Monday, April 26, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EU’s Rehn says EU, ECB and IMF will complete Greek review in time

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:58 AM PDT

The clock is ticking and until it is done, the market will remain a bit skeptical.

Germany’s Merkel on the newswires

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:47 AM PDT

Says Greece must show budget cuts to get German aid.

France Lagarde on the newswires

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:36 AM PDT

Says:

  • ECB, EU currently “negotiating” Greece Plan
  • Civil servants salaries must be cut by a significant amount
  • IMF brings experience to the problem
  • Experience, wisdom, moderation must guide the crisis response.
  • Europe, Japan and UK slow growth. US and Asia (China) fastest.
  • G20 calls for more balanced global growth.
  • Need sustainable growth, not just fiscally sponsored growth.
  • Credit expansion is key to economic growth.

NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:23 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDJPY consolidating today but concerns about debt remains.

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:00 AM PDT

EURUSD tests 1.3343-46 intraday resistance in early NY trading

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 05:48 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: GBPUSD remains supported in early NY trade

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 05:39 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.26.2010

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 05:11 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro dropped as concerns that EU countries will have hurdles as they look to ratify the aid package to Greece.
With Southern European countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy also facing sovereign debt issues-the Euro will continue to be under pressure.  
The spread between Greek and German bonds has widened to over 600 basis points-showing the marketplaces uncertainty regarding Greece.

Asian equity markets were mixed-European markets are higher-and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning.

Oil:$85.37                                                      Gold:$1156.60

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Morning Forex Report is available for viewing

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 04:32 AM PDT

Merkel to Speak at 3 p.m. in Berlin

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 03:38 AM PDT

A German government spokesperson confirmed in a phone interview today that Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, will make comments today at 3 p.m. (local time) on Greek aid situation.

USD/CHF finds 38.2% Retracement

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 02:45 AM PDT

On the hourly chart, USD/CHF poked its head above the 38.2% retracement level when it made its session high of 1.0787. The pair has found support from the 100 hour moving average twice today and has not traded below the 100 hour line since April 16th. If it can close above the 38.2% level, this could be a bullish sign for the pair. If resistance is found, the next key downside level is the 50.0% fibo at 1.0761 and further lower is the 61.8% at 1.0741.

swiss-hourly

Germany’s Indecision to Help Greece is Weighing on the Euro

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 02:25 AM PDT

Comments have come out of Germany that they are still indecisive and are dragging their feet to provide aid to Greece; EUR/USD traded lower on the back on this news and the pair made a new session low of 1.3310. Also, 2 year Greek note yields rose 211 basis points to 13.04%.

Additionally, the EUR/USD broke through the 38.2% retracement on the hourly chart and the pair has not been able to close above the 100 hour MAVG (1.3374)so far today. To the downside, there have been some hourly openings at 1.3285 in the past week, there may be possible support here, and the topside brings us back to the 38.2% fibo line and further higher is the 50.0% at 1.3362.

 

425-eur

Greek minister says IMF debt talks are ‘going well’ -BBC

Posted: 25 Apr 2010 10:36 AM PDT

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8642941.stm

What concerns me about the story is potential for failure and the ideas for debt reduction.  France and Germany are drawing a line in the sand that Greece must take full responsibility for their actions and that if they don’t, funding will be stopped. In addition, there is the question of public support in the “have” countries.   The moral hazards of bailouts are difficult to swallow and can threaten the fabric of the stronger countries society. 

Finally, the idea for debt reduction are of a concern to me.  Specifically, Greek Minister Papaconstantinou “suggested his country could raise funds by embarking on a privatisation programme” and that  “There are many options that will allow us to gain by reducing the stake in public companies. The Greek state has an enormous number of real estate assets, over hundreds of billions.”

The thing about real estate assets in this overvalued, bubble busting age is it is an expensive asset, and market liquidity is low.  Moreover, what is the liability side owed on the assets.  That is, are the assets financed with government debt and are the assets upside down when compared to the potential selling price.   It does not matter what the asset value is if the liability is greater.  It is unclear what can be sold and at what price and when.  That would be my fear that could cause the house of cards to all fall down. Now, he does say they number in the hundreds of billions so in theory if they need $50-60 billion, selling the assets could solve the problem, but show me the assets first and show me the willing buyers. 

There is no doubt that the money for the rollover of the May debt obligation will be found.  It is not clear from a fundamental standpoint if the ship can be righted in the long run.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)