Friday, April 30, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

University of Michigan comes in stronger at 72.2. vs expectation of 71.0

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 06:57 AM PDT

Number comes out a bit stronger at 72.2 from a prior figure of 69.5

Forex Morning Report - April 30

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 06:34 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report - Watch the video now.

8:30 US Economic Data comes in very close to expected

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 05:32 AM PDT

The following are the readings from this mornings numbers:

  • GDP QoQ (Annualized):               Survey: 3.3%   Actual: 3.2%   Prior: 5.6%  
  • Personal Consumption:              Survey: 3.3%   Actual: 3.6.%   Prior: 1.6%
  • GDP Price Index:                           Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 0.9%   Prior: 0.5%
  • Core PCE QoQ                              Survey: 0.5%   Actual: 0.6%   Prior: 1.8%
  • Employment Cost Index:             Survey: 0.5%   Actual: 0.6%   Prior: 0.5.%

Core PCE QoQ come in at a .6% new historical low.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.30.2010

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 05:04 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-7-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro rose as signs that Greece is close to an agreement on the budget cuts  that are necessary to approve the bailout package that the country needs to alleviate default.  The speculation that the rescue package may get announced early next week added an optimistic picture that is giving the Euro some support.  The JPY and USD lost some steam as the Euro moved higher.
On another note-Spain’s unemployment rate rove above 20%, adding woes to the Spanish governments attempt to cut the EU’s third largest budget deficit.

Asian equity markets were mixed, and European markets are higher at this time.  US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning.  Commodities are also higher this morning.

Oil:$85.45                                            Gold:$1175.40

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. GDP QoQ (ANNUALIZED) 1Q A 3.30% 5.60%
8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 1Q A 3.30% 1.60%
8:30A.M. GDP PRICE INDEX 1Q A 0.90% 0.50%
8:30A.M. CORE PCE QoQ  1Q A 0.50% 1.80%
8:30A.M. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX  1Q    0.50% 0.50%
9:45 A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER  APR. 6O.0 58.8O
9:55 A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE  APR. F       71.O   69.5O
10:00A.M. NAPM MILWAUKEE APR. 62.O

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Rebroadcast of FXDD Thursday’s Online Trading Class

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 05:00 AM PDT

april302010

Rebroadcast of FXDD Online Trading Class from Thursday - Click to watch the video here

GDP Expected to show 2.3% loss

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 04:55 AM PDT

The US GDP for 1Q is expected to show a loss of 2.3%. A lower figure than the prior revision.  Personal Consumption is expected to come in higher than the prior revision of 3.3%.  The Core PCE is expected to come at 0.5% with us historically never having a figure so low.  Later today we have the U of Michigan at 71.0 vs 69.5. This is the final revision for the April confidence.

EU Commission says that Greece talks could finish tommorow…

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 03:32 AM PDT

It was also noted that the entire Greek economy is going to have to be overhauled “root and branch”.

Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 03:03 AM PDT

As the EUR trades off session highs, Italy’s monthly unemployment rate came in slightly worse at 8.8%; the survey was 8.6% and prior reading was 8.5%.

Swiss KOF Leading Indicator

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 02:32 AM PDT

April’s leading indicatorrose to 1.99; in line with its forecast, and slightly better then the last reading of 1.93. The market had a very limited reaction to the release.

ECB’s Nowotny on the wires….

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 02:07 AM PDT

  • Greek aid is not about on-off emergency measures, but sustainable improvements.
  • Greece must adopt energetic measures to improve competitiveness and structural reforms.
  • Sustainable structural change in Greece is possible if they have the will.
  • It is very problematic that S&P changed their rating for Greece during negotiations.
  • ECB monetary policy will not be influenced at all by the Greek crisis.
  • Greek bond yields are absurdly high.

Eurozone Unemployment Unchanged

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 02:05 AM PDT

The Eurozone unemployment rate for March was unchanged at 10%.

Also released at the same time was CPI Flash estimate (y/y) which measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, which read 1.5%; slightly higher than the forecast of 1.4%.

The EUR is currently trading on session highs against all of the major currencies.

SNB’s Hildebrand acting on appreciation of Chf

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 01:05 AM PDT

SNB’s Hildebrand states the SNB will act decisively on excessive gains.

The Chf remains lower versus the Euro after comments as the pair is at session high of 1.4354.

