Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• AUDUSD approaches the 100 day MA support
• Forex Morning Report - March 24
• EURUSD trying to bounce off intraday low but rallies are shallow
• UK Darling starts his budget speech. GBPUSD moves down
• Durable Goods up +0.5% Ex Trans better at +0.9%
• USDJPY breaks above topside resistance at 90.72 and breaks higher
• Rebroadcast of March 23 Online Trading Class
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.24.2010
• EURUSD trying to bottom but sentiment has change fundamentally and technically to the downside
• The March 24th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Fitch downgrades Portugal credit rating
• Eurozone Industrial Orders
• Eurozone PMI
• German IFO Business Climate
• German Manufacturing & Services PMI

AUDUSD approaches the 100 day MA support Posted: 24 Mar 2010 06:58 AM PDT The 100 day MA is approaching the 100 day MA at the 0.9067 The low today has reached 0.9090. There is good support at this level.  On Monday the low came in at the 0.9083 level.   On March 15th the low came in at 0.9094.    The AUDUSD moved below the 100 day MA in January, moving down to test the 200 day moving average at the 0.8560 area.  From there the market rebounded as the RBA raised rates and concerns about EURO took the pressure off the AUD and back on other currencies under more pressure.  The better US data today is giving the US dollar a boost and key technical levels are being breached in the process. A break of the low from Monday paves the way for a test of the 100 day MA.   A break should lead to further downside momentum with the 0.8974 level the next target. On the topside, look for resistance at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 0.9138.

Forex Morning Report - March 24 Posted: 24 Mar 2010 06:25 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD trying to bounce off intraday low but rallies are shallow Posted: 24 Mar 2010 06:15 AM PDT The EURUSD has bounced off an intraday low at 1.3333 and has minor trendline resistance at the 1.3358 level. The key retracement level to watch today will be the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. That level comes in at the 1.3390 level currently and moving  lower.   The price has stayed below this moving average for the entire day, testing it once during the London session, before moving sharply lower.  Bias remains to the downside for the EURUSD after breaking key support at the 1.3482 (61.8% retracement of the 2009 low to high move)  and the 1.3437/51 floor for 2010. Longer term, the EURUSD daily chart has a number of downside targets off of the the April to May period of 2009 which was the last time the price was at the area. 1.3301, 1.3245 and 1.3094 are support levels.  A longer term target, if the bias can remain to the downside on the intermediate and shorter term charts, would be the 1.2884 area. This is the channel support line off the daily chart. I would not focus on it, the EURUSD has other targets even on the shorter term chart. However, if the pair continues it bearish ways and stays below key resistance at the 1.3437 level,  a momentum to the downside could materialize. Be aware. Be prepared.

UK Darling starts his budget speech. GBPUSD moves down Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:39 AM PDT Unemployment not risen as much. Borrowing lower than forcast. Global economy more positive. Halve deficit in 4 yrs One time 2.5B one off growth package Bonus tax raised 2 billion pounds The GBPUSD initial reaction is a continuation of the move to the downside for the pair. The price is now below the low for the week at the 1.4930 and moving to test the 1.4900 level.  The next target on the downside comes in at 1.4871 which is the low from March 10th.

Durable Goods up +0.5% Ex Trans better at +0.9% Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT Revison is also better rising to +3.9%.  for the headline.(from 2.6%). Better for GDP 1st quarter. Non Defense Capital Goods ex aircraft rises a healthy 1.1% Ex Defense rises by 1.6% The numbers should continue the dollar bullish trend.  USDJPY breaks higher.

