Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Charting the Majors Webinar with James Chen
Philadelphia Fed Survey Much Weaker
Canada Int’l Securities Transactions Rise
US Jobless Claims, Housing Starts & Building Permits Improve
GBPUSD breaks trendline support before US data
EURUSD awaits US data and perhaps some relief in a bearish market
Plethora of US Economic Data Due at 8:30AM
AUDUSD moves below 38.2% Fibo Retracement at 1.0511. NZDUSD also pressured
EU’s Rehn comments on Greece
Euro falls after Eurozone banking sources say Germany is pushing to delay second rescue package for Greece until September
Eurozone sources say they expect IMF to pay next Greek aid tranche on basis of EU commitment to support Greece further out.
Eurozone CPI (y/y) 2.7% as expected.
Eurozone employment change (Q1) 0.0% vs. 0.1% previous.
UK retail sales -1.4% vs. -0.6% expected
SNB’s Hildebrand

Charting the Majors Webinar with James Chen

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 06:16 AM PDT

Please join us today (June 16) at 9:30 AM ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/335262736 .

Philadelphia Fed Survey Much Weaker

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 06:10 AM PDT

Philadelphia Fed Survey comes out with a much worse number at -7.7 vs a projected positive 7.0 and a previous figure of 3.9.

EUR/USD trades lower on the news.

Canada Int’l Securities Transactions Rise

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 05:35 AM PDT

US Jobless Claims, Housing Starts & Building Permits Improve

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Current Account Balance: Survey: -130.0B Actual: -119.3B Prior: -113.3B Revised: -112.2B

Jobless Claims: Survey: 420K Actual: 414K Prior: 427K Revised: 430K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3670K Actual: 3675K Prior: 3676K Revised: 3696K

Housing Starts: Survey: 545K Actual: 560K Prior: 523K Revised: 541K

Housing Starts (MoM)%: Survey: 4.2% Actual: 3.5% Prior: -10.6% Revised: -8.8%

Building Permits: Survey: 557K Actual: 612K Prior: 551K Revised: 563K

Building Permits (MoM)%: Survey: -1.1% Actual: 8.7% Prior: -4.0% Revised: -1.9%

GBPUSD breaks trendline support before US data

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 05:21 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has fallen through support at the 1.6103 area on the daily chart. This was channel support for the pair that has been tested a few three times over the last few months. Staying below this level should keep pressure on the pair.

The 5 minute chart is also showing it’s bearish bias. Support target on it shows the next downside target at 1.6059. On the topside the 1.6112 is current trendline resistance on that chart and moving lower. Keep track of the clues from the chart. The bias remains down.

EURUSD awaits US data and perhaps some relief in a bearish market

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 05:15 AM PDT

The situation in Greece is fluid and continues to dominate trading. However, with the US Initial Claims due out along with Philly Fed later, the market is pausing a little as weak US data has (at least temporarily) gave reason to pause too much EURO negativity.

From a technical perspective the price is in between trendline support and resistance on the hourly chart with the bias still to the downside. Tight resistance comes against the topside trendline at the 1.4118 level currently. On the downside a move below the 1.4062 level should lead to further downside momentum.

Looking at the daily chart, the price fell below the 100 day MA at the 1.4151 level today after holding the level yesterday. Staying below this level keeps the bears in charge as a close below will be the 1st close below the key level since Feb 16th 2011. The 1.4048 level (low from mid May) might provide some additional support today.

The fundamentals from the EURUSD seem daunting. However, the implications of a break up are high. So we can expect the problem solvers to try and solve the problems and as a result lots of talk. Risk is increased. The bias remains negative.

PS Does it make sense to tighten credit in July? The ECB and the market may think twice about tightening chances.

Plethora of US Economic Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 05:12 AM PDT

AUDUSD moves below 38.2% Fibo Retracement at 1.0511. NZDUSD also pressured

Posted: 16 Jun 2011 04:53 AM PDT

The AUDUSD is moving below the 38.2% retracement at the 1.0511 level as the market liquidates the risk currency pairs. If the Greece situation escalates further it threatens growth prospects globally and that should be a negative for the risk pairs like AUDUSD and also NZDUSD. That pair is also under pressure as it moves toward its key support at the 0.7963-75 (Fibo and old high from 2010.