Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF moves toward support today and holds
• Forex Morning Report - March 3
• EURUSD breaking higher above 1.3654 resistance level.
• USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA on the topside.
• GBPUSD moves toward 100 hour MA resistance
• ADP comes in at -20K. As expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.3.2010
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday FXDD Online Trading Class
• EURUSD can’t develop any momentum above 1.3654
• Germany says will not offer aid to Greece
• The March 03 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing.
• EUR Retail Sales m/m
• UK Services PMI
• Euro Catches Bid From Greece News
• Euro-zone Final Services PMI

USDCHF moves toward support today and holds Posted: 03 Mar 2010 07:01 AM PST The USDCHF fell again yesterday falling to the low area  from last week and bounced higher (low reached 1.0699 - last week low reached 1.0694) .  The 1.0715 level is other support on lows from the last few weeks of consolidative trading.  The 1.0742 level is a third level to eye this morning.  The move below the 100 and 200 hour MA has switched the bias to the downside but the market continues to be bound by support levels.     The USDCHF has been correcting off low levels since November as the dollar has gotten better bid. The price has support off the daily chart at the 1.0699 level which is the 38.2% retracement level of the move down from the 2009 high to low trading range.  The low came in at 1.0701 today.   A break of the this level should lead to further downward pressure. with a move toward 1.0646 the next target level (low from Feb 16th - see chart above).

Forex Morning Report - March 3 Posted: 03 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD breaking higher above 1.3654 resistance level. Posted: 03 Mar 2010 05:57 AM PST The EURUSD has broken above th 1.3654 level and extends higher. The next target is 1.3691.  This is the trendline resistance and the high from February 23rd so it represents a key technical level to get through for the bulls.  Support now at 1.3650.

USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA on the topside. Posted: 03 Mar 2010 05:55 AM PST The USDJPY reached a new low overnight for the latest move lower at the 88.46 level. The price has retraced to a high at the 88.98 but is now back down at the prior move low for this consolidation period at the 88.72 level.  The market is at a crossroad.  Does it move back above the decline 100 hour MA, or continue the trend down. The bias remains to the downside for the pair below the 100 hour MA.  Look for sellers on rallies toward the level.  A move back below the  88.72 level could solicit some selling pressure this morning.  On the downside, the next target comes in at 88.23. This is the 61.8% correction level of the move up from the November 2009 low to the January 2010 high.  Below that level a move toward 87.50 cannot be ruled out.

GBPUSD moves toward 100 hour MA resistance Posted: 03 Mar 2010 05:39 AM PST The GBPUSD is moving toward the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5094 level (high today reached 1.5074)  on the back of better than expected PMI Services (to 58.4 from 55.0). Looking at the chart above, the price has closed below the 100 hour MA for all but 1 hourly bar since February 17th. During that time the price has trended down on the back of UK debt worries and recently, the minority government dilemma.  During that time , the price has  moved from 1.5690 to the recent low of 1.4782. I would expect sellers on rallies today, against the key moving average level at least initially as tradersuse the resistance level as a low risk profit taking level.  On a break above, look for momentum buyers, with the pair targeting 1.5176 which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 17th high of 1.5814 to the low at 1.4782. Above that level is the 200 hour SMA at the  1.5269 level (green line in the chart above). On the downside, for today look for initial support against the 1.5019/25 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (blue and green lines in chart below).  Earlier today, the price held the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart below) and then the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below).  They are now looking to converge which should provide a level to lean against on corrections down today.   As a result, if the price can remain above these levels on correction, the longs should remain confident and the bias would remain to the upside with room for further upside gains.

ADP comes in at -20K. As expected Posted: 03 Mar 2010 05:19 AM PST The NFP on Friday is expected to fall by -55 k on Friday.  The NFP is expected to be influenced by the weather. The ADP is not effected by weather in that if a worker does not show up for work because of weather, they still are employed. IF a worker in the BLS survey is out of work due to weather, they are unemployed/not working. It sounds crazy but that is what the reports are saying.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.3.2010 Posted: 03 Mar 2010 05:13 AM PST Good Morning: Greek Prime Minister Papandreous announced an additional $6.6 billion of deficit cuts for the country.  As EU members contemplate a bailout package for Greece, the Greek government must prove to it’s allies that they can control  their deficit problems.  Public workers have various protests planned to demonstrate against any reduction in benefits. The GBP rose as UK consumer confidence jumped to a 2 year high.  The Euro picked up overnight as Greece announced their deficit reduction plan. Asian equity markets rose, and European markets are lower-as are US Futures. Oil:$80.02                                    Gold:$1139.20 Today’s data: 7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY FEB. -70.40% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE FEB. -10K -22K 10:00A.M. ISM NON MANF.COMPOSITE FEB. 51.O 5O.5 2:00P.M. FEDS BEIGE BOOK         HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Rebroadcast of Tuesday FXDD Online Trading Class Posted: 03 Mar 2010 05:01 AM PST Rebroadcast of Tuesday March 2nd 2010 FXDD Online Trading Class- Click Here to Watch

EURUSD can’t develop any momentum above 1.3654 Posted: 03 Mar 2010 04:54 AM PST The EURUSD has had resistance at the 1.3654 coming into the trading day and continues to have resistance at the 1.3654 level. The  high did extend to a intraday high of 1.3670 but it was reversed.  The price is now back down on the comment that Germany would not provide debt aid to Greece despite the austerity measures announced today.  Look for resistance at the 1.3627/32 now.  This is where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (green and blue line below).

Germany says will not offer aid to Greece Posted: 03 Mar 2010 04:42 AM PST Germanys Merkel and Greece PM Papandreuou are meeting on Friday and the early call is no aid from Germany (as per newswires).  This is sending the EURUSD back down. Also out, is the Challenger Job Cuts.  They showed a 77.4% decline from a year ago.  The total job cuts announced totaled 42,090 which is below the 71,482 last month and the lowest level since July 2006.

The March 03 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing. Posted: 03 Mar 2010 04:13 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EUR Retail Sales m/m Posted: 03 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PST January retail sales for the euro-zone came in as expected at -0.3%; still worse than the prior reading of 0.1%. The euro, which was bid prior to the number, could have possibly been stunted by this negative reading.

UK Services PMI Posted: 03 Mar 2010 01:33 AM PST The GBP made substantial gains across the board, gaining nearly 50 pips against the USD and JPY on the back of the UK Services PMI which rose to 58.4 from 54.5; surpassing its forecast of 55.0.

Euro Catches Bid From Greece News Posted: 03 Mar 2010 01:11 AM PST The EUR has mad considerable gains against all of the majors after news that Greek austerity measures have reached 4.8 billion euros. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3636.

Euro-zone Final Services PMI Posted: 03 Mar 2010 01:02 AM PST Final services PMI was slightly worse than the survey and prior reading of 52.0, coming in at 51.8 for February.

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