| USDJPY falls to 77.00 level on weaker US data Posted: 29 Jul 2011 07:40 AM PDT 
The USDJPY moved sharply lower on the weaker US data today in addition to Washington budget issues. The price has found support against the 77.00 level with trendline just below this key level at 76.96. The low in March came in at the 76.41 area in fast market conditions. At the time, the market was reeling from the “idea” that Japan exporters would need to repatriate funds back to Japan (selling dollars, buying yen in the process). In March to stop the fall, global central banks came into the market and sold Yen (bought USDJPY). The hardship on the country from the devastation of the Tsunami and nuclear disaster warranted the concerted effort. I do not think that concerted effort will be found now. Today, the dynamics are different with the dollar weakness dominating. 
The price bottom at 77.00 is a logical level to pause. Traders will be eyeing the correction – marking the 38.2% of the move down at 77.255 as a level to get above that would take some of the sting of the decline away from the sellers today. Failure to move above this level keeps the pressure on the pair. Keep an eye on the level. |
| AUDUSD pushes against the 100 hour MA Posted: 29 Jul 2011 07:12 AM PDT 
The AUDUSD has moved higher in reaction to the weaker dollar but relatively, the move higher has been more contained. The price has pushed to the 100 hour MA at the 1.0969 level. A move above the level will likely lead to further buying on stops. The correction off the high, has so far found support against the 38.2% of the move up from the low at 1.0944. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.0938 level. Holding these levels will likely lead to another test of the NY highs. 
|
| University of Michigan Confidence Falls to 63.7 vs Prior 63.8 and Forecast of 64.0 Posted: 29 Jul 2011 06:55 AM PDT |
| Chicago PMI Drops to 58.8 Posted: 29 Jul 2011 06:46 AM PDT Chicago PMI: Survey: 60.0 Actual: 58.8 Prior: 61.1 July vs June 2011
New Orders: 56.2 vs 62.3
Production: 56.8 vs 61.7
Employment: 62.3 vs 61.1
Supply Deliveries: 53.4 vs 61.7
Finished Inventory: 54.1 vs 54.3
Commodity Prices: 68.5 vs 79.0 |
| EURUSD stepping up Posted: 29 Jul 2011 06:44 AM PDT 
The EURUSD has surged higher after testing 38.2% of the weeks range at 1.43455 (see chart above), correcting just below the 100 day MA at 1.4331 (see char below), then moving sharply higher from there. The price has peaked at the next Fibo level on the hourly chart (50% of the weeks range). Above the level is the 100 hour MA at the 1.4394 level. A move above that opens the door for a move to 1.44177. 
On the downside, the last leg higher in the EURUSD has the 38.2% come in at 1.4358 area. If the price can hold the level, the longs will remain in control and we should see higher levels. 
|
| USD/CHF New All-Time Low, Pushing Lower Posted: 29 Jul 2011 06:42 AM PDT 
USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Friday (7/29/2011) has established yet a new all-time low, this time breaking below the 0.7900 level for the first time. This breakdown occurs within the context of a remarkably strong and technically-behaving long-term, medium-term, and short-term downtrend. This bearish trend, which has essentially been in place since the June 2010 high, has made progressively lower all-time lows and has adhered to key support/resistance levels and technical targets. After having just broken down below the 0.8000 psychological level and reached a key 261.8% Fibonacci extension target in uncharted territory, the strong bearish bias for this pair continues. With upside resistance now tentatively residing around the just-broken 0.8000 level, Swiss franc strength could now be targeting further downside support around the 0.7500 price region. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD |
| The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Jul 2011 06:21 AM PDT |
| US Chicago PMI Forecast 60.0 Posted: 29 Jul 2011 06:20 AM PDT |
| The GDP for 2011 much weaker. What will Q3 bring? Posted: 29 Jul 2011 05:38 AM PDT U.S. GDP rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.3% in the second quarter. Economists expected a 1.8% increase. First-quarter growth was revised down sharply to a 0.4% gain from 1.9%. The 2nd quarter employment costs are the highest in 3 years. |
| Canada Data All Worsens Posted: 29 Jul 2011 05:33 AM PDT Gross Domestic Product (MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: -0.3% Prior: 0.0% Gross Domestic Product (YoY): Survey: 2.8% Actual: 2.2% Prior: 2.8% Materials Price Index: Survey: -2.0 Actual: -2.2% Prior: -5.2% Revised: -5.3% Industrial Product Price Index: Survey: -0.1% Actual: -0.3% Prior: -0.2% |
| US GDP Falls to 1.3% Posted: 29 Jul 2011 05:31 AM PDT GDP (Annualized): Survey: 1.8% Actual: 1.3% Prior: 1.9% Revision: 0.4% GDP Price Index: Survey: 2.0% Actual: 2.3% Prior: 2.0% Revision: 2.5% Core PCE QoQ: Survey: 2.3% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 1.6% Revision: % |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.29.2011 Posted: 29 Jul 2011 05:29 AM PDT  Good Morning:
I am back to writing Bobby’s Corner again. I have been delayed by some registration and traveling obligations-but I am glad to be back at the writers table. The biggest news is the US debt ceiling stalemate in Washington-which is going down to the wire, as August 2 (next Tuesday) is the deadline before a threatened US default.
