Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Comment from Canada’s Flaherty
• Canada Finance Minister on newswires
• USDJPY moves toward the 90.11 support area
• EURUSD keeps 1.3735 as the lid for now at least
• Forex Morning Report - March 16
• Gold moving sharply higher. Oil moves higher but USDCAD and AUDUSD don’t react.
• USDCAD falls on better economic data
• Housing Starts/Building Permits a touch better. Canada Manufacturing Sales soars.
• EURUSD watching 1.3691 support
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.16.2010
• GBPUSD surges higher in early NY trade. Holds resistance level from yesterday.
• The March 16th 2010 NY Opening Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone CPI
• German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
• UK DCLG HPI y/y

Comment from Canada’s Flaherty Posted: 16 Mar 2010 07:24 AM PDT Upward pressure on Canadian Currency not just commodities. He implies the economy is chugging along as well. The data this morning supports that notion as well. Manufacturing Sales rose by 2.4% vs 0.6% expected with the prior month also higher at +1.9%.

Canada Finance Minister on newswires Posted: 16 Mar 2010 07:16 AM PDT Upward pressure on Canadian Economy broader than just commodities. Not worried but watchful about Canada Housing market. He also said will continue with stimulus until the end of the next fiscal year. The fiscal year ends at the end of March.

USDJPY moves toward the 90.11 support area Posted: 16 Mar 2010 07:07 AM PDT The 100 day MA is at 90.11 today. THe midpoint of the move down from the Feb 19th high to the low comes in at the 90.13.  The 200 hour MA come in at 90.14. The area should find support.  A break below, however, may lead to some liquidation as the market has tested the 100 day MA on a number of occassions now and eventually, it tires and gives way.

EURUSD keeps 1.3735 as the lid for now at least Posted: 16 Mar 2010 06:38 AM PDT The 1.3735 level was the high from March 3rd.  Yesterday, the market stalled at this level before giving way and moving lower. Today, the price is back up testing this level.   The high reached in the last few minutes found sellers against the level and we have seen the price rotate back down.  The 1.3691 level will continue to be watched below where the 100 hour MA and the old highs and lows through March have increased the importance of the level.   1.3704, the high from March 8th is also a level to watch below.  The FOMC rate decision is later today. That and perhaps the London fixing at 12:00 noon today will cause some fireworks (there is some talk that EURGBP may be pressured and this may keep a lid on the EURUSD).  At the moment we are just range trading.

Forex Morning Report - March 16 Posted: 16 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Gold moving sharply higher. Oil moves higher but USDCAD and AUDUSD don’t react. Posted: 16 Mar 2010 06:18 AM PDT Gold just spiked above the 200 hour MA level at the 1119 .48 level. This is now the support area for the pair. Oil is also up on the day with the Oil futures ups 1.09 currently. The USCAD has not been able to fall through the 1.0153 low from last week on the rise in oil/gold . AUSUSD has also moved lower - falling below the 100 hour MA at the  0.9148. This is not what you would expect given the move up in commodities.   Watch 1.0253 support in the USDCAD and the 0.9148 resistance level in the AUDUSD. Support on the AUDUSD comes in at the 0.9112 level which is the 200 hour MA on the chart below (green line).

USDCAD falls on better economic data Posted: 16 Mar 2010 05:44 AM PDT The Manufacturing Sales rose by a stronger than expected 2.4% for the month of January. The gains were led by primary metals, plastics and petroleum sales. The USDCAD has come under pressure off the report as the price moves toward the low from Friday at the 1.0155 level.  A break of the lows will bring back into focus the parity level 1.0000 for the USDCAD.  The last time the USDCAD was at parity was in July 2008. On the topside the resistance now come in at the 1.0183 level and above that the 2009 low price of 1.0205 remains key topside resistance (1.0214 and 1.0223 were 2010 lows prior to the last move lower last week and should also be resistance levels today).  Interim support may come at 1.0116 and 1.0074 areas. During July 2008 when the USDCAD was last at these levels, the 1.0116 level was a resistance high while the 1.0074 area was resistance than a support level.  See the hourly chart from July 2008 below for these levels.

