Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD just not sure. Stays in limbo
• Chicago Fed Number Comes Out Weaker
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 25th is available for viewing
• US Chicago Fed National Activity Data Due at 8:30AM
• ECB’s Costa
• UK BBA mortgage approvals (June) 31.7K; slightly better than the 31.3K forecast.
• Italian consumer confidence indicator (July) 103.7 vs 104.5 prior.
• According to Irish finance minister, the government will stick to its proposed budget target.
• Moody’s downgrades Greece to Ca from Caa1
• The Week Ahead from FXDD
• 7-25 Calender
• EURUSD keeps a bullish bias in early trading
• Japan Finance Minister Noda says will take resolute action in currency market

EURUSD just not sure. Stays in limbo Posted: 25 Jul 2011 05:56 AM PDT The early trading in NY show the EURUSD apprehension to tip a hand one way or the other. The 5 minute chart shows this apprehension. THe 100 and 200 bar MA are a few pips from each other (1.4369 and 1.4374 currently). There is a floor it seems around the 1.4359 level. ON the topside 1.4390, 1.4403 and 1.4415 are levels to watch. The midpoint of the two day range (Friday and Monday) comes in at the 1.43803 level. When the markets are up and down like they are today, it is because the market does not know. Traders need to realize this and play ranges patiently. If buying at support does not work, get out. If selling against resistance does not work, get out. If selling on a break of support does not work, get out. If buying on a break of resistance does not work, get out. Risk a little. Be patient for clues. For example, look for a break of support or resistance to have a pull back to the break level. This would be a clue that there is more interest by the market in the break. Look for an extension and continuation of the break. If good trade location is found, target the hurdles along the way -even if those levels are 8-12 pips away. The steps may seem insignificant, but in the non-trending range the market is in, that is what traders rely on. Taking steps – even if they are baby steps – give confidence to either the bulls or the bears. Then the market makes a break and the range gets extended. Looking at the hourly chart for the EURUSD, the trend to the upside over the last week, has broken outside the range on the back of the sideways market (i.e., it is not really a break and momentum move to the downside). The price has been able to hold support against the 38.2% of the move up from Tuesday. That level comes in at the 1.43225 level.

Chicago Fed Number Comes Out Weaker Posted: 25 Jul 2011 05:30 AM PDT Chicago Fed Natl Activity:  Survey: -0.40   Actual: -0.46  Prior: -0.37  Revised: -0.55

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 25th is available for viewing Posted: 25 Jul 2011 04:59 AM PDT

US Chicago Fed National Activity Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 25 Jul 2011 04:02 AM PDT

ECB’s Costa Posted: 25 Jul 2011 01:49 AM PDT Portuguese economy needs significant adjustment. Target payment system is operating normally, interruption has been resolved. Sovereign risk deterioration in Portugal led to financial system risk deterioration. EU members showed great difficulty in producing robust response to crisis. ECB liquidity is emergency measure, not sustainable for long period. Portugal financing system has to guarantee regular and adequate financing. Economic government needs to be created for Eurozone.

UK BBA mortgage approvals (June) 31.7K; slightly better than the 31.3K forecast. Posted: 25 Jul 2011 01:33 AM PDT

Italian consumer confidence indicator (July) 103.7 vs 104.5 prior. Posted: 25 Jul 2011 01:05 AM PDT

According to Irish finance minister, the government will stick to its proposed budget target. Posted: 25 Jul 2011 12:34 AM PDT

Moody’s downgrades Greece to Ca from Caa1 Posted: 24 Jul 2011 10:06 PM PDT Moody’s comments that no other Eurozone member’s fiscal problems are nearly as big as Greece’s.

The Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 24 Jul 2011 09:22 PM PDT

7-25 Calender Posted: 24 Jul 2011 08:31 PM PDT

EURUSD keeps a bullish bias in early trading Posted: 24 Jul 2011 04:11 PM PDT The 1.43106 level is the 100 day MA and will be eyed this week.  Staying above, keeps the bulls fully in charge. A move below and the bias shifts. Looking at the intraday chart below, the move up from Thursdays low (1.41385), held the 38.2% retracement on Friday at the 1.43227 level.  The move off that retracement level is another bullish confirmation for those traders long. In the early trading today, the price has move higher initially but has since come back down.  The move down, tested the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart below) and found some early buyers.  If the price can stay above this level, look for a rotation back higher.  A move below and corrective momentum down should materialize with a move to the low from Friday at 1.4322 and the 100 day MA at 1.4310 the next targets.  This will test the bulls.

Japan Finance Minister Noda says will take resolute action in currency market Posted: 24 Jul 2011 03:34 PM PDT The comments were made over the weekend during a speak in Hiroshima. The USDJPY has been falling and closed the NY week near the lows. In today’s trade, the price has openend and moved lower toward the bottom of the hourly channel.  The price has rotated back higher however, but will still need to climb above the 78.45 level (lows from July 12 and July 14th) in order give the bulls something to feel a little confident.  A move above the top channel trendline and the 38.2% retracement near the 78.575 level will be needed to give bulls even more confidence.

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