Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURJPY moves higher on USDJPY strength
• Fed Bernanke on newswires.
• The March 25th NY Morning Commentary is available for viewing
• USDJPY moves to new highs
• Intial Claims better. Continuing Claims worse
• EURUSD corrects overnight
• Online Trading Class Tuesday March 30th 4pm
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.25.2010
• The March 25th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• U.K. Retail Sales
• Merkel defends the euro
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply
• ECB’s Nowotny looks for devalued Euro
• Trichet speaks
• French Consumer Spending

EURJPY moves higher on USDJPY strength Posted: 25 Mar 2010 07:16 AM PDT The EURJPY has move higher over the last few days on the back of the overall selling in JPY. This is despite the sharp fall in the EURUSD over the same period.  The pair remains near the lows - but trades between the consolidation highs and lows on the daily chart.   On the hourly chart, the pair has extended above the 200 hour MA but has run into resistance against the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the Marth 17th high to the March 22nd low.  The high reached 123.52. The 61.8% came in at 1.2353. This keeps the pair under wraps for the time being and may solicit the longs selling against the level with stops on a move above.

Fed Bernanke on newswires. Posted: 25 Mar 2010 07:07 AM PDT FED WILL NEED TO BEGIN TIGHTENING SOMETIME ECONOMIC SLACK REMAINS  SUBDUED INFLATION WARRANT LOW RATES RESTORING MORE NORMAL BALANCE SHEET A LONG-TERM AIM He also says that the Fed has the tools to withdraw and reverse stimulus but at the moment the economy still needs accomodative policies. In the past the Fed has refrained from tightening until 250K jobs on average over 3 months materialized.   The expectation for NFP next week is around +185K to 200K.  The Unemployment rate remains high but with rates at 0.25% one must wonder if 1% is also “accomodative”.    Historical it is.

The March 25th NY Morning Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY moves to new highs Posted: 25 Mar 2010 06:25 AM PDT  The USDJPY has moved to new highs since January 11th. The price is currently trading at the highs for the day after correcting with the market in earlier action. The 93.12 is the next longer term target for the pair. This is the 50% retracement of the 2009 move down from the high to the low. On the downside, watch the 92.14 level for support. This was the high from February 19th.  The other key downside level is of course the 200 day MA level. This was broken yesterday and helped propel the market higher. The move above the 200 day moving average is a significant event. There is also some rumblings that the hedgers in the currency pair may look to unwind hedges above this key level.  This could lead to a more substantial move higher for the USDJPY in the longer term.

Intial Claims better. Continuing Claims worse Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:32 AM PDT The Initial Claims came in at 442K vs 450 expectations The Continuing Claims came in at 4648K vs 4562K expectations.

EURUSD corrects overnight Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:30 AM PDT The EURUSD has corrected overnight on Trichets emergency collaterol rules beyond 2010.  Nevertheless, the extension has had a limited impact to the EURUSD - at least in relation to the fall that has occurred over the last few days.  The pair remains down near the bottom of the weeks range.  The correction from the high for the week to the low for the week has remained below the 38.2% of the range. That level comes in at the 1.3392. The high today only extended to 1.3370. The close yesterday came in at 1.3314.  This level will be watched on the downside. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart will also be watched (see chart above)  Those levels come in at the 1.3332 and 1.3329 levels respectively.  A break of the level and the close from yesterday will look to extend the range lower with the 1.3283 low for  the day the next target.

Online Trading Class Tuesday March 30th 4pm Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:29 AM PDT Now is your chance to attend a live FXDD Online Trading class. Learn in real time in our free webinar, Tuesday, March 30 2010 at 4pm Register Here

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.25.2010 Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:28 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro rose ahead of today’s EU summit in Brussels. Infighting within the EU regarding an aid package for Greece, and concerns that Portugal may be the next EU country with major sovereign debt problems caused yesterday’s fall in the Euro.  German leader Merkel is opposing any direct aid-and is more in favor of a IMF-EU joint bailout for Greece.  Dr. Merkel is also concerned for her political future, as German regional elections are upcoming, and polls have shown that the German people are opposed to outright aid to Greece. U.K. Retail Sales rose better than expected.  Even though revisions were lower than originally reported, the data does show that business activity is picking up.  The U.K. economy is still slow to react, but it is a good sign that they are finally joining the rest world with economic growth peaking through the cracks. Equity markets are mostly higher-and US Futures are also higher this morning. Oil:$81.07                                                       Gold:$1093.90 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 20-Mar 450K 457K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 13-Mar 4560K 4579K 9:00A.M. RPX COMPOSITE 28dy YoY  JAN. -1.10% 9:00A.M. RPX COMPOSITE 28dy INDEX JAN.21 193.91% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The March 25th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Mar 2010 04:50 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.Video Pending

U.K. Retail Sales Posted: 25 Mar 2010 02:38 AM PDT U.K. Retail Sales m/m came in at 2.1%, stronger than the 0.8% expected. Gbp/Usd catapulted above 1.5000 on news and has since pulled back to 1.4970.

Merkel defends the euro Posted: 25 Mar 2010 02:24 AM PDT German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the euro is more stable than the deutschemark. The euro’s stabilty has helped the EU through this crisis and undermining the eurozone rules will put Europe at risk.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Posted: 25 Mar 2010 02:04 AM PDT Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y came in at -0.4%, weaker than the -0.1% expected and the prior reading of 0.1%. Eur/Usd moving towards session high at time of post at 1.3345.

ECB’s Nowotny looks for devalued Euro Posted: 25 Mar 2010 01:44 AM PDT  European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny says euro depreciation is actually positive for the whole economy and euro overvaluation hurts export companies. He sees the euro as remaining important internationally. Greece has taken steps to solve its own problems, according to Novotny, and he goes on to say that the euro will remain a hard currncy and it is absurd to exclude any country from the Eurozone.

Trichet speaks Posted: 25 Mar 2010 01:36 AM PDT Here are some comments made by ECB Pesident Jean- Claude Trichet; * ECB non-standard measures have served well * ECB doesn’t want banks to become dependent on it * Euro-denominated CDS market is robust * Current interest rates are appropriate * Hedging instruments shouldn’t be used to speculate * Economic recovery is in progress, crisi not over * Can’t rule out setbacks during recovery * ECB intends to keep current collateral rules in 2011

French Consumer Spending Posted: 25 Mar 2010 01:07 AM PDT French Consumer Spending m/m came in at -1.2%, weaker than the 0.4% expected. This negative data coupled with rumblings that E.U. members are undecided on Greece aid helped knock Eur/Usd off recent high of 1.3345 to trade down to 1.3315. Presently the pair trades at 1.3325.

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