Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Greece bailout commentary…
• Webinar Rebroadcast: Charting the Majors with James Chen
• Greek IMF representative says expects agreement between Greece and Troika on Thursday
• Gold takes clues from technicals and falls hard
• House Majority leader Cantor says Biden led budget talks at an impasse
• EURUSD: Watch 1.4150
• Traders Course TODAY: Shawn Powell teaches a special class on Support and Resistance 4pm
• US New Home Sales Drop 2.1%
• Germany’s Merkel says no operative decisions on Greece at EU summit
• GBPCHF remains below trendline resistance at 1.3524 today
• IEA said to release oil stock. 60 Million barrels released.
• US New Home Sales Due at 10AM
• Oil prices fall sharply. USDCAD breaks higher
• Webinar Today: Charting the Majors with James Chen
• EURUSD breaks below key support and scoots lower.

Greece bailout commentary… Posted: 23 Jun 2011 08:00 AM PDT Sources: New Greek bailout facility likely to b until mid 2014. Likely to be around 138 Bln Source: EU/IMF loan for Greece depends on bond rollover and privitization Source: Biggest challenge, privitization New bailout from EU/IMF around 70 bln (includes rollovers) Greek Finance Minister: 1-5% solidarity tax on incomes Greek lawmakers to pay 5% levy Will impose minimum taz on self employed Tax free threshold on income will be 8000 annually Implementation law to be submitted on Monday Two laws to be voted on by afternoon of June 30th

Webinar Rebroadcast: Charting the Majors with James Chen Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:34 AM PDT Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/465572601 .

Greek IMF representative says expects agreement between Greece and Troika on Thursday Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:33 AM PDT Meanwhile, the IMF says that the Greek program will be fully financed and on track. He has added that the Greek banks are willing to participate in voluntary debt rollover.

Gold takes clues from technicals and falls hard Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:32 AM PDT Yesterday the price approached resistance against the $1559 level (SEE POST BY CLICKING HERE). However, early sellers against the level at 1557.80, started a downward move. The move down was extended on the break of the bottom channel trendline in Far East trading.  The pair also fell below trendline support on the daily chart (see chart below). The price is approaching support on the daily chart at the $1510 level. The 50 % Fibo level and the lows from Mid June come in at the level.  Looking at the trend move down today, the price has held the 38.2% of the separete legs lower today. The price move from 1547.25 to 1536.85, found sellers against the $1541 level.  The next move lower from $1541 to 1518, held the 38.2% at the $1528 level.  Now the last leg down, has resistance at the 1519.25 area. Staying below keeps the bears firmly in charge. A move above will be eyed for further profit taking potential.

House Majority leader Cantor says Biden led budget talks at an impasse Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:19 AM PDT Says he will not participate in today’s session of Biden talks.

EURUSD: Watch 1.4150 Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:11 AM PDT Sometimes I miss a key level and I want to thank Stephen Ward for bringing up the 38.2% of the 2011 range. This level comes in at the 1.4150 level.   A close below the 38.2% and the 100 day would add to the bearish technicals. A move above each could ignite a short covering rally.  Watch this 1.4150 level closely for clues. Profit takers and bears are likely to fight it out with one winning.

Traders Course TODAY: Shawn Powell teaches a special class on Support and Resistance 4pm Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:03 AM PDT Traders Course TODAY: Shawn Powell teaches a special class on Support and Resistance Dynamics at 4pm TODAY – Register for the live class

US New Home Sales Drop 2.1% Posted: 23 Jun 2011 07:02 AM PDT New Home Sales:   Survey: 310k   Actual: 319K   Prior:323K  Revised:  326K May  vs. April 2011 Total Sold:  30K vs 31K Not Started:  8K vs 8K Under Construction:  9K vs 9K Complete:  13K vs 15K New Home Sales(MoM):  Survey: -4.0%   Actual: -2.1%   Prior: 7.3%  Revised:  6.5%

Germany’s Merkel says no operative decisions on Greece at EU summit Posted: 23 Jun 2011 06:50 AM PDT The EURUSD has corrected up to the 1.4183 level which is the 100 day MA and 38.2% retracement. This is indicative of sellers using the key level as a “reason” to sell. The price is also back below the  channel trendline on the trend to the downside started after the FOMC decision yesterday.  That level comes in at the 1.4156 level and will be upside resistance now.  The bears remain in charge below the trendline and below the 100 day MA. The EURUSD reached a low of 1.4126 on June 17th before moving sharply higher. This is the next downside target to get through. The low below that is the 1.4072 level.

GBPCHF remains below trendline resistance at 1.3524 today Posted: 23 Jun 2011 06:22 AM PDT The GBPCHF continues to remain below the underside of trendline resistance keeping the bearish bias in tact. The pair moved below this trendline yesterday (which extends back to March 2010 – see chart below) and today tested the underside (high was 1.3523). The inability to breach above the trendline today, opened the downside up for further selling. The pair has been pressured on the back of the weaker global economic situation and the flight to quality in the CHF which remains a safe haven currency. On the hourly chart the bias is still bearish as price has marched steadily to the downside from the high at 1.3523. The pair has the 38.2% of the move down today coming in at the 1.3439 level. This would be the minimum that the price would need to surpass in order to take some of the bearishness out of the trend move lower.  Until then the bears are firmly in control and the trend should continue.

IEA said to release oil stock. 60 Million barrels released. Posted: 23 Jun 2011 06:07 AM PDT Said to release 60 Million barrels over the next 5 months. This is to insure supply problems resulting from unrest and impact on supply in Libya.  Oil is down over $5 now and USDCAD moves to new highs. The US Dept of Energy releasing 30 Million of the 60 million barrels.

US New Home Sales Due at 10AM Posted: 23 Jun 2011 06:03 AM PDT

Oil prices fall sharply. USDCAD breaks higher Posted: 23 Jun 2011 05:55 AM PDT Oil prices are down $4 and the USDCAD has soared higher. The price is moving away from the 100 day MA. The price is back above the 100 and 200 hour MA and above the trendline resistance. The pair is testing the 50% retracement of the move down from the June 16 high to the low on June 22nd.  Staying above the 0.9767-75 now becomes the risk and support below.

Webinar Today: Charting the Majors with James Chen Posted: 23 Jun 2011 05:50 AM PDT Please join us this morning (Thurs., June 23) at 9:30 AM ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/465572601 .

EURUSD breaks below key support and scoots lower. Posted: 23 Jun 2011 05:45 AM PDT The 1.4182-86 level had multi reasons to find support…and it broke. The price has scooted lower and is now below the channel support

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