Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD forming intraday bull flag? The trendlines are drawn.
USDJPY momentum to downside not maintained. Back in channel
Jobless Claims Rise Again & Productivity Shows Better Data
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
US Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity & Labor Costs Data Due at 8:30AM
EU source: Should have the troika report tomorrow
Japan draft reform plan says to double consumption tax in stages by FY 2015; expects to halve nation’s main budget deficit by FY 2015.
Trichet says “there is no crisis of the euro”.
According to a government source, Greek-mid term plan sees faster privitization, cuts in government spending, and revenue measures.
Euro firmer in recent trade
Sterling firmer after UK construction PMI came in at 54.0; better than expected
UK Construction PMI due @ 4:30 am
Euro a bit firmer/trading on session highs
Japan Diet rejects no confidence motion against PM Kan
6-2 Calender

EURUSD forming intraday bull flag? The trendlines are drawn.

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 05:40 AM PDT

The EURUSD is at a crossroad. ON the 5 minute chart the pair is forming a bull flag (see the chart above). The price is testing the bottom trendline and should find support against the level.

On the hourly chart below the picture show a reason to expect a rotation back to the downside after testing topside trendline resistance.

Clearly the pair is at a crossroad. The risk however is clearly defined. I would expect that those who are long from the London session will be inclined to take profit against the high. With a break above soliciting more buying. On the downside, the trendline and then the 1.44328 level should be telling. A move below each would suggest further liquidation potential for today.

USDJPY momentum to downside not maintained. Back in channel

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 05:35 AM PDT

The 80.76-80.836 level is the upside target and resistance. Stay below and the downside may be further explored.

The market is preparing for US Employment and potentially more news for Greece including the Troika report which will outline the progress of the Greek bailout to date.

Jobless Claims Rise Again & Productivity Shows Better Data

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Initial Jobless Claims: Survey: 417K Actual: 422K Prior: 424K Revised: 428K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3675K Actual: 3711K Prior: 3690K Revised: 3712K

Nonfarm Productivity: Survey: 1.7% Actual: 1.8% Prior: 1.6%

Unit Labor Costs: Survey: 0.8% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 1.0%

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 05:23 AM PDT

US Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity & Labor Costs Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 05:12 AM PDT

EU source: Should have the troika report tomorrow

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 04:53 AM PDT

Needless to say “all hands are on deck” as the market prepares for the troika report. Comments from Trichet/Germans Merkel and others have counteracted the downgrade from Moody’s yesterday and given the EURUSD an upward bias again. Back and forth for the pair.

Japan draft reform plan says to double consumption tax in stages by FY 2015; expects to halve nation’s main budget deficit by FY 2015.

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 03:41 AM PDT

The JPY strengthened mildly on the release.

Trichet says “there is no crisis of the euro”.

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 03:13 AM PDT

Calls for the creation of a single Euro finance ministry.
New ministry wouldn’t control large federal budget.
Strengthening rules is an “urgent priority”
Ministry would monitor fiscal policy, and financial sector.
EU should get veto over national policy in some cases.
European veto may include fiscal policies.
ECBs primary objective is price stability.
Sound policies and a healthy economy “strongly correlated”.
European unity is “more important than ever”.

According to a government source, Greek-mid term plan sees faster privitization, cuts in government spending, and revenue measures.

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 02:59 AM PDT

Euro firmer in recent trade

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 02:56 AM PDT

In the previous post the topside target was 1.44064. The pair has surpassed that target and has made a new session high of 1.44403 following comments from the Slovak finance minister that an investor haircut on Greek debt is still the best option. We look to 1.44577 as the next bullish target.

Sterling firmer after UK construction PMI came in at 54.0; better than expected

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 01:31 AM PDT

UK Construction PMI due @ 4:30 am

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 01:08 AM PDT

Euro a bit firmer/trading on session highs

Posted: 02 Jun 2011 01:06 AM PDT

We have seen a relatively quiet session with the absence of the Swiss and the Eurozone as they take the day off to observe Ascension Day. As you can see below, the Euro has been trading steadily higher since the end of yesterday’s trading session; the EUR/USD currently testing some short-term resistance around the 1.4380-90 area. On the 15 minute chart, we find the 100 bar moving average at 1.4380, the 50.0% fibo line at 1.43823, and lastley the 200 bar moving average at 1.4390. It also appears that an upward trendline is also beginning to form. If the upward trend continues we look to 1.44001 as our next bullish target.