BOJ Outlook Report

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 11:09 PM PDT

The following are comments released from the BOJ’s Outlook Report:

  • The BOJ will continue to help pull Japan out of deflation.
  • Will maintain very easy monetary conditions.
  • There are both upside and downside risks to price outlook.
  • Japan’s economic growth is likely to exceed the estimated potential growth rate this fiscal year.
  • Stimulus from low interest rates are strengthening.
  • BOJ repeats that the majority of board members regard a 1% rise in prices as stable.
  • Board thinks of a price rise of up to 2% as stable prices.
  • Recovery in consumption is likely to slow temporarily.
  • World economy is not returning to what it was before the crisis.
  • Depending on market confidence in public finance, swings in long term rates could hurt the economy.

Japan Housing Starts

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 10:08 PM PDT

The JPY showed a very limited reaction to Japanese housing starts which came in at -2.4%; better than the survey of -5.6% and prior showing of -9.3%.

This was the 16th straight month of negative housing starts in Japan, but much slower than the -9.3% annual decline last month as consumers remained cautious about spending due to bleak economic conditions. On a lighter note, orders received by 50 major construction companies in March jumped 42.3% from a year earlier.

Currently, the USD/JPY is trading just above the 94.00 handle.

Japanese Call Rate

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 10:02 PM PDT

Japan left their overnight call rate at 0.10%; the market was unchanged by the reading.
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Thursday, April 29, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex QUICK: USDCHF tests trendline 4 times this morning. Key level to watch today

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 06:20 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDCHF tests trendline 4 times this morning. Key level to watch today

Forex Morning Report - April 29

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 06:15 AM PDT

FXDD Forex Morning Report - Watch Now

Forex QUICK: EURUSD tests 1.3269 level. Will it hold again?

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 06:13 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD tests 1.3269 level. Will it hold again?

Forex QUICK GBPUSD moves above 38.2% Fibo Retracement. Does it have the momentum?

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 05:48 AM PDT

Forex QUICK GBPUSD moves above 38.2% Fibo Retracement. Does it have the momentum?

Initial Claims as expected at low end of range

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 05:36 AM PDT

Initial Claims come in as expected but toward bottom of the range

US Jobless Claims come in same as expected

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 05:31 AM PDT

Claims come in at 448K, this is as expected. (estimate 445K)

Continuing Claims come in at 4645 vs. 4618 which is a bit worse than expected

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.29.2010

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 05:18 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-6-150x200Good Morning:

With the EU & IMF nearing a final agreement in the bailout for Greece, the Euro bounced back from near 1 year low yesterday.  Data shows that confidence in the region has improved, and German unemployment fell at the fastest pace in more than 2 years.
Yesterday’s FOMC statement stated that the labor market is “beginning to improve”, and that they intend to keep interest rates low.

Asian equity markets fell, and European markets are higher.  US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning.

Oil:$84.11                                                           Gold:$1167.70

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT’L. ACTIVITY INDEX MARCH -0.20 -0.64
8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 24-Apr 445K 456K
8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS  17-Apr 4625K 4646K

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Eur/Usd approaching 100 hour M/A

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 03:25 AM PDT

The Eur/Usd bearishness seen in recent days may have ended as the pair is approaching its 100 hour M/A at 1.3282. This all on the heels of a statement by German SPD Leader Steineier who says the party is ready to allow Greek aid decision before May 9 election. The pair has taken a breather after a torrid run to the upside, possibly in light of  the position of its 100 hour M/A. This level should provide resistance, with further resistance at 1.3300, the 61.8% fibo.

The market is extremely news driven at the moment, with economic data taking a backseat to political commentary on the economic state of Europe. News pertaining to Greece, Spain and Portugal takes the forefront.

vincent_fx00064

Euro rises after statements out of Germany…

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 03:16 AM PDT

The EUR rose 20 points versus the USD to a new session high of 1.3277 after the German SPD leader said that they are ready to allow a Greek aid decision before May 9th.

The pair, which has tested the 50.0% retracement level 3 times in the last two days on the hourly chart is testing the level once again. A close above this line may be a bullish signal for the pair, which is now approaching the 100 hour moving average at 1.3282. If resistance is found at the 50.0% line, the downside target is the 38.2% line at 1.3229.

euro

Eurozone M3 Money Supply/Private Loans

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 01:05 AM PDT

The euro traded slightly higher after April M3 money supply came in as expected at -0.1% and private loans (y/y) was slightly worse at -0.2%; the survey was -0.1%.

German Unemployment Change

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 01:02 AM PDT

Germany’s April unemployment change, expected at -10K, came in much better at -68K. On the back of this release the GBP traded nearly 20 points higher against both the USD and JPY.

The German Labour Office Chief says that the decline in the April jobless total is due to the strong pickup in the spring.

