Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• EURUSD falls more…but
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Stays Unchanged
• EURUSD tests midpoint of recent rally and holds
• USDCHF tests 200 hour MA again at 0.8393
• Gold surges and test 61.8% retracement at 1527.27
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET
• EURUSD shows little in the way of a bounce. Corrective resistance levels eyed for clues.
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Due at 10AM
• Canada Building Permits Rise Big
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• German Finance Minister Schaeuble says cannot understand rating downgrade on Portugal
• US Challenger Job Cuts Higher
• Swiss official says CHF is overvalued
• PBOC raises benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 3.5%.
• BNP Paribas chairman says Eurozone is well defended.

EURUSD falls more…but Posted: 06 Jul 2011 07:26 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved to new lows as selling accelerated to the downside. The price correction held the 1.4339 level (50% of the move up from June 27th) and failure to get above, kept the bears in charge.  The price remains below the channel that started yesterday and the price could not re-enter the channel this morning on the correction (see chart above).  The bias remains to the downside as long as the price remains below the 1.4339 level.  Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart, there may be a reason for a corrective rebound, however. The price held the channel trendline at the lows and as long as the price holds this level, traders might feel inclined to take some profits. Understand, however, that the trend is down and that if the price moves below, get out.  Also the rallies are likely to have sellers if the price approaches the top trendline in this channel at the 1.4325 level.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Stays Unchanged Posted: 06 Jul 2011 07:01 AM PDT ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 53.7  Actual: 53.3  Prior: 54.6  July vs June 2011 Prices Paid: 53.3 vs 54.6 New Orders:  53.6 vs 56.8 Backlog of Orders:  48.5  vs 55.0   Supplier Deliveries:  52.0 vs 54.0 Inventory Change: 53.5 vs 55.0  Employment: 54.1 vs 54.0

EURUSD tests midpoint of recent rally and holds Posted: 06 Jul 2011 06:46 AM PDT As per the prior post, the EURUSD has currected higher but has run into resistance against the 1.4339 level which represents the 50% of the move up from the June 27th low. The price reached a high of 1.4338.  The pair remains underwraps as the events continue to unfold in Greece.

USDCHF tests 200 hour MA again at 0.8393 Posted: 06 Jul 2011 06:23 AM PDT The USDCHF has been trading between the Goal Posts as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 0.8443 level currently. The 200 hour MA is at the 0.8393 level.  There were 3 bars in the last 24 hours where the price dipped below the MA level. This is the third serious test of the level.  The CHF has once again become favored as a safe haven currency. Swiss officials were on the newswires today however, saying how the currency was overvalued and they were seeing signs of slowing of exports as a result. Nevertheless, the overall economy was still doing well.

Gold surges and test 61.8% retracement at 1527.27 Posted: 06 Jul 2011 06:04 AM PDT Gold has surged higher on the back of the flight to safety over the last few days.   The price is testing the 61.8% of the move down from the June 22nd high to the low on July 1st.  That level come s in at the 1527.27 level.  The price moved briefly above this level but is finding some profit taking at the level. Support now comes in at the 1521 area which is the 38.2% of the move up from today’s lows.

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 06 Jul 2011 05:53 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, July 6) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/881724001 .

EURUSD shows little in the way of a bounce. Corrective resistance levels eyed for clues. Posted: 06 Jul 2011 05:45 AM PDT The 5 minute chart shows a steady decline inthe EURUSD with tight range off of the trendlines at the 1.4323 level on the top and the 1.4295 currently on the downside. On the hourly chart below the 1.4339 level will also be eyed for corrective clues. That level represents the 50% retracement fo the move up from the June 27th lows.  Staying below these resistance levels keeps the bears fully in charge.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Due at 10AM Posted: 06 Jul 2011 05:36 AM PDT

Canada Building Permits Rise Big Posted: 06 Jul 2011 05:31 AM PDT Building Permits:  Survey: 5.0%  Actual: 20.9   Prior: -21.1%    Revised: -21.5 Non Residential Construction rose by a whooping 50.9% in the month as a result of construction intentions in commercial construction in Quebec, Alberta and Ontario. Residential Permits rose by 5.3%. Last month the permits fell by an equally surprising -21.1% and the month before by 16.8%. So large changes is not surprising. Quebec permits rose sharply by 45.8%. Montreal permits surged 125.8% to 1 billion. Despite the sharp increase, the USDCAD continues its move to the upside as corrective forces continue for the time being.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 06 Jul 2011 05:23 AM PDT

German Finance Minister Schaeuble says cannot understand rating downgrade on Portugal Posted: 06 Jul 2011 04:37 AM PDT Earlier the Portuguese officials were saying the ECB should think hard about using another method of evaluation other than the rating agencies. He adds they cannot ignore accelerating inflation in his country.  However, he says that inflation should recede in the second half of the year. The heat is being turned up in regard to the disdain for the US rating agencies from the EU community.

US Challenger Job Cuts Higher Posted: 06 Jul 2011 04:31 AM PDT

Swiss official says CHF is overvalued Posted: 06 Jul 2011 04:19 AM PDT Starting to see signs of cooling in some export sectors But economy is still in good shape despite high CHF They reject negative interest rates or measures to benefit export or tourist industry (like lower VAT on hotels)

PBOC raises benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 3.5%. Posted: 06 Jul 2011 03:33 AM PDT The rate increase was the 5th increase as China inflation accelerates. CPI inflation is expected to rise to 6% in June. They raised the 1 year yuan lending rate to 6.56% from 6.31% and the 1 year deposit rate to 3.5% fro 3.25%

BNP Paribas chairman says Eurozone is well defended. Posted: 06 Jul 2011 03:32 AM PDT Adds that Greek debt problem is very different from Portugal’s or Ireland’s.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610