Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Philly Fed Index comes in at 20.2 which is as expected
• EURUSD consolidates the nights losses
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• US Net TIC Flows comes in larger than expected
• Forex QUICK:GBPUSD corrects toward upside resistance
• Empire Manufacturing better but jobless claims worse
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.15.2010
• Economic Preview for April 15th 2010
• NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eur/Usd continues lower
• Soros senses risk to Euro
• Eur/Usd touches 100 hour M/A
• Italian Trade Balance
• Eur/Jpy below 100 day M/A
• Eur/Usd making new lows

Philly Fed Index comes in at 20.2 which is as expected Posted: 15 Apr 2010 07:00 AM PDT Prices Paid            42.7 vs.  38.6 Prices Received         1.0 vs.   -0.4 New Orders             13.9 vs.    9.3 Shipments               5.6  vs.  13.6 Unfilled Orders        -0.9 vs.   -4.9 Delivery Time           5.4  vs.   7.9 Inventories             2.0 vs.  -11.0 Number of Employees     7.3 vs.    8.4

EURUSD consolidates the nights losses Posted: 15 Apr 2010 06:45 AM PDT The sharp fall overnight as a result of increased Greek concerns has found some profit taking in the NY session. The price increase has been contained on the topside by the  1.3567 level. This level was a floor level on Monday and Tuesday.  The market remembers this and as a result the dip buyers use the level to take profits and traders who are inclined to sell rallies are using the level to sell. Stops are likely above with the next target being the 1.3585/91 area which was the initial low today and the 100 hour MA (blue line  in the chart above).   The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also moving lower and is approaching the resistance at the 1.3567 area (currently at the 1.3572). This adds to the importance of the level this morning.  On the downside, the 1.3487-94 level remains key support. The 50% retracement of the move up from March 8th low comes in at 1.3487. The 200 hour MA line (green line in the chart below) comes in at 1.3491 and the gap from Friday to Monday gets filled at 1.3494.  All contribute to good support at the level. A break below will next target the 1.3438 level (61.8% of the move up from April 8th low).

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 15 Apr 2010 06:25 AM PDT

US Net TIC Flows comes in larger than expected Posted: 15 Apr 2010 06:04 AM PDT The Net TIC Flows rose to 47.1B in February which was better than expectations and indicates that there was a flow into the US dollar in February. The dollar did rise in February especially against the GBP which was being hit as a result of debt and election issues.

Forex QUICK:GBPUSD corrects toward upside resistance Posted: 15 Apr 2010 06:01 AM PDT

Empire Manufacturing better but jobless claims worse Posted: 15 Apr 2010 05:35 AM PDT The Jobless claims came in at 484K which was much worse than expected. The Easter holiday is being blamed for some of the weakness. Meanwhile the Empire Manufacturing came in stronger at 31.86 vs expectations of 24.0.  This helps confirm things like the stronger retail sales and export growth. The USDJPY sold off on the claims data as jobs are still key, but is rebounding as the Easter excuse takes hold. Looking at the hourly chart a move above the 100 hour MA at the 93.22 level would be needed to push bias bullish for the pair today and target the 200 hour MA at 93.49 level.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.15.2010 Posted: 15 Apr 2010 05:14 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro fell as continued concerns that the bailout for Greece will not be enough to contain the region’s debt crisis from spreading.  The cost of Greek 10 year notes vs. German securities has increased to more than 400 basis points.   Investors are doubting the success of the EU bailout plan and the marketplace is anticipating that Greece will need all of the bailout funds that were offered in the bailout package-and speculation mounts that the Greek debt crisis will be higher than the 45 Bil euros that has been pledged by the EU and IMF. In Asia, rumors swirled that the Chinese are palnning on a revaluation of their currency by up to 5%-which saw some selling of JPY pairs. World equity markets were mostly lower-and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening. Oil:$85.43                                            Gold:$1152.70     TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30a.m. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 10-Apr 440K 460K 8:30a.m. CONTINUING CLAIMS 3-Apr 4583K 4550K 8:30a.m. EMPIRE MANUFACTURING APRIL 24.OO 22.86′ 9:00a.m. NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS FEB. $38.9B $19.1B 9:00a.m. TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS FEB. $33.4B 9:15a.m. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MAR. 0.70% 0.10% 9:15A.M. CAPACITY UTILIZATION MAR. 73.30% 72.70% 10:00A.M. PHILADELPHIA FED  APRIL 20.O 18.9O 1:00P.M. NAHB HOUSING MRKT INDEX  APRIL        16.O 15.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Economic Preview for April 15th 2010 Posted: 15 Apr 2010 05:05 AM PDT

NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 15 Apr 2010 04:45 AM PDT

Eur/Usd continues lower Posted: 15 Apr 2010 02:19 AM PDT Eur/Usd is testing 1.3545, a level cited in an earlier post signifying an old hourly low that should act as support. A break of this level may send the pair on its way to 1.3493, which would signify a filling of the gap left from Sunday’s opening. Coincidentally, the 200 hour M/A lies at the same 1.3493.

Soros senses risk to Euro Posted: 15 Apr 2010 01:20 AM PDT    George Soros thinks the Euro and the European Union are at risk of breaking up if Germany refuses to play its traditional role and make concessions.                 “The Germans have always made the concessions needed to advance the European Union, when people were looking for a deal. Not any more,” Soros was quoted as saying. Euro weakness across the board continues and this commentary from Soros doesn’t help the currency. Currently Eur/Usd trades at 1.3570, Eur/Jpy at 126.20 and Eur/Gbp at .8775. All at or near weakest levels of session for the Euro.

Eur/Usd touches 100 hour M/A Posted: 15 Apr 2010 01:09 AM PDT Eur/Usd has just traded down to its 100 hour M/A of 1.3585. For the moment it appears to be able to hold this level. A break below should bring the pair down to 1.3545, an old hourly low. If the pair can hold Eur/Usd may ascend initially to 1.3630, with a further move up to 1.3650 likely.

Italian Trade Balance Posted: 15 Apr 2010 01:05 AM PDT Italy’s February trade balance was -2.33B; slightly better than the -2.37B forecast and 3.40B prior reading, but the market had a very limited reaction to the release.

Eur/Jpy below 100 day M/A Posted: 15 Apr 2010 12:27 AM PDT Eur/Jpy is trading below its 100 day M/A of 127.00. Since closing above the 100 day yesterday the pair has yet to trade any lower. If the pair could hold look for a move initially to 127.60, with stronger resistance at 127.90-00, which is an old daily high dating back to April 5. A break below should bring the pair down to 126.50-60 initially, with a further momentum bring Eur/Jpy down to 125.47, which is the 38.2% fibo of move up from 121.41.

Eur/Usd making new lows Posted: 15 Apr 2010 12:12 AM PDT Greek 10 year bond yield premium to German bunds rose above 400 basis points. This is the highest since the rescue plan was agreed upon on April 11. Eur/Usd has drifted down to a new low of 1.3611 on the news.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610