Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US Existing Home Sales Stay the Same, M/M Better

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 07:05 AM PDT

Existing Home Sales:   Survey: 4.80M   Actual: 4.81M   Prior: 5.05M   Revision: 5.00M 
 
 May 2011   vs   April 2011
Total Sales:  4.810  vs  5.000
Single Family:  4.240  vs  4.380
Condos/Co-ops: 0.570  vs  0.620 

 May 2011   vs   April 2011 (Monthly % Change)
Total Sales: -3.8%  vs  -1.8% 
Single Family:  -3.2%  vs  -1.4%
Condos/Co-ops:  -8.1  vs  -4.6%

 May 2011   vs   April 2011 (3-Mth Avg)
Total Sales:  9.3  vs  9.0   
Single Family:  9.0  vs  8.8
Condos/Co-ops:  11.3  vs  10.5

Existing Home Sales(MoM): Survey: -5.0%   Actual: -3.8   Prior: -0.8%   Revision:  -1.8

Webinar Today: Talking Technicals with James Chen

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 06:25 AM PDT

Please join us today at 12:30 PM (U.S. Eastern Time) for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability Range Trading strategy for trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/568441376 .

Watching EURJPY.

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 06:25 AM PDT

The EURJPY is bumping against resistance at the 200 hour MA. Staying below this level keeps the price between the 100 and 200 bar MA (between the “Goal Posts” is how I term the formation).  On the downside, the 114.92 is intermediate intraday support, with the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) the next target at the 114.57. 

When the price is between the Goal Post as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA, the market is saying the bias is bullish but the market is not ready to push higher – just yet.  If the price breaks above the 200 bar MA (green line) look for upside momentum. Conversely, if the 100 hour MA is broken below, the focus should return to the downside.

GBPUSD rotating back and forth in range bound day

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 05:56 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has found intraday support at 1.6167 – near the 100 hour MA blue line at the 1.6176 level currently – and looks to test the intermediate term level for the day at the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the June 13th high. That level comes in at the 1.6215 level.  That area was also a floor area from June 10th and June 13th. 

Yesterday, the price moved above this level but was quickly rejected. Today the price spent most of the 1st half of the day above this level, but fell off in late London morning selling. Like the EURUSD, I would expect this level to cause some pause. However, if the price can extend above this level, look for the tide to turn back to the upside as the market tries to find a directional rhythm in a non-trending type day.

The low to high trading range for the day is 87 pips so far. This is near the low of the average daily range over the last few months (only one other day has had a narrower trading range).   As a result, I will be looking for an extension either above 1.6253 or below the low at 1.6166.  Staying below the 1.6215 level, keeps the downside extension in play.

EURUSD continues to find sellers against 50% Fibo level

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 05:40 AM PDT

The EURUSD has continued to remain in between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels.  The 50% comes in at the 1.4384 level. The 38.2% comes in at 1.4311. In between the 200 hour MA is at the 1.4343 level currently.  I would expect that the 200 hour MA is the barometer for the bullish/bearish sentiment today.  If the price tests and stays above the level, look for a test and extension to the upside. If the price moves below the MA level, look for a fall and test of the 38.2%. 

I do expect that with the narrow trading range (81 pips), the chance for an extension at some point today is likely.  The Greece situation continues to be the negative for the EURO. In the US, Existing Home sales at 10 AM may is to be released.

US Existing Homes Sales to be Released at 10AM

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 05:35 AM PDT

Canada Leading Indicators Improve as Retail Sales Fall

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Leading Indicators:  Survey:  0.5%   Actual: 1.0%   Prior: 0.8%  Revised:  0.9%

Canada retail sales come in weaker at 0.3% opposed to the survey of 0.4%. The revision of the prior 0.0% figure also comes in weaker at -0.1%. Retail sales less autos also with a weak number moving to 0.0% from 0.6%.

USD/CAD trading slightly higher on the news.

Austria Finance Minister says no money to Greece without decision for reforms

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 05:26 AM PDT

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for June 21st is available for viewing

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 05:16 AM PDT

Canada Leading Indicators & Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 04:33 AM PDT

More comments from ECB’s Ordonez

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 03:23 AM PDT

  • Decision structure in Euro is damaging us all.
  • Decision on Greece must be reached soon.
  • Cannot refinance Greece if budget plan is not passed.
  • Hopes Greek parliament approves austerity package.
  • Default would collapse Greek banking system.

UK CBI (m/m) 1; better than the -5 expectation and -2 prior reading.

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 03:01 AM PDT

S&P’s Kraemar

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 02:55 AM PDT

  • Euro exit would hasten Greek debt restructuring.
  • Downside risks to US ratings have increased, one in three change rating may be downgraded in the next 3 years.
  • There is little sign of political consensus on US debt.

Euro lower

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 02:31 AM PDT

We’ve seen selling in the Euro following worse than expected ZEW numbers out of Germany, and the Eurozone. Following the releases, ZEW economists said the Greek crisis has had an impact on the euro, but not as much on the business cycle in Germany. Additionally, there is a strong commitment to financing Greek debt in Europe. Currently we are hearing less than positive comments from Fitch with concerns about Italy.

In a 15 minute EUR/USD chart we see that the next downside target appears to be 1.43094 where the 38.2% retracement line converges with the 100 hour moving average. The 23.6% line becomes the target in the case of a rebound.

Comments from Fitch’s head of sovereign ratings

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 02:23 AM PDT

  • Says no plans to change rating or outlook on Itlay, and is awaiting details of government deficit-cutting package.
  • “Key issue” is whether Italy government remains committed to fiscal consolidation strategy.
  • Would be a “source of concern” if Italy government announces unfunded tax cuts.
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