Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY non-trending. At equilibrium level intraday
• GBPUSD rebounds as stocks open
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing.
• EURUSD breaks below intraday MA support.
• Personal Income and Spending come in as expected
• AUDUSD pushing above the 200 hour MA at 0.9148
• The March 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence
• UK Net Lending to Individuals
• Sterling trading above 100 hour M/A
• 3-29 Economic Calendar
• USD/CHF Breaks 38.2% Retracement
• Japanese Retail Sales y/y
• Euro higher on open, but trading lower
• RBA’s Stevens on the wires…

USDJPY non-trending. At equilibrium level intraday Posted: 29 Mar 2010 06:58 AM PDT The USDJPY has been in a narrow trading range and is converged with the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. This is the condition we call “Three’s A Crowd” and it is indicative of a non-trending market. Typically, the price will trend away from the level either to the upside or the downside.  The level comes in at the 92.54 level.  The last move down bottomed at the 92.41 level.  The 92.38 to 41 level has been a floor over the last couple of trading days.  This gives a positive bias if the price can move above the key moving averages. A confirmation of the upside would move through 92.61 and then the highs for the day.

GBPUSD rebounds as stocks open Posted: 29 Mar 2010 06:35 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved higher as the US stock market is opening.  The price, which dipped below the 100 hour MA at the 1.4970 earlier in the NY session, has now rebounded back above the intraday MA level (blue line in the chart above - currrently at 1.4974). The 1.5001 level is the next upside target. On the hourly chart the price is firmly in between the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.4926 and the 1.5046 level. These levels will be the extremes the market will likely buy against or sell against.  With the price in between the two, the 5 minute chart will provide the shorter term directional clues. The daily chart has bottom side resistance at the 1.5030 level.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing. Posted: 29 Mar 2010 06:22 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD breaks below intraday MA support. Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:53 AM PDT The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has been breached at the 1.3467 level, but so far the 200 bar MA is trying to hold support but the downside seems vulnerable.  The price has been able to stay above the 200 bar MA since movong above at 1.3319 on Friday.The current level comes in at 1.3454.  A move below would next target the 1.3437 level which is the old low from March 2nd.  Below that the 1.3415 level will be eyed by buyers. The market will expect the 100 bar MA to hold at the 1.3467 level.  A move above would likely give the intraday bulls reason to buy.

Personal Income and Spending come in as expected Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:46 AM PDT Personal Income 0.0% Personal Spending +0.3% (5th straight increase) The Savings Rate fell to 3.1% The lowest level since October 2008.

AUDUSD pushing above the 200 hour MA at 0.9148 Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:29 AM PDT The AUDUSD has been supported by comments from RBA Stevens and in early NY trade, the price has moved above the 200 hour MA at the 0.9148 level. The move today has also pushed the price back above the 100 day MA at the 0.9068 level much earlier in the day (see horizontal line in the hourly chart above).  The longer term target will NOW look toward the trendline on the daily chart at the 0.9231 level (CAHRT BELOW).  Before that level, however, look for profit taking selling against the 0.9194 level which has been a key “Remembered” price over the last few weeks (see chart above). On the downside, we will want to see momentum above the 0.9148 to confirm the break higher. If the price can not gain momentum and moves back below, the intraday support will come against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.9120 area.  The last low corrective moves also stalled at this area.

The March 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Mar 2010 04:45 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Posted: 29 Mar 2010 02:10 AM PDT Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in as expected at -17, also mirroring its prior reading. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3485.

UK Net Lending to Individuals Posted: 29 Mar 2010 02:08 AM PDT UK Net Lending to Individuals came in at 2.1B, stronger than the 1.8B expected and 1.9B prior reading. This figured pushed sterling back up to session highs at 1.5018. It has since come off, now trading at 1.4980.

Sterling trading above 100 hour M/A Posted: 28 Mar 2010 11:57 PM PDT Gbp/Usd is trading above its 100 hour M/A of 1.4931. Sterling has tried to break above the 100 hour M/A twice earlier in the session to no avail. If the pair can hold above this level it should make a move to 1.5000 If it gives back some gains and falls below 1.4931, a move down to 1.4870-80 is likely.

3-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Mar 2010 10:04 PM PDT

USD/CHF Breaks 38.2% Retracement Posted: 28 Mar 2010 06:58 PM PDT USD/CHF opened the session at 1.0587, almost 80 pips lower than its close on friday but closed that gap as the session high thus far has been 1.0680. The hourly chart shows the pair breaking through the 100 bar MAVG and the 38.2% line which comes in at 1.0679. This level was also tested on friday as resistance and twice last week as suppport.

Japanese Retail Sales y/y Posted: 28 Mar 2010 05:02 PM PDT The JPY showed little reaction to worse than expected yearly reatail sales numbers for February. The details are as follows: Large Retailer’s Sales - Survey: -5.5%   Actual: -5.6%   Prior: -5.6% Retail Trade (y/y) - Survey: 1.6%   Actual: 4.2   Prior: 2.6% Retail Trade (m/m) - Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 2.9%   Prior: 2.9%

Euro higher on open, but trading lower Posted: 28 Mar 2010 04:06 PM PDT The USD opened the session much weaker against all of the major currencies with the EUR/USD pair opening the session at 1.3473 after closing on Friday at 1.3414.  On the hourly chart, the open came in around the 38.2% retracement level from the downward move that started on March 17. A closer look on the 5 minute chart shows that it made an upward pass through the 1.3477 level, held for 30 minutes, and than retreated back below and is currently trading lower at 1.3447.

RBA’s Stevens on the wires… Posted: 28 Mar 2010 02:38 PM PDT Speaking in an interview today, RBA Governor Stevens made the following comments: It is not wise to keep rates too low. Imprudent to raise rates too rapidly. It may be unwise to “leverage up” on property. The AUD/USD, after a much higher opening this afternoon, is currently trading at .9050.

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