Monday, June 13, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Gold Due for Larger Correction

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 06:58 AM PDT

Gold Daily Chart

Gold (daily chart) as of Monday (6/13/2011) has dropped back down to hit a key uptrend support line extending back to the January low around 1308. This occurs after price hit a high of 1553 one week ago, which failed to re-test the 1575 all-time high that was reached in early May. The near-term directional bias currently appears bearish in line with this price failure, and a larger bearish correction could soon be due. With price currently right at the noted uptrend support line, a significant breakdown below this line could trigger the correction. In this event, a key initial downside support target resides around the 1475 price region, which represents both a prior support/resistance level as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last major bullish trend run (from the January 1308 low to the May 1575 all-time high).

(Please click on the chart to enlarge. Chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

Trichet says ECB determined to maintain price stability

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 06:08 AM PDT

  • Crisis showed EU Budget rules are too weak
  • Need for strong reform on economic governance
  • Policy should be in line with currency membership
  • Rules should include early financial sanctions
  • Must correct internal/eternal imbalances
  • Current Unemployment remains much too high
  • Has seen upward risk to price stability in recent months
  • Eurozone recovery much more firmly established

NY Morning Forex Commentary for June 13th 2011

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 05:59 AM PDT

The Week Ahead from FXDD

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 05:42 AM PDT

IMF’s Shinohara

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 02:53 AM PDT

  • Greece is ready to do more on fiscal and privatization fronts; Greek debt situation still under discussion.
  • US and Japan weaker than expected, weighing on global growth.
  • JPY still considered a safe haven currency.
  • World growth has hit a soft path but will accelerate in H2.

USD/CHF testing 23.6% on daily

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 02:37 AM PDT

We’ve seen some action with the CHF in recent trading despite the lack of data tonight. The EUR/CHF has reached a new all-time low, and the USD/CHF tested the 23.6% line on the move from May 12th high to last Monday’s low. If Swiss strength continues, we look to .83257 as the target.

EUR/CHF makes a new all-time low of 1.20025.

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 02:30 AM PDT

Italian industrial production (m/m) 1.0% vs. 0.2% forecast.

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 01:02 AM PDT

Roubini says China needs higher rates, not just reserve rations; should let CNY appreciate at a faster rate.

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 12:29 AM PDT

German Fin. Minister Schaueble sees certain upward tend of prices in Germany, but sees no reason to envoke danger of inflation.

Posted: 12 Jun 2011 11:27 PM PDT

6-13 Calender

Posted: 12 Jun 2011 08:41 PM PDT

Japan’s April Machine Orders Fall

Posted: 12 Jun 2011 05:02 PM PDT

To little market reaction Japan’s April Machine Orders fell well below expectations but the market took it in stride in what has been a very quiet open to the week in the Far East with Australia on holiday. The details of the release are as follows:

Machine Orders (MoM) – Survey:1.7%   Actual:-3.3%   Prior:1.0%

Machine Orders (YoY) – Survey:4.9%   Actual:-0.2%   Prior:9.1%
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