USDJPY breaks above topside resistance at 90.72 and breaks higher Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:25 AM PDT The USDJPY broke above the 90.72 level and moved sharply higher moving closer to the next target at the 200 day moving average. That level comes in at the 91.57 level.     The market has tested the 200 day MA on two separate occassions in January and in February at the 93.53 and 92.32.  These would be further upside target areas for the pair on a break higher.  The USDJPY has not closed above the 200 day MA since August 13th 2009 at the 95.08 level.  The USDJPY has now corrected over 38.2% of the move down from the March 2009 high to the November 2009 low.  That level comes in at 91.15 and will be a support level today.  The 50% of the move down comes in at 93.12 and this too will be a longer term target above. First things first, stay above the 91.15. Then break above the 200 day MA and close above. From there look for increased momentum to the upside target levels.

Rebroadcast of March 23 Online Trading Class Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:21 AM PDT MARCH 23 2010 FXDD Online Training -Click Here to watch Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell teach a session on core trading concepts.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.24.2010 Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:20 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro fell across the board as the EU may seek IMF assistance to bailout Greece.  The EUR/USD pair traded at the lowest level in 10 months, and CHF traded at a near record high against the single currency. More bad news hit the Euro Zone, as Fitch Ratings lowered Portugal’s credit grade overnight.  The EU will be put to a test regarding Greece’s debt issue.  If the EU has problems dealing with a relatively small issue like Greece’s debt problems-how will they deal with a real economic disaster?  The marketplace will be watching very closely to see how the EU will handle this problem, and the future of the Euro may be at the forefront of this decision.  Asian equity markets were lower, and Europe is lower.  US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. Metals and oil also dropped, as the dollar accelerated. Oil:$80.60                                                          Gold:$1094.10                   TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FEB. 0.50% 3.00% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION FEB. 0.60% -0.60% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  FEB. 315K 309K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM FEB. 1.90% -11.20% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD trying to bottom but sentiment has change fundamentally and technically to the downside Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:09 AM PDT There is more support in EU for IMF involvement than before.  Also can’t confirm there is an accord between Germany, France on IMF aid for Greece. The bias for a lower EURUSD has intensified and will likely not be objected to by the EU officials. The US seems to be fairing better of late and despite the negative dollar implications as a result of the debt situation, it is not immediate.  The focus is on the EURUSD and this will likely be the case for the near term.  Technically, the pair broke below the 61.8% of the 2009 low to high range at 1.3482 and the selling intensified through the support lows at 1.3437-51.  The next targets are 1.3300 and 1.3245.   The low from 2009 came in at 1.2456.  Of course, the pattern has been for EURO trend and US correction.  We will therefore  be watching bottoming potential for the pair and strength of the corrections. On the 5 minute chart, the 1.3390 level will be eyed on the topside (old corrective high). The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located at 1.3403 and this will also be resistance for the pair today.  The 38.2% of the high to low range for the day also comes in at 1.3403.

The March 24th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 24 Mar 2010 04:39 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Fitch downgrades Portugal credit rating Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:12 AM PDT Fitch downgrades Portugal credit rating to AA-, with a negative outlook.

Eurozone Industrial Orders Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:04 AM PDT Eurozone Industrial Orders m/m came in at -2.0%, weaker than the 2.0% estimate. Y/Y came in at 7.0%, weaker than the 13.9% expected. Eur/Usd just made new lows on heels of this negative data as the pair traded down to 1.3343.

Eurozone PMI Posted: 24 Mar 2010 02:07 AM PDT Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.3, stronger than the 54.1 expected. Services PMI came in at 53.7, stronger than the 52.0 These strong numbers don’t help the Euro as they normally would due to unrest among in some EU nations, namely Greece. Eur/Usd continues its slide, now trading at 1.3365.

German IFO Business Climate Posted: 24 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PDT German IFO Business Climate came in at 98.1, stronger than the 95.8 expected. This gave Eur/Usd a short lived boost above 1.3400. It abruptly changed course and currently trades at 1.3380 as Greece Concerns outweigh this positive data.

German Manufacturing & Services PMI Posted: 24 Mar 2010 01:32 AM PDT German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 59.6, stronger than the 56.9 expected. Services PMI came in at 54.7, stronger than the 52.2 expected. Eur/Usd relatively unchanged after release, trading either side of 1.3440.

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