Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCAD moves below trendline support.
- ISM comes in stronger
- US PMI due out at 10:00 AM
- GBPUSD falls sharply but holds intraday MA support
- Forex Morning Report - April 1
- EURUSD range trading. Runs into sellers above
- USDJPY continues it’s move higher today, but stalling after making new 2010 highs
- US Jobless Claims come in at 439K as expected
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.1.2010
- US Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM
- EURUSD tests first downside target at 1.3477/1.3482
- Challenger Job Cuts worse than expected
- The April 1st 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- Eur/Chf makes new record low
- UK Manufacturing PMI
| USDCAD moves below trendline support. Posted: 01 Apr 2010 07:26 AM PDT
The USDCAD moved below trendline support at the 1.0102 level and scooted to ta new low of 1.0087. However, the price has rebounded and is looking to test the backside of the trendline. A move back above would be disappointing. The low for 2010 is 1.0060. The market has parity i.e. 1.0000 in it’s sights. Look for sellers against 1.0108 stops (above lows from earlier today). A move below the lows targets the 1.0060 level.
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| Posted: 01 Apr 2010 07:02 AM PDT
ISM for March rises to 59.6 frm 56.5 last month. This is better than expected ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 58.0 VS 61.0 IN FEBRUARY Construction spending meanwhile came in worse than expected at -1.3% vs expectation of -1.0% . Last month was revised lower to -1.4% from -0.6% originally reported. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Apr 2010 06:58 AM PDT Expectation is for a rise to 57 from 56.5 in February | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD falls sharply but holds intraday MA support Posted: 01 Apr 2010 06:32 AM PDT
The GBPUSD fell down below the 1.5247 level after holding the upside trendline resistance and the price fell sharply. The price moved down to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart but found quick profit taking buyers. The price is now between the two levels and I would look for the 1.5247 level to now provide resistance while the 100 bar MA below will be eyed for support (along with the 200 bar - at 1.5222 and 1.5210 respectively). Looking at the hourly chart, the channel resistance held in early Far East trading. The top trendline comes in currently at the 1.5280 level. Keep this channel in mind as there are a number of tests over the last 4 days. The bottom of an interim channel line comes in at the 1.5204 level. The lower channel support comes in at 1.5152. Keep these channel levels in mind. They have been holding on the top and downside consistently. As a result, when the price breaks, it is likely the market will notice and there should be a momentum move in the direction of the break.
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| Forex Morning Report - April 1 Posted: 01 Apr 2010 06:30 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD range trading. Runs into sellers above Posted: 01 Apr 2010 06:23 AM PDT
The 100 hour MA held the downside move this morning (see earlier post). The resulting push back higher however, has run into resistance at the 1.3505 level which was a floor from yesterday and is also where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found. As a result we are seeing the sellers against the level. Support remains at the 100 hour MA below. Resistance at the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart above. A break should see further momentum in the direction of the break with 1.3437 being another key level on the downside for the EURUSD to get through.
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| USDJPY continues it’s move higher today, but stalling after making new 2010 highs Posted: 01 Apr 2010 05:36 AM PDT
The USDJPY has moved higher today, making new 2010 highs at 93.77. However, the pair did not get the boost it needed from the Initial Claims. As a result, the price is correcting lower. The resistance will now be once again at the 93.77 level.
Initial support can be found at the 100/200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 93.53/48 levels. Other support comes in at the 93.37 level where the trendline on the hourly chart is currently located. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Jobless Claims come in at 439K as expected Posted: 01 Apr 2010 05:30 AM PDT This is as expected. (estimate 440K) Continuing Claims come in at 4662 which is worse than expected | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.1.2010 Posted: 01 Apr 2010 05:25 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD slipped overnight as speculation that the global recovery is gaining traction-thus diminishing the demand for the USD as a refuge. Risk seems to creeping back into the FX marketplace. World equity markets rallied, and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Commodities also jumped, as reports from China show that manufacturing is expanding at a steady pace. Oil:$84.48 Gold:$1115.90
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 01 Apr 2010 05:16 AM PDT
Expectation is for a decline to 440K from 442K last week. The Continuing Claims are expected to come in at 4618 vs 4648 last week. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD tests first downside target at 1.3477/1.3482 Posted: 01 Apr 2010 05:03 AM PDT
The 1.3477-82 level is 1st support for the EURUSD. This level is the 61.8% of the 2009 low to high trading range. The low today extended to 1.3475 before bouncing. Now the price is looking to break and move toward the next target at the 1.3457 level. This is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.
Better and stronger support comes in at 1.3437, the initial low price for 2010 reached on March 2nd 2010.
Upside resistance will now come in at the 1.3493/99 level where the 38.2% of the last move higher and teh 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart come in (see chart below).
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| Challenger Job Cuts worse than expected Posted: 01 Apr 2010 04:43 AM PDT The US Challenger March Announced Job Cuts rose to 67,611 from 42,090 last month. This was worse than expected and will increase trader apprehension about tomorrows NFP. The expectation is for a 180K increase in jobs largely a result of hiring for the US Census. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The April 1st 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 01 Apr 2010 04:23 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The GBPUSD benefitted from stronger data today (PMI up strongly) but held the topside channel resistance. Meanwhile in the EUROZONE weaker German Retail Sales hurt the EURO. As a result the EURGBP fell back below the 200 day MA today and that currency pair will be watched closely. The 200 day MA comes in a 0.8865 in the EURGBP. Stronger China data helped send the JPY higher but the USDJPY rebounded toward the 2010 high price of 93.77, reaching a high of 93.71 and finding happy profit taking sellers before the key level. We start NY at 93.45 near intraday MA support on the 5 minute chart. The EURCHF made new all time lows as stronger data out of Switzerland (PMI up to 65.5) makes a tightening by Switzerland closer than one in the Eurozone. The EURCHF started its move down a few weeks ago when officials said businesses and consumers should get ready for higher rates and a free floating currency. NZDUSD was hit sharply on the back of an IMF report saying the NZD was overvalued. The pair is using the 200 hour at 0.7064 as upside resistance. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Apr 2010 02:07 AM PDT Eur/Chf has made a new record low of 1.4184. Chf strength has been seen during the session after the release of strong PMI figures. This adds more credence to the idea that the Swiss National Bank may raise rates before any move is made by the ECB.
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| Posted: 01 Apr 2010 01:35 AM PDT UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.2, stronger than the 56.8 expected and 56.5 prior reading. Good number for the GBP as Gbp/Usd has made a new high of 1.5246 and Eur/Gbp a new low at .8851. Currently both pairs are just off these levels. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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