Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Philly Fed comes in a touch better but New Orders down
• EURUSD moves back above 100 bar MA in range type trading
• Forex Morning Report - March 18
• USDJPY 100 day MA at 90.07 today
• USDCAD watching trendline support at 1.0083
• US data as expected
• CPI and Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.18.2010
• EURUSD falls on the Greece worries. Keeps below moving average resistance.
• March 18th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations
• Swiss ZEW Expectations
• Eurozone Trade Balance
• UK Public Sector Borrowing and Money Supply
• Eurozone Current Account

Philly Fed comes in a touch better but New Orders down Posted: 18 Mar 2010 07:02 AM PDT Index comes in at 18.9 vs 18.0 expectation but New Orders are down to 9.3 from 22.7. Future index is stronger however.  USDJPY moves up then down.  Holds 100 hour MA resistance. FACTORY INDEX AT 18.9 VS 17.6 last month  PRICES-RECEIVED AT -0.4 VS 3.7 last month  EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 8.4 VS 7.4 last month  PRICES-PAID INDEX AT 38.6 VS 32.4 last month  NEW ORDERS INDEX AT 9.3 VS 22.7 last month  FUTURE INDEX AT 52.0 VS 35.8 last month

EURUSD moves back above 100 bar MA in range type trading Posted: 18 Mar 2010 06:53 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved back above the 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart at the 1.3674 level in range type trading. The 1.3691 level remains key upside resistance for the pair above.  The high for NY is 1.3686 so far.  A move above these level would confirm further upside momentum is likely with the 200 bar MA on the same chart at 1.3700 the next target.  On the downside a move below the 1.3654 level should solicit more selling.  pressure with a move  to 1.3627 the next target. At 10 AM we have the Philadelphia Fed Index  with expectations of 18.0 vs 17.6 last month.

Forex Morning Report - March 18 Posted: 18 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY 100 day MA at 90.07 today Posted: 18 Mar 2010 05:55 AM PDT The price moved below the 100 day MA level overnight but bounced back (level is 90.07 today). The price moved back down to test the level off the CPI and 8:30 data and his back back again.  The level will continue to be a key level for traders today.  Look for buyers against the level with stops on moves back below. On the topside, a move above the 200 and 100 hour MA at the 90.35 and 90.43 level will help the bias further and would target key resistance at 90.72.

USDCAD watching trendline support at 1.0083 Posted: 18 Mar 2010 05:41 AM PDT The USDCAD broke through trendline support yesterday on its way to support at 1.0074 area.  The price corrected back above the trendline and is not back down looking to test the level.  When there is a quick reversal back above a trendline, I like to keep the integrity in tact to see how the market reacts the next time.  For one, the break was not sustainable and two, since the line is downward sloping in this case at least, a retest is also near the low from yesterday.  As a result, there may be buyers against the line and against stops below the low set yesterday. The line comes in at 1.0083 and this level will be watched closely today for the pair.  Dip buyers may look to use the level for  a low risk trade.   A break would not be welcomed, however as the fundamentals for the CAD$ remain positive.  Upside resistance for the pair needs to extend above the 1.0110 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  This would give a more bullish bias for the pair.

US data as expected Posted: 18 Mar 2010 05:32 AM PDT Jobless Claims come in at 457K vs 455K. CPI 0.0 vs +0.1% Ex Food and Energy +0.1% (as expected).  Current Account -115.6 for 4Q vs -119.0B.  All within a tolerance of expectations.

CPI and Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 18 Mar 2010 05:18 AM PDT Intial Claims expected to improve at 455K vs 462K last week.   One has to wonder if weather effects one day unwind and we find an improvement.  CPI comes in at +0.1% and Ex Food and Energy come in at +0.1%.  The YoY comes in at 2.3% vs 2.6% last month.  The Ex Food and Energy comes in at 1.4% vs 1.6% last month.  There is little in the way of inflation pressures as pricing power is not there.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.18.2010 Posted: 18 Mar 2010 05:17 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro lost ground in overnight trading.  It seems that the  region is rethinking it’s obligation to bailout Greece, and may be moving towards having the indebted country rely on the IMF  for any aid.  The recent Euro rally could well be quelled for the time being-as the problems that exist between Greece and Germany seem to be greater then the marketplace anticipated. The Greek Prime Minister set a one week deadline for the EU to come up with a rescue package for the country. EU ministers have an upcoming summit March 25-26, and hopefully they will draft a bailout package for Greece. ECB President Trichet, and French President Sarkozy have both ruled out any IMF involvement, stating that the EU can solve their own problems. World equity markets were mixed-and US Futures are basicaly flat at this time. Commodities are also lower accross the board. Oil:$82.27                                       Gold:$1125.30 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. CPI MoM FEB. 0.10% 0.20% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM FEB. 0.10% -0.10% 8:30A.M. CPI YoY FEB. 2.30% 2.60% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY YoY FEB. 1.40% 1.60% 8:30A.M. CPI CORE INDEX SA FEB. 22O.463 8:30A.M. CPI NSA FEB. 217.O43   216.687. 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 13-Mar      455K    462K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 6-Mar 4522K 4558K 8:30A.M. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE      4Q    -$119.3B -$108.8B 10:00A.M. PHILADELPHIA FED.  MAR.      18.O     17.6O 10:00A.M. LEADING INDICATORS      FEB. 0.10% 0.30% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD falls on the Greece worries. Keeps below moving average resistance. Posted: 18 Mar 2010 05:03 AM PDT The EURUSD has remained under pressure on the back of the Greece funding situation. The cost is too high (+310 basis points over comparable German bond yields) and they do not want to go to the IMF but they are not getting anything concrete from the EU.  The EU Trade Balance was better versus a year ago as exports show good strength.  The lower EURO seems to be helping in this respect and the news caused the EURUSD to bounce higher toward upside resistance.  From a technical perspective, the EURUSD has remained below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.3684 level.  A move above this level should solicit some additional profit taking today. with the 1.3706 being the next target (200 bar MA on the same chart). Looking at the hourly chart the 1.3681 level is also a key level.  It represents the 200 hour MA resistance level for the pair.  1.3671 is trendline support and the 50% of the low to high range comes in at 1.3627.  The market is back below the key 1.3691 level which has been a level the market has been paying attention to over the last few weeks.  Back in the meat of the trading range after peaking at 1.3817 yesterday.

March 18th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 18 Mar 2010 04:25 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations Posted: 18 Mar 2010 04:02 AM PDT The GBP didn’t budge after a worse than expected CBI industrial order expectations number which came in at -37 versus -33.

Swiss ZEW Expectations Posted: 18 Mar 2010 03:06 AM PDT Swiss economic expectations came in at 53.8, slightly higher than the prior reading of 52.5.

Eurozone Trade Balance Posted: 18 Mar 2010 03:01 AM PDT Eurozone trade balance, which was due out at 6 am, was released earlier than expected and was negative for February coming in at -2.3B versus the forecast of 5.1B and prior reading of 4.3B.

UK Public Sector Borrowing and Money Supply Posted: 18 Mar 2010 02:54 AM PDT Borrowing in the UK was less than expected but much more than the prior month and M4 money supply was the same. The details are as follows: Public Sector Net Borrowing - Survey: 14.6B   Actual: 12.4B   Prior: 0.0B Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m - Survey: 0.8%   Actual: 0.2%   Prior: 0.2%

Eurozone Current Account Posted: 18 Mar 2010 02:16 AM PDT The eurozone current account was much worse than expected at -8.1B versus 2.9B and the previous showing of 2.3B but the market was unaffected by the release.

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