Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD breaks below the 1.4273-77 support.
Forex Wrap up webinar TODAY at 12:30pm Greg Michalowski & Shawn Powell
EURO and USD can battle it out for the ugliest currency
USDCHF becomes safe haven again
US Wholesale Inventories Improve
GBPUSD moves above topside resistance
Shocking!. Dollar sells off.
Draghi Says Italian Banks Will Pass Stress Tests
Nonfarm Payrolls Drop
Very weak data…USDJPY falls. EURUSD tests 100 day MA at 1.4269
EURUSD levels to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls Due 8:30AM
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing-US Employment Preview
Canadian net change in employment was 28.4K vs. 15.0K.
EU document says most EU governments are ready to support banks accordingly after stress-tests.

EURUSD breaks below the 1.4273-77 support.

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 07:34 AM PDT

…and falls sharply. The price is also back below the 100 day MA a tthe 1.4269 level. THe next target support will come in at the 1.4246 which is the 61.8% of the move up from May. A move back abov eth 1.4269 level would need to see momentum buying above the 1.4277 level to satisfy dip buyers.

Forex Wrap up webinar TODAY at 12:30pm Greg Michalowski & Shawn Powell

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 07:29 AM PDT

Forex Wrap up webinar takes place TODAY at 12:30pm. Join Greg Michalowski, Chief Currency Analyst and Shawn Powell, National Trainer for a comprehensive look at the upcoming week of trading. We will be talking about how to pick what pairs to trade and when to trade them- Register now

EURO and USD can battle it out for the ugliest currency

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 07:24 AM PDT

How bad has this week been? The situation in the Eurozone was bad. Portugal downgrade, surge in periphery country yields, risk of bank stress test failures to come. In the US, a shocking employment report, and the budget process likely to get even more heated as the Dems have no power. So what to do?

The 1.4331 level is the 50% retracement of the move up from the May low to the June high. The price surged above this level in the first few hours of trading but is now finding sellers against the level in the last hourly bar.

The price has moved back in the channel on the hourly chart and is moving down to intraday support against the 50 % midpoint of the move higher. That level comes in at the 1.4277 level. The corrective high before the data peaked at the 1.4274. The market will be looking for support against these levels.

USDCHF becomes safe haven again

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 07:04 AM PDT

The USDCHF is moving sharply lower as the CHF is the safe haven currency once again. There are problems in the US. There are problems in the the EU. Japan has their own issues. Switzerland has been able to weather the storm so far despite the stronger currency.

From a technical perspective the price is back within the channel that held the price for most of 2011. The trendline comes in at the 0.8445 area.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price is near a low floor at the 0.8381 level. The 61.8% comes in at the 0.8369. The low for the week came in at the 0.8363 level These are the next targets to get through.

The 5 minute chart shows a minor bounce off the low. The price peak has reached 0.8398. There is a clear ceiling at this level now. The market will be eyeing this level as a possible entry level. If the price moves above the are likely to reevaluate and look for the 0.843231 level.

US Wholesale Inventories Improve

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 07:01 AM PDT

Wholesale inventories rise to 1.8% vs a projected 0.7% survey. The revision was also better at 1.1% from a prior figure of 0.8%

GBPUSD moves above topside resistance

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 06:47 AM PDT

The GBPUSD is moving above the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 28th low to the high reached at April. The price is back above the 200 day MA at the 1.6044. The price is testing the channel trendline at the 1.6053. Staying above these levels keep the bias to the upside for the pair. The next target above comes in at the 1.6089 which is the high from Wednesday. The high for Tuesday was 1.6128. The high for the week was 1.6139.

Stay above 1.6143 will be eyed.

Shocking!. Dollar sells off.

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 05:47 AM PDT

We started the day with 1.797 million jobs created since the start of the job growth. It now is showing 1.771 million with the revisions included (which were down). Two month job growth 21.5 thousand per month. Unemployment 9.2%. Underemployed goes up to 16.2%. It is a long way back for the US economy.

Draghi Says Italian Banks Will Pass Stress Tests

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 05:36 AM PDT

Nonfarm Payrolls Drop

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 05:31 AM PDT

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey: 105K Actual: 18K Prior: 54K Revision: 25K

Change in Private Payrolls: Survey: 132K Actual: 57K Prior: 83K Revised: 73K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Survey: 5K Actual: 6K Prior: -5K Revised: -2K

Unemployment Rate: Survey: 9.1% Actual: 9.2% Prior: 9.1%

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp: Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.0% Prior: 0.3%

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp: Survey: 1.9% Actual: 1.9% Prior: 1.8%

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: Survey: 34.4 Actual: 34.3 Prior: 34.4

Very weak data…USDJPY falls. EURUSD tests 100 day MA at 1.4269

Posted: 08 Jul 2011 05:30 AM PDT

NFP 18k, Private 57K. Revisions lower too
UNemployment Rate 9.2%
This puts into question a double dip
The EURUSD fell initially on the back of the weak US is weaker EURO. There is a rebound going on now. The 1.4269 level will be watched above.
The USDJPY has fallen sharply. Falling to the low from yesterday in one fell swoop and now trading even lower.
The USDCHF moves to the 200 hour MA at the 0.8408 level. The 100 hour MA is at 0.8437. Look for sellers against theis level.