Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Basics at 4:00PM TODAY with FX Trainer Shawn Powell
EUR/USD Breaks Down Triangle to Approach Key 1.4000 Support
Euro Finance Chiefs sign treaty to create ESM in July 2013
EURUSD keeps the bears in charge
USDJPY dips below channel trendline
ECB Notwotny says Greece needs extreme discipline in applying plan
Greek Finance Minister says ready to participate in private sector talks
Spanish Finance Minister says rating downgrades are unjustifiable
EURUSD scrapes along 5 minute channel support
Canada Housing Starts better than expectations
NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 11th
Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble says will agree on a new plan for Greece
Daily Telegraph article today is not too endearing for the EU

Forex Basics at 4:00PM TODAY with FX Trainer Shawn Powell

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 06:48 AM PDT

Forex Basics at 4:00PM TODAY with FX Trainer Shawn Powell and Jason Galano break down how a trader should look at the charts for the first time and what it takes to starting making more correct decisions on your own. Learn from professionals and get relevant perspectives today at 4:00PM. Its free to attend and you are sure to learn at least two or three new points. Register for the class now – https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/149457856

EUR/USD Breaks Down Triangle to Approach Key 1.4000 Support

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 06:46 AM PDT

EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Monday (7/11/2011) has continued its significant bearishness from last week by breaking down decisively below a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that has been in place since the May 1.4940 high. This swift and substantial breakdown has now approached, by just about 25 pips as of this writing, a key confluence of support around the very important 1.4000 price region. Price, therefore, is currently at a critical juncture. This support confluence includes the fact that 1.4000 has previously served as a significant support/resistance pivot level, is also a major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (of the last major bullish trend run from the February low to the May high), and is additionally a key psychological round number. Will the 1.4000 price region serve as true support, where a bounce occurs at around that important level? Or will further bearish momentum prompt a support breakdown? In the case of the latter scenario, a key downside support target resides around the 1.3750 price region, which is currently still within the longstanding bullish trend.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

Euro Finance Chiefs sign treaty to create ESM in July 2013

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 06:20 AM PDT

700 billion of Euros in European Stability Mechanism which will provide loans to debt hit countries as of mid 2013. The EU countries must agree to the ESM and the funding

EURUSD keeps the bears in charge

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 06:11 AM PDT

Correcttions within a trend that hold the 38.2% of most recent legs, tend to keep the trend traders in charge. The EURUSD just corrected just short of the 38.2% of the last leg down, and reversed course when the pair failed to extend above the level (at 1.4066). This does not necessarily mean that the pair will make new lows, it just keeps the burden on the buyers to push the market higher – through resistance.

USDJPY dips below channel trendline

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 06:06 AM PDT

The USDJPY dipped below the channel trendline that has kept the pair contained over the last month of trading. The level comes in at the 80.41 level. The low reached 80.31. The bias shifts to the downside on the break for the pair. A move back in the channel negates some of the bearishness. Overall, the USDJPY has been mired in a narrow trading range and searches for a trend. Activity remains focused on other currencies mainly.

ECB Notwotny says Greece needs extreme discipline in applying plan

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 06:02 AM PDT

Must keep a clear head in the current situation.

Greek Finance Minister says ready to participate in private sector talks

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 05:40 AM PDT

Dutch Finance minister De Jager says any rating company view is short term. He adds no EU country like Greece, but Italy needs to get budget under control.

Spanish Finance Minister says rating downgrades are unjustifiable

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 05:32 AM PDT

The EURUSD has moved below the 5 minute trendline support line and the decline accelerated. The burden is on the bulls to push the price back into the channel. IF they cannot (and that is step one), the price bias remains to the downside (the level comes in at the 1.4045 level currently).

EURUSD scrapes along 5 minute channel support

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 05:25 AM PDT

The EURUSD is scraping along the bottom of a 5 minute channel support. The current level comes in at the the 1.4048 area. A move below should lead to further downside momentum for the pair. Watch this support.

The low from May 25th comes in at 1.4013. Below that the low from May come in at 1.3969

Canada Housing Starts better than expectations

Posted: 11 Jul 2011 05:14 AM PDT

Comes in 197.4 vs 185K Last month Housing starts came in at 183.6.

The USDCAD has remains supported as the global growth slowdown has oil prices under pressure. The price is testing the 38.2% of the move down from the June 27th high to the low reached on July 8th. That level comes in at the 0.9693 level. A move above would look to target the 0.9734 level (50% of the same move down – see chart below).