Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Video QUICK. GBPUSD tests support at 1.5181
• NY Morning Forex Commentary takes a look at the mkt post the NFP
• EURUSD tests support at 100 hour MA
• Jobs ex-census sends the USDJPY higher
• NFP +162 but excluding census +114K
• EURUSD key levels
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.2.2010
• Preview of risk and key levels for the US NFP report
• 4-2 Economic Calendar
• BOJ’s Kan on the Wire
• Japanese Monetary Base
• Fed’s Dudley Speaks
• Rebroadcast of Thursday’s Online Training
• Fed’s Bullard on the wires..
• USDCHF rallies strongly on the intervention

Forex Video QUICK. GBPUSD tests support at 1.5181 Posted: 02 Apr 2010 07:19 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

NY Morning Forex Commentary takes a look at the mkt post the NFP Posted: 02 Apr 2010 06:56 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD tests support at 100 hour MA Posted: 02 Apr 2010 06:26 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved lower to support against the 100 hour MA at the 1.3493.  The market has moved below but has pushed back higher.  A break below will next target the trendline support at the 1.3470 level. Upside resistance should come in at the 1.3518 level now.  This is the 38.2% of the move down from the post report high.

Jobs ex-census sends the USDJPY higher Posted: 02 Apr 2010 06:03 AM PDT The headline number was worse than expected however, the ex census at 114,000 was probably better than what the market was expected. As a result the USDJPY moved lower than higher.  The low off the initial reaction went to 93.62, just below the lows for the day and the NY lows yesterday. The market is making new highs currently. The market is above the highs for yesterday and the pre-employment high today at the 94.05 area. Look for support against this key level.  On the topside, the trendline of the channel comes in at 94.81.  This would be the 1st target on the upside.  Additional upside resistance would come in at the 95.08 level.  This is the 61.8% of the 2009 high to low trading range (see chart below).

NFP +162 but excluding census +114K Posted: 02 Apr 2010 05:31 AM PDT This is better than expectations. Unemployment 9.7% Discourage Unemployment rate 16.9% which is up on the month.  Goods-producing                 41  vs   -47 last month    Mining and logging              9   vs    6 last month    Construction                   15 vs   -59 last month    Manufacturing                  17 vs      6 last month     Durable goods                 21 vs     3 last month      Motor vehicles & parts        3  vs   -10 last month     Nondurable goods              -4  vs     3 last month   Private service-providing       82 vs    55 last month  Wholesale trade                 9   vs     4 last month Retail trade                   15  vs       8 last month Transportation & warehouse      8  vs     -9 last month Information                   -12   vs    -7 last month Financial activities          -21  vs    -15 last month Prof, Business services        11  vs     40 last month  Temporary help services       40  vs     37 last month Education & Health             45  vs     27 last month  Health, Social assistance     37  vs     19 last month Leisure & hospitality          22   vs    16 last month Other services                  6  vs     -9 last month Government                       39   vs   -22 last month

EURUSD key levels Posted: 02 Apr 2010 05:19 AM PDT Below are some key levels to watch for the EURUSD today. 1.3618.  In the daily chart below, the 1.3618 level is the trendline connecting the highs from 2010.  A move up toward this level should find profit taking sellers at least initially. If the level is taken out to the upside, the market should see a move further move up for the pair.  Longer term, the 1.3768 would be a target. This is the 38.2% retracement of the 2010 high to low trading range. 1.3495. The 1.3495 level is the 100 hour moving average (see chart below).  The 100 hour MA was tested and held yesterday and bounced. On Tuesday this week, the same moving average was tested and held (see blue line in the chart below). On Wednesday, the price moved below this key MA level, had one hourly close below the line and bounced (the market had 5 bars where the price traded below but only one closed below the line).  The failure to extend the downside gave the buyers confidence for a move higher and the market moved higher.  Look for buyer against the level on an initial dip.  A break of this level would target 1.3467 which is the trendline in the channel support. Below that level, the 200 hour MA at the 1.3445 will be eyed.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.2.2010 Posted: 02 Apr 2010 05:06 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD was a touch stronger in thin overnight trading, as signs that the US economy is starting to show signs of recovery.  Also boosting the USD sentiment is speculation that today’s jobs data may show that the US added the most jobs in almost 3 years. Markets are very thin, with the Good Friday Holiday closing Western Europe and many Asian countries as well. Asian equity markets (Tokyo, S.Korea, and China) were higher overnight.  US Equity markets are closed for the day. Oil and Gold were also higher in thin trading. Oil:$84.87                                       Gold:$1126.10 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS MAR. 182K -36K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACTUR PAYROLLS MAR. 14K 1K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS MAR. -18K 8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MAR. 9.70% 9.70% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY ALL EMP. YoY MAR. 1.90% 1.90% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNING MoM MAR. 0.20% 0.10% 8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS  MAR.      33.9O     33.8O HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Preview of risk and key levels for the US NFP report Posted: 02 Apr 2010 04:19 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

