult.

US ADP Employment Change Data Due at 8:15AM Posted: 30 Mar 2011 04:43 AM PDT

Challenger Job survey comes out down -39% from a year ago Posted: 30 Mar 2011 04:41 AM PDT This indicator is a measure of US hiring announcements. In March the total announcements were for 10,869 jobs.  As a comparison, in February 72,581 job announcements were made.  The series has been quite volatile of late with Oct 2010 showing 124k, November 26k, December 11K, January 2011 29K, February 72K and finally this month at 10.869K. At 8:15 AM the more important ADP employment report will be released with the expectations of 208k Private sector jobs anticipated.  Last month the 217k jobs were added.  The value is intended to mirror the private sector employment component of the US jobs data to be released on Friday.  Last month the two were very close with Private Payrols rising by 222k.

UK CBI Retail sales index for March came in at 15, stronger than 6 in February Posted: 30 Mar 2011 03:03 AM PDT The 15 reading also was stronger than the -1 expectation. Gbp/Usd has gained 25 points on heels of release, trading at 1.6080.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer Posted: 30 Mar 2011 02:33 AM PDT KOF Economic Barometer came in at 2.24, stronger than the 2.18 expected and prior reading of 2.19. Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf unaffected by data as they continue to trade at 1.2988 and 92.22 respectively.

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