Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Greek Talks Said to Focus on Default Lasting a Few Days
US Philadelphia Fed & Housing Index Data Due at 10AM
EURUSD moves above, tests and moves back above 100 day MA
NZDUSD breaks to new 30 year highs
US Jobless Claims Stay Above 400K For 15th Straight Week
EURUSD moves higher on healing hope
NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 21st 2011
EU says EFSF loans for bank recapitalization are being discussed
US Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
Eurozone finance minister says Trichet has accepted selective default.
EUR/USD testing 100 hour moving average
Swiss ZEW -58.9 vs. -24.3 prior reading.
Juncker says selective default for Greece is a possibility
UK Public sector net borrowing (June) 12.0 bln vs. 10.4 bln expected.
Eurozone current account (May) -5.2 bln vs. -5.1 bln prior reading.

Greek Talks Said to Focus on Default Lasting a Few Days

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 06:57 AM PDT

US Philadelphia Fed & Housing Index Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 06:29 AM PDT

EURUSD moves above, tests and moves back above 100 day MA

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 06:15 AM PDT

The surge higher on the expectation that the plan for Greece will calm fears not only in Greece (and others like Portugal and Ireland) but also to other nations that may get in trouble (through loans from the EFSF). The move higher has taken the price above the 100 day MA at the 1.4301 level. The first move took the price to a high of 1.4321, corrected to 1.4301 level and has moved to a new high at the 1.4328.

The US situation has not helped any with reports that the S&P could lower US rating as soon as mid August to AA from AAA.

NZDUSD breaks to new 30 year highs

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:57 AM PDT

The risk on trade is on and the NZDUSD has moved to new 30 year highs. The price has reached a trendline on the hourly chart going back to the end of June. The level comes in at the 0.8608 level. The surge to the upside took out closer resistance at the 0.8587 level and this will now be support for the pair. A move back below this level will be needed by any sellers looking sell a top. In a trend move like the NZDUSD tops can be sold but only against resistance levels like the 0.8608 level. However, if the price level is broken, the trader should close the position out. Trends are fast and directional and trading against them is dangerous. Watcht the 0.8587 level on a correction.

US Jobless Claims Stay Above 400K For 15th Straight Week

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Jobless Claims: Survey: 410K Actual: 418K Prior: 405K Revised: 408K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3705K Actual: 3698K Prior: 3727K Revised: 3748K

EUR/USD Trading higher on the news.

EURUSD moves higher on healing hope

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:29 AM PDT

The EURUSD has shot up on the expectation that the bailout package will save the day in the EU. There have been draft proposals on the newswires. The thought is the EFSF will be able to recapitalize the Greek banks through direct loans to government. THis would include countries other Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The EFSF will also be able to intervene in the debt markets on a precautionary basis. The loans will carry a rate of 3.5% from the EFSF. This rate is agreesive and would allow for countries like Greece to recapitalize.

The EURUSD is back above all trendline resistance (see hourly chart below). The support line comes in at the 1.4237 currently.

On the top side the price is looking to test the 100 day MA at 1.4301 (see daily chart below). The high has reached 1.4298 and has come off. The move higher has taken the price above the 38.2% of the move down from the May high to the low. That level comes in at the 1.42577 level. A move below this level will be needed to confirm the 100 day MA resistance above is the high (again – it was the high last week too). I would expect to see buyers on the dips.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 21st 2011

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:16 AM PDT

EU says EFSF loans for bank recapitalization are being discussed

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 04:41 AM PDT

US Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 04:12 AM PDT

Eurozone finance minister says Trichet has accepted selective default.

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 03:16 AM PDT

EUR/USD testing 100 hour moving average

Posted: 21 Jul 2011 03:04 AM PDT

After reaching a high of 1.42895 the EUR/USD has sold off in recent trade following worse than expected PMI data out of Germany and France in addition to poor Eurozone current account (-5.2B). There were also comments on Greece tonight; most notably from EU’s Juncker who stated that selective default is a possibility for the country.

Bullish trendline support had been developing for the pair over the last 2 days until it broke lower with the current candlestick. In the past hour the pair has sold off nearly 80 pips and is currently testing support from the 100 hour moving average which currently comes in at 1.41484. If selling continues we look to 1.41346, a support level from yesterday, as our next downside target.