There seems to be alot of finger pointing by both the Democrates and the Republicans-and I think that the majority of US residents are tired of the political fooling around that has gone on-and want our elected officials to get their jobs done, and settle this debt ceiling issue now. Today we have early results of Q2 GDP(Annualized)-which is expected to show a lackluster 1.6% compared to Q1 at 1.9%. The soft data that is expected is due mostly to the fact that the US consumer has cut back on spending, as slow job and income growth has stifled the US economy. In other European news, Moody’s today warned that they will be putting Spain rating under review. European markets were fairly calm-as Chinese officials stated that they may be interested in purchasing Greek bonds. I wish you all a GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| The EURUSD looks to get back below yesterday’s low Posted: 29 Jul 2011 05:16 AM PDT 
The EURUSD is down testing yesterday’s low at the 1.42538 level. A move below this level should keep the pressure on the EURUSD . Holding support however, could open the upside up for some short covering buying. The EURUSD has been pressured today – down from yesterdays close at the 1.4333 level. The high today peaked against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the weeks high. The holding of that key retracement opened the door for the selling from a technical perspective. On the topside, the 1.4272 area is currently the trendline for the daily channel (see chart below). Above that a move above the 38.2% retracementat the 1.42796 and the 100 bar MA at the 1.4285 level will likely turn the intraday bias back higher. 
|
| NZDUSD sits on the 200 hour MA support at 0.8635 Posted: 29 Jul 2011 04:55 AM PDT 
The NZDUSD is sitting on support on the 200 hour MA at the 0.8635 level. The risk currencies are under pressure today and the move down in the NZDUSD has taken the price below the 100 hour MA (the trigger) to the next key support level. If the 200 hour MA can be broken, this should solicit additional selling with the 38.2% retracement at the 0.8617 and the 50% retracement at the 0.85715 being another target. Those levels were also where lows from Monday and July 22nd are found. This should slow the decline. If a global slowdown feeling occurs as a result of increased fiscal austerity, and/or lower consumer/business confidence, a move out of risk could pressure the NZDUSD. On the topside, if the price can stay below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see below), the bias will remain bearish intraday. That level currently comes in at the 0.8658 level. 
|
| AUDUSD feels some global heat Posted: 29 Jul 2011 04:45 AM PDT 
The risk currencies are coming under pressure today. Problems in Washington, problems in Spain (warning by Moody’s) and talk of slower growth in EU has buyers of the high flying pairs feeling some corrective pressure. The hope is that growth in the 2H is going to be above the trend in US. However, with uncertainy in Washington, I wonder how businesses/consumers will be more upbeat. From a technical perspective the pair is sitting on a support line a 1.0921. A move below this level opens the door for further technical selling to 1.0880 which is the 38.2% of the move up from the July 18th low to the recent high. Below that the 200 hour MA is at 1.0865 would be the next target for the pair. On the topside, stay below the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.0965. Stay below this MA and the bias remains bearish – at least for the day. |
