Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Fitch say fiscal measures by Italy should stabilize Italy credit at Aa-
- Need for more monetary support may be needed: Bernanke
- GBPUSD looks toward another test of trendline resistance
- Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET
- Feds Rosengren says monetary accomodation is still needed. Bernanke to come.
- EURUSD holds 50% Fibo resistance at 1.4105. Tests trendline now
- US Import Price Index comes in slightly higher than expected
- EU Spokesperson Stefan Gerlach says Ireland may not need a second bailout
- The NY Opening Forex Commentary for July 13th 2011
- Report: UK Banks have passed stress tests
- Chinese official. One more rate hike possible…
- Reports in the market that Fitch will catch up and downgrade Greece today
- US Mortgage Applications fell 5.1% in the current week
- US Import Price Index Data Due at 8:30AM
- USD/CHF finding support @ .82803
| Fitch say fiscal measures by Italy should stabilize Italy credit at Aa- Posted: 13 Jul 2011 07:06 AM PDT |
| Need for more monetary support may be needed: Bernanke Posted: 13 Jul 2011 07:00 AM PDT
The comments, although noting the risks to the downside, he is not ready to give up just yet given in. |
| GBPUSD looks toward another test of trendline resistance Posted: 13 Jul 2011 06:47 AM PDT
The GBPUSD held trendline resistance at the 1.5987 level earlier today (high reached 1.5987). The trendline is from the move down from the June high to the low reached just yesterday. A move above this level should solicit additional buying interest in the pair with the 200 day MA at the 1.6054 level being the next target for the pair on the daily chart. This level also corresponds with the slower channel target as defined by the most recent lows (see chart above). Of course the 38.2% of the move down comes in at 1.6071 is also an upside target, if the resistance levels can be breached. If the resistance holds at the 1.5987 level, the downside has the 100 hour MA at the 1.5946 level and the trendline support at the 1.5928 level currently (see hourly chart below).
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| Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 13 Jul 2011 06:15 AM PDT
Please join us today (Wednesday, July 13) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/166178985 |
| Feds Rosengren says monetary accomodation is still needed. Bernanke to come. Posted: 13 Jul 2011 06:12 AM PDT
The comments are on the dovish sign. At 10 AM ET, the Fed Bernanke will be speaking on Capital Hill. It is likely the Fed Chairman will speak to the shocks (i.e. oil, and Japan) that have caused a slower than expected growth in recent times, but that growth should expand in the 2nd half although risks to the downside given problems in EU. The chairman is likely to talk to the current debt and deficit talks, imploring congress that a failure to reach an agreement would be devastating to the US economy. The comments are likely not to be favorable. With Unemployment at 9.2% putting lipstick on the pig would not likely be worth the fight even if the Chairman were inclined to think the slowing is temporary. |
| EURUSD holds 50% Fibo resistance at 1.4105. Tests trendline now Posted: 13 Jul 2011 05:56 AM PDT
The EURUSD moved higher today continuing the corrective move started yesterday. The price has peaked at the 1.4105 level (high reached 1.4106) which corresponds with the 50% retracement of the move down from the July 7th high. The move back lower is now testing channel support of the move higher at 1.4041. This level should find some profit taking on the first test at least. A break below will open the door for a move toward the 1.4000 level where another channel (slower channel) can be found (see chart above). Looking at the daily chart, the price fell below the 200 day MA yesterday but rebounded sharply. This was the first break of the key moving average since early January 2011. The failure helped the tone once the price rebounded above the key level. The low for the month of June was breached on the move up today at the 1.4073 level. But like the failed move below the 200 day MA yesterday, the failure above the 1.4073 level could be significant clue today (i.e., provide a level to sell against on rallies today). The low from May comes in at the 1.3969. This level will also be a level of importance on a move back lower.
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| US Import Price Index comes in slightly higher than expected Posted: 13 Jul 2011 05:33 AM PDT Import Price Index: Survey: -0.6% Actual: -0.5% Prior: 0.2% Revised: 0.1% June vs. May 2011 The decline is the first decline since June 2010. A weaker dollar increases the cost of imports and this is the negative of pursuing this type of policy. The benefit is a weaker dollar increases exports. The US has seen an increase in exports (ex petroleum at least). Also, although the cost of a bottle of wine from France may have increased, the cost to the consumer may not have equalled the full 13.6% gain over the last year. The reason is that the re-seller is not likely able to pass on the full cost to the consumer. Profit margins are squeezed, which may be reflected in less hiring. So a weak dollar has it’s good in the form of higher exports/competitiveness and it also has it’s bad via higher import costs to the import hungry US consumer. |
| EU Spokesperson Stefan Gerlach says Ireland may not need a second bailout Posted: 13 Jul 2011 05:18 AM PDT Moody’s downgraded Ireland yesterday with the expectation that they would likely need a second bailout as a result of higher interest rates. There is time and conditions can improve but yields are still elevated in Ireland which would make rolling over debt in 2013-2014 unlikely at the moment. |
| The NY Opening Forex Commentary for July 13th 2011 Posted: 13 Jul 2011 05:10 AM PDT |
| Report: UK Banks have passed stress tests Posted: 13 Jul 2011 04:57 AM PDT The GBPUSD is getting a boost on the report. |
| Chinese official. One more rate hike possible… Posted: 13 Jul 2011 04:46 AM PDT …if the CPI remains high. |
| Reports in the market that Fitch will catch up and downgrade Greece today Posted: 13 Jul 2011 04:39 AM PDT There is a report in the market from a publication that Fitch is likely to downgrade Greece from their current rating of B+ . The expectation is for the rating to be move to B- or CCC. This would be in line with the Moody’s and S&P rating which have their ratings at Caa1 and CCC respectively. There has been limited reaction to the news as it is a “catch up” change. |
| US Mortgage Applications fell 5.1% in the current week Posted: 13 Jul 2011 04:26 AM PDT The Purchase index and the Refinancing index both fell by -2.6% and -6.2% respectively. The average rate for the 30 year mortgages fell to 4.55% from 4.69%. The 15 year average rate fell also to 3.68% from 3.79%. |
| US Import Price Index Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 13 Jul 2011 04:14 AM PDT
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| USD/CHF finding support @ .82803 Posted: 13 Jul 2011 02:34 AM PDT There has been consolidation in the pair between .82803 and .83294; support has been tested 3 times already. With no more Swiss data the rest of the week, it will most likely be a USD move that causes a break out to either side. An hourly close above or below this consolidation area should give us a clue as to the next short-term direction of the pair.
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