Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD pushes through ceiling. Ignites the stops. 1.4383 next target
- USD/CHF Hits New All-Time Low, Continues Bearish Trend
- Rumor: CB Consumer Confidence less than expected
- Report that EU Central Banks selling Gold and buying EURUSD to fund Greek bailout
- EURUSD ceiling pounded again at 1.4327
- US Consumer Confidence Expected Higher
- CaseShiller Home Prices Increase
- Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM ET
- GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA and backs off on first test
- German CPI comes in at 2.3%. This is as expected.
- The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 28th
- S&P CaseShiller Due at 9AM
- EU Sources: Up to 15 of 91 Eurozone expected to fail EU stress test
- ECB Trichet says Greek adjustment program of utmost importance
- China’s Premeire Wen say Eurozone problems show world economy in state of uncertainty
| EURUSD pushes through ceiling. Ignites the stops. 1.4383 next target Posted: 28 Jun 2011 07:25 AM PDT
The EURUSD moved through the 1.4327 ceiling and this ignited a move to the upside. The move has reached a high of 1.4368 so far. The next target is the 1.4383 where the midpoint of the June range is found (see chart below). A move above that level targets last weeks high at 1.4410.
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| USD/CHF Hits New All-Time Low, Continues Bearish Trend Posted: 28 Jun 2011 07:25 AM PDT
USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Tuesday (6/28/2011) has hit a new all-time low, breaking down below the previous all-time low of 0.8325 that was just hit in early June. Having dipped below the 0.8300 figure, price action has tentatively confirmed a continuation of the entrenched long-term bearish trend that has been in place for a little over a year now, since the June 2010 high. This bearish trend has displayed very technical characteristics, with regular trend moves to the downside that breakdown key support levels, interspersed with periodic bullish corrections/retracements to key resistance levels. Now that a new all-time low has been established, the directional bias continues to be significantly to the downside. Further bullish retracements notwithstanding, an important bearish target resides around the 0.8000 psychological level. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT |
| Rumor: CB Consumer Confidence less than expected Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:33 AM PDT The report is 58.5 vs expectations of 61. The data is not expected until 10 AM. The data may have been leaked early however. Although this is being reported on news wires, it is unconfirmed. So please do not trade off the news. |
| Report that EU Central Banks selling Gold and buying EURUSD to fund Greek bailout Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:30 AM PDT This is the “market talk” that may be a reason for the movement higher in the EURUSD today (along with Trichet comments). Looking at Gold, the price held the 38.2% of the last leg down in the precious metal at the 1503.98 level. This would be bearish from a technical perspective – regardless of the reported trade. Watch this level for clues from a technical perspective. If the price can stay below, the bias will remain to the downside.
On the daily chart, Gold is also below trendline resistance at the 1501.63 level. Staying below this level would also be bearish from a technical perspective.
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| EURUSD ceiling pounded again at 1.4327 Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:07 AM PDT
The EURUSD has a defined ceiling in place today with teh 1.4328 level providing the resistance/profit taking level. The level is also near the trendline resistance from the daily chart at the 1.4343. A move above each will likely lead to further upward momentum.
The EURUSD is supported this morning despite rioting in the streets in Greece as the government prepares for what is reported as a very close vote tomorrow for increased Greece austerity measures. A failed vote would certainly be perceived as a major setback for the EU and should lead to selling pressure in the pair. Bond default, funds for bailout from the EU/IMF would come into focus and the danger of each would certainly be an unwelcome development. Nevertheless, the EURUSD rallied in NY trade. The driving force? The pair got a boost this morning after ECB Trichet used the words “strong vigilance” in comments reported on newswires. The 1.4327 level is key above with a break above 1.4343 opening the door for futher upside momentum. On the downside, the 1.4311, 1.4292 (high from yesterday), and then the 100/200 hour MA and 50% of the recent range from 1.4255-715 become the focus. |
| US Consumer Confidence Expected Higher Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:06 AM PDT
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| CaseShiller Home Prices Increase Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:01 AM PDT S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind: Actual: 138.84 Prior: 138.16 Revised: 138.16 S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA: Survey: -0.20% Actual: -.09% Prior: -0.23% Revised: -.26% S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY): Survey: -3.95% Actual: -3.96% Prior: -3.61% Revised: -3.77% |
| Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM ET Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:57 AM PDT
Please join us today, Tuesday, June 28 at 12:30 PM ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market — combining Japanese candlesticks with Western technical analysis for a high-probability trading combination. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/313842241 . |
| GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA and backs off on first test Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:51 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has moved higher and the pair has caught up with the 100 hour MA for the first time since the GBPUSD sharp fall low on June 22nd that saw the price move from 1.6261 to the low of 1.5910 earlier today. In reality, the pair has been consolidating since the 23rd. The catching up of the 100 hour MA is typically a point where the “market” has to make a decision – Does the price continue to correct higher and move toward the 38.2% retracement next at the 1.6044 level (see chart above) OR Does the trend to the downside continue which would imply a move below the 1.5910-15 low range seen this week. Decision time for the GBPUSD. |
| German CPI comes in at 2.3%. This is as expected. Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:32 AM PDT |
| The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 28th Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:06 AM PDT In the morning report I look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD. Trichet says “Strong Vigilance”, 15 of 91 EU banks reported fail stress test, Greek vote tomorrow, Thursday and then Sunday by EU for funding if all goes well. To hear the report, click on the attached link. |
| Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:56 AM PDT
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| EU Sources: Up to 15 of 91 Eurozone expected to fail EU stress test Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:42 AM PDT This is from EU sources. This is supposed to officially be released in Mid July. |
| ECB Trichet says Greek adjustment program of utmost importance Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:31 AM PDT
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| China’s Premeire Wen say Eurozone problems show world economy in state of uncertainty Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:19 AM PDT He adds that China will extend helping hand to Europe as they have faith in the European economy and that inflation is a global problem. |
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