Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Chicago PMI is rumored to be 58.8 which is worse than expected.
• EURUSD in a steep channel up
• Forex Morning Report - March 31 2010
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.31.2010
• Next Online Trading Class Thurs April 1 2010 4pm
• USDCAD moves lower on the better data
• Canada GDP up 0.6%. Better than expected.
• USDJPY falls below the 93.12
• ADP comes in much weaker
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Online Trading Class
• ADP expected to show a gain of 40K.
• Eurozone Unemployment highest since August 1998
• Eurozone CPI
• German Unemployment Change better than expected
• French Producer Prices

Chicago PMI is rumored to be 58.8 which is worse than expected. Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:45 AM PDT The USDJPY should move lower off the data.  The midpoint of the move up from yesterdays low comes in at the 92.85. Resistance comes in at the 93.12. This is the 50% of the 2009 high to low range.

EURUSD in a steep channel up Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:28 AM PDT The EURUSD trended higher today off the back of better employment out of Germany and higher CPI Flash data out of Eurozone.  The pair has been following a channel to the upside with current trendline support at the 1.3492 level and the upper trendline at the 1.3527 level.  Other support to watch comes in at 1.3482 which is the 61.8% retraceement of the move up from the 2009 low to the 2009 off the daily chart.  The trend is up today unless the trendline breaks.

Forex Morning Report - March 31 2010 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:25 AM PDT Click on the post to watch the video

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.31.2010 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:45 AM PDT Good Morning: I have been away for a few days with my family, and have kept abreast of the economic and political woes of the world.  With bombings in Russia and the EU still unclear of the debt issues within the Euro-Zone, the news has been anything but boring. Moody’s made comments that many EU countries need “brutal” budget adjustments in the near future to avaod debt explosion.  The JPY fell along with the USD.  The JPY dropped overnight as economists are looking for a positive ADP payroll report this morning.  Unexpectedly the ADP report showed a drop of 23K-which turned the USD negative.  Asian equity markets fell, and European markets rose.  USD futures are slightly lower this morning. Oil:$83.07                                   Gold:$1109.90  7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 26-Mar -4.20% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE MARCH 40K -20K 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER MARCH 61.O 62.6O 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS FEB. 0.50% 1.70% 10:00A.M. NAPM-MLWAUKEE MARCH 58.O 56.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Next Online Trading Class Thurs April 1 2010 4pm Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:41 AM PDT >> FXDD Webinar Trading Class is Thursday, April 1st 2010 at 4pm Register Here

USDCAD moves lower on the better data Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:40 AM PDT GDP rose better than expected. That coupled with the lower dollar tone has the pair moving back down. However,we are seeing a rebound off the lows.  Nevertheless, the stronger data should bring back into focus the parity level back for the pair.  If the US has a weak employment report that mimics the ADP report this morning and the Canada data continues to show strength, the trend for the pair seems firm. Oil is also up above $83 which is also a benefit. The BOC has said that the rates would remain the same through the 2nd quarter.  They seem on target to keeping that promise. From a technical basis, look for resistance at the 1.0160-66 level today. The 50% of the days range and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at the level.

Canada GDP up 0.6%. Better than expected. Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT The expectation was for a 0.5% gain. The USDCAD is continuing its move higher on the news. The gains versus Dec were stronger in most categories.  The only decline was a small decline in Services which fell from +0.5% in December to +0.4% in January. Real GDP 0.6% vs 0.5% Goods 1.3% vs 0.5% Manufacturing 1.9% vs 1.2% Services 0.4% vs 0.5% Wholesale 2.9% vs 1.7% Ind. production 1.3% vs 0.5% Energy 0.7% vs -0.3%

USDJPY falls below the 93.12 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:18 AM PDT The 50% retracement of the move down from the 2009 high to the low comes in at 93.12. The market has moved back down to test this level.  Look for some sellers against this level with stops on a move above 93.18 The next target will come in at 92.85. Better support comes in at the 92.65-92.72 area which was a base yesterday and where the 100 hour MA on the 5 minute chart comes in (at 92.65 currently).  The market will have to stay above this level to keep the bullishness in tact for the pair.  The USDJPY broke above the 200 day MA last week and his been support since that time.

ADP comes in much weaker Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:16 AM PDT Shows a fall of -23K vs +40K. This is much weaker and is leading to a fall in the USDJPY in early trade.

Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Online Trading Class Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:15 AM PDT Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Online Trading Class from March 30, 2010. Click here to watch Thursday, April 1st 2010 at 4pm Register Here

ADP expected to show a gain of 40K. Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:13 AM PDT This is supposed to mimic the US NFP but without government workers.  This month the US is expected tohave hired a slew of cencus workers hence the disparity between the ADP and the NFP estimate which is expected to show a 185K gain.

Eurozone Unemployment highest since August 1998 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 02:06 AM PDT Eurozone Unemployment rose to 10.0%, as expected, up from 9.9%. This is the highest reading since August 1998. This is not damaging news to Eur/Usd, as we continue to make new highs. The pair was last at 1.3466.

Eurozone CPI Posted: 31 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone CPI came in at 1.5%, stronger than the 1.1% expected and prior reading of 0.9%. Eu/Usd is making new highs at time of release, currently trading at 1.3462.

German Unemployment Change better than expected Posted: 31 Mar 2010 01:02 AM PDT German Unemployment Change fell by 31,000  , better than the 10,000 rise that was expected. Eur/Usd had made a run prior to release, making a new high of 1.3432. The pair has since pulled back to 1.3430.

French Producer Prices Posted: 30 Mar 2010 11:48 PM PDT French Producer Prices m/m came in at 0.1%, inline with forecast. Y/y came in at 1.0%, weaker than the 1.1% expected. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3425, unaffected by release.

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