Eur/Usd turns bearish, again

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 12:27 AM PDT

After gaining over 100 points from yesterday’s low of 1.3114, Eur/Usd appears to be on verge of another bearish move. The pair ran into hourly resistance at the 38.2% fibo (1.3229) of move down from 1.3415. 1.3480-90 should lend light support , with stronger support down at 1.3140-45.

vincent_fx00063

UK Nationwide HPI m/m

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 11:04 PM PDT

The market showed a limited reaction after UK HPI (m/m) came in at 1.0%; better than its forecast of 0.4% and prior reading of 0.7%

This was the second consecutive monthly rise for UK house prices, bringing the annual rate of increase into double digits for the first time in nearly three years.

Weber on the wires….

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 10:48 PM PDT

Bundesbank President Axel Weber made the following comments:

  • Past Greek behavior and current economic situation is a burden for the euro.
  • European institutions are in a position to ensure the stability of the euro.
  • Aid for Greece is the best way to prevent the crisis from spreading to other euro zone members.
  • Greece can turn the corner if it moves decisively and credibly with reforms.
  • It is counter productive to start discussions of central bank role in Greek rescue.
  • The Greek crisis shows that fiscal rules in the EU must be substantially strengthened.
  • Expulsion of Greece from the euro zone is legally not possible.

4-29 Economic Calendar

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 09:02 PM PDT

region_forex_00072
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex QUICK:EURUSD update after comments from Euro officials

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 06:46 AM PDT

Forex QUICK:EURUSD update after comments from Euro officials

Trichet and Straus Kahn on news wires.

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 06:25 AM PDT

Important we have talks going on…
Assumption is talks will end in days
Confident we will see a good conclusion but decision must be made quickly.
It all hinges on German Parliament….

I am not sure getting painted in the corner is such a good idea….

IMF Straus Kahn says negotiations with Greece difficult as deal will have pain.
Not fixing Greece will hurt EU. Confidence is important.

German Finance Minister Schaeuble says this is not just a Greek problem but a problem for Europe and Germany. This is about the stability of our currency

It all sounds like deju vu all over again except they added a couple years and doubled the billions needed. At the end of the day Greek yields need to come down so they can fund themselves. THey will need to make austerity measures that could result in taking away pensions, lowering public service jobs. They will need to somehow sell government property and busineses into the private sector and hope for global economic expansion including increased tourists to a county which may not like the new state of affairs.

Forex Morning Report - April 28

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 06:23 AM PDT

Germany’s Schaeuble says..

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 06:22 AM PDT

“Germany will help aid Greece as a last resort”.

…As the politics enter the picture again.

He adds “German Upper House may debate greek aid on May 7th”

Forex QUICK: EURUSD Tests 1.3260-68 resistance

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 06:01 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD Tests 1.3260-68 resistance

Greek aid package worth 100 to 120 billion over 3 years

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:55 AM PDT

As reported by Reuters from Straus Kahn from the IMF

Forex QUICK: USDCHF tests Fibonacci support at 1.0823

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:49 AM PDT

Rumored 100 billion relief package for Greece

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:41 AM PDT

Not confirmed, but may have contributed to the gains.

Forex QUICK: GBPUSD tests upside resistance at 1.5216 and holds

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:38 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: GBPUSD tests upside resistance at 1.5216 and holds

Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s webinar - watch now

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:25 AM PDT

The Rebroadcast of FXDD’s Tuesday webinar is now ready. >>Watch the rebroadcast here

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.28.2010

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:09 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

Europe’s continuing debt crisis is worsening as Greece was downgraded to junk status, and the cost of borrowing rose for the other PIGS countries (Italy,Portugal,Spain, and Ireland).  In the meantime, German Chancellor Terkel delays approval of the Greek rescue package.
The Euro traded to a near one year low against the USD as speculation mounts that the EU/IMF bailout for Greece will be insufficient, and that the sovereign debt issues will spread to neighboring EU countries. 

World equity markets dropped after the Dow lost over 200 pts on Tuesday.  US Futures are higher at this time.  Commodities also fell, as concerns that demand from Europe will drop amid their debt crisis.

Speculation that the grilling that Goldman Sachs executives took from the US Senate yesterday may be the beginning of US regulators uncovering and investigating “questionable” practices on Wall Street. 
There is also speculation that the US Senate and other US politicians are using these crisises to their own advantage-as they seek votes in the mid term elections.

Oil:$82.29                                                Gold:$1164.90

2:15 PM- FOMC interest rate decision, and statement.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Forex QUICK: EURUSD tests top again

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 04:55 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD tests top again

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing.

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 04:34 AM PDT

The Morning Report focuses on the EURUSD and major currency pairs.

