Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Portuguese PM says country faces deep problems that require urgent solutions
S&P report says US interest rates (not short term) can only go up from here
Feds Bullard says financial market effects on Feds QE2 were same as if Fed reduced rates
Greek austerity measures pass as expected
US Chicago PMI Rises and NAPM Milwaukee Stays According To Forecast
AUDUSD. Watching the technicals as momentum slows
German Ministry of Finance have received agreement with German banks on a Greek aid program
USDCHF/EURCHF surge to new day/week highs
Report: Greek opposition will support 22 of 49 Greek Austerity measures
The vote is ungoing for the Greek Austerity program
Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 9:30 AM ET
EURUSD tests yesterday’s ceiling at 1.4447 (and other levels) and bounces
The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
Canada GDP Slightly Improves
US Jobless Claims Continue To Grow Higher

Portuguese PM says country faces deep problems that require urgent solutions

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:19 AM PDT

The threat of contagion would have Portugal as a target. There debt rates are also elevated well above German rates with 5 year notes currently yielding 13.26% – off the recent highs from last week at 13.81% but up from 4.27% in December 2010.

S&P report says US interest rates (not short term) can only go up from here

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:18 AM PDT

…they add that the Fed is likely not to raise the Fed Funds target however.

Feds Bullard says financial market effects on Feds QE2 were same as if Fed reduced rates

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:15 AM PDT

There are some who feel that the QE2 added speculative money to the market which may have contributed to asset bubbles in some sectors including commodities. This may have been de-stabilizing. So although what Bullard says cannot really be disproved, it is likely not able to be proved either.

Bullard talks to this point by also adding that effects of asset purchases on real economy harder to assess beccause of shocks to economy in early 2011.

Greek austerity measures pass as expected

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:12 AM PDT

US Chicago PMI Rises and NAPM Milwaukee Stays According To Forecast

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:11 AM PDT

NAPM-Milwaukee: Survey: 59.0 Actual: 59.0 Prior:62.0

AUDUSD. Watching the technicals as momentum slows

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:44 AM PDT

The AUDUSD has been on a run to the upside over the last few days . The price is showing some signs of slowing today which may be indicative of at least a pause in the trend. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has turned sideways and the 200 bar MA on the same chart is flattening. This after a strong run which has seen limited corrective moves.

Keeping the bears at bay, however, is the price has tested the 200 bar MA in early NY session and bounced. The price bounced off that level and moved above the 100 bar MA, but has since dipped back down where it is currently testing the 200 bar again. IF, the price is to continue to move lower, the price has to move through the 200 bar MA, and the trendline (see chart below) at the 1.0707 level. Otherwise, the bulls would still be in control.

German Ministry of Finance have received agreement with German banks on a Greek aid program

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:23 AM PDT

German participation around 10 billion Euros. Details of German bank package will be decided in coming days.

He is confident an agreement of Finance Ministers will be reached on Sunday on aid to Greece.

USDCHF/EURCHF surge to new day/week highs

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:17 AM PDT

The pair is testing the next target at the 200 hour MA at hte 0.8380 level. A break through this level will next target 0.8412. This is the midpoint of the June trading range. . There may be less resistance at the 0.8401 area.

The passing of the austerity measures yesterday and likely passage today is leading to liquidation of the safety trade in the CHF it seems. The EURCHF has also moved sharply higher.

Report: Greek opposition will support 22 of 49 Greek Austerity measures

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:12 AM PDT

The ruling party has a majority so it does not imply that any of the measures might be rejected. What it does mean is that at least 22 will pass with out a hitch.

The vote is ungoing for the Greek Austerity program

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:10 AM PDT

The expectation is the vote will be in pieces…It will not be a single yes or no like yesterday.

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 9:30 AM ET

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:02 AM PDT

Please join us today (Thursday, June 30) at 9:30 AM ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/686506385 .

EURUSD tests yesterday’s ceiling at 1.4447 (and other levels) and bounces

Posted: 30 Jun 2011 05:50 AM PDT

YEsterday, there was a ceiling at the 1.4447 level. Today, the level also corresponds with the 38.2% of the last leg higher for the pair and also is near what is channel trendling support. Holding the level and bouncing off of it keeps the bullish bias in place for the EURUSD.

The Implementation vote from the Greece parliament (largely expected to pass) is due in the next half hour or so. The Initial Claims data in the USA continue to disappoint. This – along with Trichet “strongly vigiliance” rhetoric – should keep the EURUSD supported as the US is largely on hold while the ECB is focused on raising rates when they meet again next Thursday.

The next hurdle on the upside looks like the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. A move above it, should open the door for a test oof the high for the day.