Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

ECBs Bini Smaghi says Greek restructuring would be a disaster

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:15 AM PDT

He adds that governments should bury their private sector involvement plans.  Any form of restructuring would be more expensive than aid.  He says that EFSD should be able to purchase bonds

Market rumor of a sub 50 China PMI tonight

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:14 AM PDT

Think tank report talks of EFSF increase to buy Greece bonds

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:10 AM PDT

This is in contrast to the earlier report (just minutes ago) suggesting that the results will be more political versus financial at this point. 

The report is purely a thought but it has helped the EURUSD move back toward that 1.4200 level in the pair.

US Exisiting Home Sales Fall

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:01 AM PDT

Existing Home Sales: Survey: 4.90M    Actual: 4.77M  Prior: 4.81M  

Existing Home Sales (MoM):  Survey: 1.9%   Actual: -0.8%   Prior: -3.8%  

June  vs May 2011
 
Northeast:  .730 vs .770
 Midwest: 1.040 vs 1.030
 South: 1.860 vs 1.850 
 West:  1.140 vs 1.160

Report out that EU has a political will for a solution. The financial details are not

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:55 AM PDT

There is report out of the EU that there is a political will, but details of any solution remain to be worked out.  This has sent the EURUSD down at the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 61.8% of the days trading range at teh 1.4173. Staying below the 1.4200 level remains the topside resistance.

Exisiting home sales due out at 10 AM with expectaions of 4.9m units. The months supply of homes on the market came in at 9.3 months last month.  This was up from the low of 7.5 months in January 2011 and the highest level this year.

GBPUSD looks toward the 100 hour MA at 1.6110

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:53 AM PDT

The GBPUSD moved closer to the 100 hour MA at the 1.6110 level. The price low has reached the 1.6116. Earlier today the price moved higher on the back of less dovish MPC meeting minutes.  THe topside has trendline resistance at the 1.6147 level.     On a break of the 100 hour MA, the trendline support off the low from July 18th comes in at the 1.6076 level.

EURUSD pushes to new NY lows.

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:38 AM PDT

The 1.4184 is the the trendline that held yesterday and pushed above today.  This is a target that is being tested. The other level to eye below is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.4175.  A move below this level next targets thte 1.4154 level.

Traders who are short from above, will likely want to see the price stay below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (close level) at the 1.4192 level. Above that the 38.2% of the move up today comes in at 1.4198.  In general, staying below the 1.4200 level would be ok with intra day shorts.

FXStreet Webinar at 11:00 AM ET. Trading Forex in a minefield of fundamental influences

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:31 AM PDT

The current trading environment is full of fundamental influences that make trading in the minefield of news downright dangerous. How do you as a retail trader, maneuver through the risk and uncertainty inherent in the current forex market from global events. Greg Michalowski, Chief Currency analyst at FXDD and author of Attacking Currency Trends (www.attackingcurrencytrends.com Wiley March 2011) will outline how he approaches the current market environment filled with risk, risk, risk.

TO REGISTER GO TO: http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=ff14281e-c498-4285-aa59-17e2fd0492a9

EURUSD testing intraday levels in early NY trade

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:55 AM PDT

The EURUSD is feeling out the NY traders bias and so far there are no winners. The support levels on the intraday chart are holding and so is resistance.   Trendline above is at the 1.4221 level. The trendline below comes in at the 1.4198 where the 38.2% is also located. The first look at the level has found quick profit taking buyers. 

Comments from EU officials could cause a reaction one way or the other today (as could US government comments). So be aware. Be prepared.

Fitch says disorderly Greek default to lead to severe volatility

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:50 AM PDT

They add a Greek resolution is neccesary but does not prevent a threat

Canada Wholesale Sales Improve

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:38 AM PDT

Wholesale Sales(MoM%):   Survey: 0.1%   Actual: 1.9%   Prior: -0.1%

May 2011 vs April 2011
Canada:   $47,617 vs $46,736
Inventory/Sales:  1.17 vs 1.20
Seales ex autos: $39,952 vs $38,957
Newfoundland and Labrador:  $319 vs $337 
Nova Scotia:  $619 vs $630
New Brunswick:  $503 vs $495
Quebec: $9,167 vs $9,004
Ontario: $24,006 vs $23,775
Manitoba: $1,177 vs $1,169
Saskatchewan: $1,702 vs $1,586
Alberta:  $5,721 vs $5,492
British Columbia:  $4,286 vs $4,131

NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 20 2011

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:29 AM PDT

German spokesman says private sector involvement is an important factor

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 04:59 AM PDT

France’s Sarkozy and Germany’s Merkel are to meet before the EU meeting tomorrow that is designed to outline  a plan for Greece.

Canada Wholesale Saleles Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 04:52 AM PDT

EU’s Barroso

Posted: 20 Jul 2011 03:50 AM PDT

  • Situation is “very serious” and requires a response.
  • Minimum that must be done on Thursday is provide assurances on sustainability on Greek public finances.
  • Negative consequences will be felt in all corners of Europe and beyond if solution is not found.
  • Now is the time for member states to make good on their commitments.
  • With goodwill on all sides we can have a solution.

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