Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Video QUICK: USDJPY support at 92.86 resistance at 93.12
• Forex Video QUICK: GBPUSD still moving up and down
• Forex Video QUICK: Greek debt burden and the EURUSD
• Forex Morning Report - April 8
• ECB Trichet headlines
• Initial Claims worse but Continuing Claims better
• Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM. Greek debt yields soar.
• April 8th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• UK Bank Rate Unchanged
• German Industrial Production
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• UK Manufacturing/ Industrial Production
• USD/JPY Moving Towards 38.2% Retracement
• Halifax HPI
• Gbp/Usd trading below 200 hour M/A

Forex Video QUICK: USDJPY support at 92.86 resistance at 93.12 Posted: 08 Apr 2010 07:01 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Forex Video QUICK: GBPUSD still moving up and down Posted: 08 Apr 2010 06:49 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Forex Video QUICK: Greek debt burden and the EURUSD Posted: 08 Apr 2010 06:29 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Forex Morning Report - April 8 Posted: 08 Apr 2010 06:25 AM PDT Click on the post to watch the video

ECB Trichet headlines Posted: 08 Apr 2010 05:36 AM PDT Growth will remain uneven due to special factors Medium term price stability will be maintained Rates are appropriate Data suggests economic recovery Risks are broadly balanced Growth of loans /M3 likely to remain weak Banks need further balance sheet adjustments Governments must correct excessive deficits Strong focus on expenditures needed Welcomes EU leaders statement on Greece ECB will set up Graded Haircut collaterol system that applies to BBB+ to BBB- (i.e. Greece). No reason to think Greek plan won’t be implemented.

Initial Claims worse but Continuing Claims better Posted: 08 Apr 2010 05:32 AM PDT Initial Claims rise to 460K vs 435K Continuing Claims fall to 4550K vs 4630 expectations and down from 4681K. It is a mixed bag with one better and one worse.

Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM. Greek debt yields soar. Posted: 08 Apr 2010 04:55 AM PDT  The expectations is for a small decline to 435K from 439K last week. The Continuing Claims is expected to fall to 4630K from 4662K last week. The number does not include extended claims so although trending down, is not a true reflection of the unemployed. The market will be interested in hearing the comments from ECBs Trichet at 8:30 AM. The Greek debt situation is gettting worse and worse with the spread between German and Greek debt soaring to 442  basis points and the yield soaring to 7.5%. Over the next month or so the Greeks have to rollover around 16+ billion euros of debt. They will need to have some debt support from the ECB or IMF as the debt interest burden is too high and simply adds to the woes from their required austerity program.  The situation is getting increasingly dicey as the market tightens the screws and looks for some meaningful response from the EU.  Be aware.Risk is increasing. For your guide Greece has the following debt rollovers: April 20 (8.2 bln euros of 5-year, 3.1 percent bonds mature) May 19 (8.5 bln euros of 10-year, 6 percent bonds come due)

April 8th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 08 Apr 2010 04:34 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

UK Bank Rate Unchanged Posted: 08 Apr 2010 04:02 AM PDT The BOE left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and the asset purchase target came in as expected at 200B for April.

German Industrial Production Posted: 08 Apr 2010 03:02 AM PDT The market showed no reaction to worse than expected Feb German retail numbers. Industrial Production - Survey: 1.0%   Actual: 0.0%   Prior: 0.6% Industrial Production - Survey: 6.3%   Actual: 5.8%   Prior: 2.2%

Eurozone Retail Sales Posted: 08 Apr 2010 02:04 AM PDT An already depressed euro managed to hold ground after the release of a worse than expected February retail sales out of the eurozone. Retail Sales (y/y) - Survey: -0.4%   Actual: -1.1%   Prior: -1.3% Retail Sales (m/m) - Survey: 0.0%   Actual: -0.6%   Prior: -0.3%

UK Manufacturing/ Industrial Production Posted: 08 Apr 2010 01:32 AM PDT The GBP appreciated across the board after the UK’s February industrial and manufacturing production numbers came in better than expected. The details are as follows: Industrial Production (y/y) - Survey: 0.5%   Actual: 1.0%   Prior: -0.4% Industrial Production (m/m) - Survey: -0.5%   Actual: -0.1%   Prior: -1.5% Manufacturing Production (m/m) - Survey: 0.6%   Actual: 1.3%   Prior: -0.9% Manufacturing Production (y/y) - Survey: 0.8%   Actual: 1.4%   Prior: 0.2%

USD/JPY Moving Towards 38.2% Retracement Posted: 08 Apr 2010 01:21 AM PDT The USD/JPY pair has traded through the 100 and 200 hour moving averages this session and now appears to be heading towards the 38.2% retracement level. As shown on the hourly chart, this level has acted as support on March 31 and the pair also tested it twice to the up side a week earlier. If it breaks and holds this level the next target to the downside is the 50.0% level which comes in at 92.27.

Halifax HPI Posted: 08 Apr 2010 01:03 AM PDT The GBP traded higher on the release of a better than expected Halifax HPI number as the market waits for the manufacturing and industrial production numbers due out in less than 30 minutes. The details are as follows: Halifax House Prices (m/m) - Survey: 0.5%   Actual: 1.1%   Prior: -1.5% Halifax House Price 3mths/year - Survey: 4.7%   Actual: 5.2%   Prior: 4.5%

Gbp/Usd trading below 200 hour M/A Posted: 08 Apr 2010 12:49 AM PDT Gbp/Usd is trading below its 200 hour M/A of 1.5169.If it can remain under this level a run down to 1.5127, an area of old hourly lows, is likely. If the pair bounces above 1.5169 a run back up to 1.5200-10 is expected.

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