4-2 Economic Calendar Posted: 01 Apr 2010 09:33 PM PDT

BOJ’s Kan on the Wire Posted: 01 Apr 2010 05:51 PM PDT The BOJ’s Kan had the following comments in Asia that helped moved the risk pairs off session highs momentarily. With a thin market ahead of a holiday weekend in many parts of the world and the anticipation of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll release the market could remain relatively quiet in the NY morning. The details of his comments are as follows: Yen is weakening significantly. Seeing gradual improvement in Japan economy. Prospects for self-sustaining recovery still weak. Will start to explore use of reserve funds and budget funds in Diet. Not planning to compile extra budget. Not desirable to pressure China on Yuan.

Japanese Monetary Base Posted: 01 Apr 2010 04:59 PM PDT Japan’s monetary base came in at 2.1%; worse than both it’s forecast of 2.3% and prior reading of 2.2%.

Fed’s Dudley Speaks Posted: 01 Apr 2010 03:15 PM PDT New York FED President Dudley made the following comments at a conference in Lexington, Virginia: Sees a ”muted” U.S. recovery justifying low rates. “Near term” inflation is likely to be “very low”. “Job creation is still much too slow”. The U.S. seems headed towards a ”sustained” employment growth. Expects “gradual healing process” for the labor market. The job market in 2011 will improve over this year. The U.S. can’t run larget deficits “indefinitely”. Reverse repo tests could be large.

Rebroadcast of Thursday’s Online Training Posted: 01 Apr 2010 02:21 PM PDT Watch the special training on how to trade the US Non-farm payrolls release. Click here to watch

Fed’s Bullard on the wires.. Posted: 01 Apr 2010 01:42 PM PDT James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed, has released the following statements: Expecting a positive jobs number tomorrow. Shouldn’t read too much into one jobs report. The U.S. recovery is proceeding at the correct pace. Policy makers “don’t want to get into a box”. The Fed is still mulling over the discount rate spread. The Fed wants ”to get to a more normal balance sheet”. There is some possibility we’d go back to 100 basis pt spread. Falling jobless claims are a “welcome development”. Housing is most likely stable at these low levels. He will be ”concerned” if the Fed’s emergency powers cut back too much. Inflation expectations are “critically important”. TIPS measures are “not worrisome at this point”. Sees a return to normal assets ” in reasonable” time frame. Asset cuts may involve sales; the timing is uncertain. A change in extended time period won’t mean there will be tighten soon. TIPS could “ratchet up” with more growth.

USDCHF rallies strongly on the intervention Posted: 01 Apr 2010 09:23 AM PDT The USDCHF moved sharply higher on the SNB rumored intervention .  The price top?  The top stopped at the 100 hour MA at 1.6011. The high reached 1.0610.  HMMM.  Well although the move was too fast for me, other participants had the 100 hour MA level in mind and seems to have gladly offered the market down from the level.  Now with the intervention out of the way, the floor is set for the USDCHF and the EURCHF. The USDCHF moved to a low of 1.0434. The EURCHF floor came in at the 1.4150 area.  What I like to do when there is a spike move higher due to some news or event is to set the Fibonacci. IF the price stays above the 50% retracement, the move is still in tact. IF the price moves below the midpoint, it is not good and will likely mean an end of the trend.  Look for support against the 1.0522 but don’t be surprised if there is not demand for the pair unless there is a second round.  Traders may be more inclined square some offsides positions after the fact, than speculate for further gains.

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