EU Commission Comments…..

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 03:27 AM PDT

The EU Commission has issued the following statements:

  • Making solid progress with ECB, IMF, and Greece on the Greek aid program; expects talks to be completed in the coming days.
  • Watching the behavior of the financial markets and players.
  • The member states are using all possibilities to speed up measures for funds disbursement.
  • We will be ready to meet Greek needs.
  • Portugal has an ambitious fiscal program; may need additional measures. 
  • Greek debt restructuring is not an option because of political reasons.
  • Does not think that ECB has expressed opinion on intervening in bond markets.

Cable trading around 50.0% daily retracement

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 02:53 AM PDT

After trading over 100 points lower so far today, the GBP/USD pair is now trading around the 50% daily retracement level which comes in at 1.5159 with a session low of 1.5149. The pair has not traded this low since April 8th. The next daily target to the topside is 1.5244 (38.2%) and 1.5074 (61.8%) to the downside.

4-28-cable-daily

The selling off of the pair today shows that the GBP is not immune to the current economic unrest in Europe.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bernanke: Trim deficit or else

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 07:13 AM PDT

Bernanke is on the wires and warns that the US needs to trim the government deficit to avoid great damage to the economy.

Forex QUICK: USDJPY rallies on better economic data

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 07:11 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDJPY rallies on better economic data

Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence both Higher than Expections

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 07:09 AM PDT

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:

Survey:  10       Actual:  30        Prior:  6          Revised: -

 

Richmond fed has reached its highest number since  February of 2009.

 

 

 Consumer Confidence:

Survey:  53.5       Actual:  57.9      Prior: 52.5         Revised:52.3

 

Consumer Confidence has raised to the highest level since 2008.

Forex QUICK:Gold bounces off 200 hour MA support. Watching closely

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 06:43 AM PDT

Forex QUICK:Gold bounces off 200 hour MA support. Watching closely

Forex QUICK: EURUSD looks toward next support at 1.3268

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 06:37 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD looks toward next support at 1.3268

Forex QUICK: USDJPY breaks below 100 hour MA at 93.60

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 06:27 AM PDT

USDJPY breaks below 100 hour MA at 93.60

Richmond Fed at 10:00 AM with Consumer Confidence

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 06:26 AM PDT

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index is due out at 10:00 AM. The expectation is for the index to rise to 10  from 6 in the prior reading.  The recent high reached 14 in July, August and September of 2009. 

 

Also at 10 AM the Consumer Confidence is expected to rise faintly from 53.5 from 52.5 last month.  Last month was the highest reading since September 2008.

Forex Morning Report - April 27

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 06:20 AM PDT

Forex News S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Numbers Mixed

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 06:03 AM PDT

CaseShiller Home Price Index for April was released a little bit worse than expected at 144.03 versus the 144.80 estimate and worse than the 145.32 reading the prior month. The 20 year over year composite had a reading of .64% lower than expected reading of 1.30%. The positive reading was the first increase on a YoY basis since Dec 2006. However, the fall from the high has taken home prices down 30% from the highs.

So although good news to be positive, the pain from housing decline continues to weigh.

Forex QUICK: USDCAD breaks above key 1.0060 level

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 05:57 AM PDT


USDCAD breaks above 1.0060. See video

The NY Economic Releases and Events for April 27th

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 05:15 AM PDT

For a review of Economic releases and events for April 27th click on the video.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 04:37 AM PDT


Todays Opening Commentary takes a look at the major currency pairs including the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and the NZDUSD. It will get you going to your NY trading day.

CBI Realized Sales

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 03:02 AM PDT

UK realized sales came in at 13; worse than the survey of 16, but in line with the prior reading. Cable is trading off session lows of 1.5329.

UK BBA Mortgage Approvals

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 01:32 AM PDT

 Mortgage approvals in the UK came in slightly worse than expected; 34.9K versus a forecast of 39.3K and prior reading of 35.3K. The market had a limited reaction as GBP/USD trades at the 1.5300 handle.

Cable test 61.8% on hourly

Posted: 27 Apr 2010 12:54 AM PDT

The GBP/USD has traded lower over the past two hours and has now tested the 61.8% retracement level at 1.5372. The prior hourly candlestick made a high of 1.5449, which also comes in at the 23.6% fibo line, and has traded continually lower.  During the move downward the pair broke through the both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages as well as the 50.0% and 38.2% retracement levels. After finding support at 1.5372, the pair has since traded slightly higher. The next significant level to the upside is the 200 hour moving average which comes in at 1.5391 and further is the 100 hr MAVG at 1.5403.

4-27-gbpusd
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