Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex Video QUICK: USDCAD tests parity but fights channel boundaries.

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 07:18 AM PDT

Forex Video QUICK: USDJPY trying to figure out the direction after fall.

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 07:03 AM PDT

Forex Video QUICK: GBPUSD finds a consolidation level. What now?

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 06:50 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report - April 6

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 06:30 AM PDT

USDJPY moves back above the 100 hour MA

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 05:57 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-0175

The USDJPY is moving back above the 100 hour MA at the 93.95 level.  The level will now be watched for support.  Earlier today the market bottomed at the 38.2% retracement level at the 93.76 level. The bounce is positive for the pair and may suggest we will see buyers on dips.

Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price break above the 100 hour MAat 93.95, sent the price up but the pair stalled at the confirming 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  So the market is saying it is still unsure of the direction.  Above the 100 hour MA is bullish.  The holding of the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute is bearish. 

fxdd-pic-0176

Forex Video QUICK: EURUSD falls to next suppport as Greek debt weighs

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 05:42 AM PDT

EURUSD moves to new lows. 1.3391 is the next target to get through

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 05:06 AM PDT

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The EURUSD has moved to new lows for the day at the 1.3397. The price has trended down today on the back of higher Greek yields and talk of money flowing out of Greece.  This has led to a trend type move to the downside with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart for most of the trading day.  The current 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.3418 level (blue line in the chart above).  This moving average will guide the action today.  Staying below is bearish.  A move above will likely signal a pause in the trend and the potential for a corrective move back toward the 200 bar MA on the same chart and/or a move to test the 1.3437 level. This level corresponds to the March 2nd low which was the low for 2010 before the new move lower on March 24th (see chart below). Staying below these levels keep the integrity of the bearishness in tact for the pair. 

fxdd-pic-0173

On the downside, the pair does have support at the 1.3391 level which is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 25th low to the April 2nd high.  A break of this level will next look toward 1.3363 and the 1.3346.

fxdd-pic-0174

The Greek situation is leading to the spread between Greek bond yields and German bond yields to widen to the highest spread since January 28th. The spread is currently at 3.82%.  Moreover, the cost of the Greek 10 year debt is also at the highest rate since the same date with 10 year yields at 6.95% versus 7.16% at the peak.  The higher yields will not lead to debt reduction on the Greek governments books.  As a result, the situation is getting more bleak since the “rescue measures” versus before.

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The April 6th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 04:15 AM PDT

Gbp/Jpy below 100 hour M/A

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 03:03 AM PDT

As stated earlier, Gbp/Jpy had found some support at its 100 hour M/A and threatened to break below. The pair has indeed broken below this level and has met some support at 142.00-10. I suspect this is a brief stop on its way down to 141.73, where there should be stronger support. If the pair reverses and goes higher the 100 hour M/A should be looked upon as resistance. To the downside its 200 hour M/A lies down at 140.68, though we are still pretty far off this support.

vincent_fx00040

Cable Approaches 61.8%

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 01:45 AM PDT

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has traded above the 100 bar moving average since March 29 until it broke below it this session. The next target to the downside is the 61.8% retracement level which comes in at 1.5157. It should also be noted that both the 50.0% level and the 200 bar moving average come in at 1.5089; this could show strong support if the 61.8% level is broken.

cable-hourly

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 01:34 AM PDT

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence came in at 2.5 , stronger than the -5.9 expected and prior reading of -7.5.

This number is normally not a big market mover. The release may give a boost to the Euro which has been trading at depressed levels.

Currently Eur/Usd trades at 1.3415, Eur/Jpy at 125.90 and Eur/Gbp at .8840.

UK Construction PMI

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 01:32 AM PDT

The GBP gained slightly after the UK construction PMI came in at 53.1; better than both the forecast and prior readings of 48.5.

Swiss CPI m/m

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 12:18 AM PDT

The CHF traded slightly higher after its m/m reading came in as expected as 0.1% for March making a new session high of 1.0684 against the USD.

Gbp/Jpy finding support at 100 hour M/A

Posted: 05 Apr 2010 10:41 PM PDT

Gbp/Jpy seems to be running into support at its 100 hour M/A of 142.96. After trading lower for the last 6 hours. If the pair holds above a retracement to 143.60, which is the 38.2% Fibo, is likely. A break below could send the pair down to 141.70-80 , an area of old hourly lows, as there is not much support below the 100 hour M/A.

vincent_fx00039

AUD/USD Tests Trendline

Posted: 05 Apr 2010 10:15 PM PDT

The AUD/USD pair has found trendline resistance on the daily chart since November 16 and has tested the line six times until now. After the RBA raised their cash rate 25 basis points the pair broke above the trendline which comes in at .9217 and made a new session high of .9228, but has since retreated back below the line. Now trading at the support level, it will be interesting to see if the pair can break and hold above the trendline.

aud-daily1
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