Housing Starts/Building Permits a touch better. Canada Manufacturing Sales soars. Posted: 16 Mar 2010 05:32 AM PDT Housing starts came in at 575K annualized pace while Building Permits were also a touch better at 612K vs 601K expectations Canada Manufacturing Sales soared 2.4% vs 0.6% expectations. USDCAD is falling on the news US Import Prices fall -0.3% the YoY comes down as well t0 -11.2% from 11.5% last month.  The next few months should show the YoY  trending back down as sharp gains from a year ago start to come out of the YoY equation.

EURUSD watching 1.3691 support Posted: 16 Mar 2010 05:30 AM PDT The 100 hour MA is at 1.3690. The 1.3691 level has been a support/resistance level to eye. Other support comes in at 1.3704.  Topside resistance at 1.3735.  Earlier today the 200 hour MA held support twice.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.16.2010 Posted: 16 Mar 2010 05:16 AM PDT Good Morning: Euro Zone finance ministers worked out a bailout program for Greece.  The program  is of emergency loans, should the austerity plan of lowering wages and raising taxes does not do enough to reign in the Greek budget deficit. Also- a report that showed German investor confidence dropped less than expected also helped ther Euro in overnight trading.  The FOMC will announce their rate decision at 2:15 PM (NY Time).  Interest rates are expected to be kept at record lows to sustain the economic recovery. World equity markets rose, as the EU comes up with a plan for Greece, and that the US will keep interest rates steady. US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$80.02                                         Gold:$1113.20 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR    REVISED 8:30A.M. MPORT PRICE INDEX MoM FEB. -0.20% 1.40% 8:30A.M. IMPORT PRICE INDEX YoY FEB. 11.30% 11.50% 8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS FEB. 570K 591K 8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS MoM FEB. -3.60% 2.80% 8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS  FEB. 610K 621K     622K 8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS MoM FEB. -1.90% -4.90% -4.70% 2:15P.M. FOMC RATE DECISION           HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD surges higher in early NY trade. Holds resistance level from yesterday. Posted: 16 Mar 2010 05:04 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved up sharply over the last few hours after falling earlier on concerns about the debt situation in the UK.  The price is up testing the lows prior to the fall yesterday That level comes in at the 1.5151 level. The price has stalled at the level it seems. Support comes in at the 1.5110 level which was the initial highs on the spike higher today. The 1.5085 is addtional support.  A move above the 1.5151 level would look toward the close from Friday at 1.5183.  Above that the 1.5206 high price for the week. A sharp fall in the EURGBP has helped contribute to the GBPUSD strength this morning as well.

The March 16th 2010 NY Opening Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 16 Mar 2010 04:34 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone CPI Posted: 16 Mar 2010 03:12 AM PDT Released at the same time as the German ZEW sentiment number was CPI data also out of the eurozone, whose reading was in line with its forecast. CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 0.9%   Prior: 0.9% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.8%   Actual: 0.8%   Prior: 0.9%

German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Posted: 16 Mar 2010 03:09 AM PDT The EUR traded higher across the board, and made a new high session high against the USD after the release of a  better than expected ZEW economic sentiment out of Germany.  Additionally, the ZEW economic sentiment number for the eurozone was lower at 37.9. The details are as follows: German ZEW Economic Sentiment - Survey: 43.5   Actual: 44.5   Prior: 45.1 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment - Survey: 40.1   Actual: 37.9    Prior: 40.2 Wolfgang Franz, the ZEW President has made the following comments: Export oriented industries will drive economic growth. German business activity has moved from intensive care to rehad. German economy is still far from a full recovery. The market has priced in all Greek problems. There might be some expectation of a bailout for Greece, but cannot say for sure. Inflation expectations are going down; point to a more moderate growth path.

UK DCLG HPI y/y Posted: 16 Mar 2010 02:38 AM PDT The market was not impressed by a much better than expected HPI number out of the UK as it had no reaction to the 6.2% reading for February; the forecast was 3.6% and the prior reading was 2.9%. The GBP is currently trading at 1.5057, up from 1.4977 two hours ago.

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