Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD eyes 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of week range
USDCHF moves below floor and tests 100 hour MA
EURUSD squeezes back higher on Portugal reaffirmation
S&P affirms Portugal at A+/A-1
AUDUSD tests 50% retracement support at 0.9025
The March 26th NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
White House announces Homeowner assistance program
USDJPY moves back toward closing level
GDP comes out weaker at 5.6% vs 5.9%. EURUSD dips to 100 bar MA (5 min)
AUDUSD watching 100 day MA today
GDP expected to show 5.9% gain
EURUSD extends higher in NY but approaches resistance
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
UK Revised Business Investment
Eurozone nations reach bailout agreement for Greece

EURUSD eyes 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of week range

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:17 AM PDT

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100 hour MA comes in at 1.3415 and the 50% retracement at 1.3418. The first move up on the back of Portugal news and also comments from Greek PM sent the price up to the 1.3411, but sellers entered against the upside resistance levels. Level remains a key resistance level with a break targeting 1.3454. On the downside support at 1.3382 and 1.3365.

USDCHF moves below floor and tests 100 hour MA

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:08 AM PDT

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The floor at 1.0670 area was broken and the pair has moved down to test the next target at the 100 hour MA. The level comes in at 1.0653. A break below will look to 1.0628. The topside resistance now comes in against 1.0671 to 1.0677 area.

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EURUSD squeezes back higher on Portugal reaffirmation

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:57 AM PDT

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The price has moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3366 level.

Meanwhile Michigan came in at 73.6 vs 73.0 expectation.

S&P affirms Portugal at A+/A-1

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:52 AM PDT

…”on consolidation plan. The outlook remains negative.”

This is giving the EURUSD a bit of a bid.

AUDUSD tests 50% retracement support at 0.9025

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:49 AM PDT

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The AUDUSD fell below the 100 day MA at the 0.9067 level. The price has moved down and tests the 50% retracement of the last move down at the 0.9025. This is a target on the bearish highway. A move below should next look towart the -8972 level which is the 61.8% of the move up from the February 25th low.

The March 26th NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:32 AM PDT

Click here to view the embedded video.

White House announces Homeowner assistance program

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:03 AM PDT

Similar to BofA initiative aid would be provided to homeowners underwater with 115% of Loan to value ratio being the maximum.

Goal is to help 4 MM homeowners and prevent further foreclosures due to homeowners walking away. The funds would come from TARP funds

USDJPY moves back toward closing level

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:44 AM PDT

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The USDJPY closed at 92.72 yesterday and moved up to 92.81 just prior to the GDP report. The weaker data pushed the price back down below the closing level and we will looking to see sellers against the level. A move back above may be disappointing for those looking for a correction in the pair. ON the downside, the market is consolidating the gains from the weeks move higher. As such the 100 and 200 bar MA are converged at the 92.55 level and the price has moved above and below the level on a number of occasions today. We will be looking for downside confirmation via a break of these moving averages. If the price can not get through, a move through the close is most likely as the bullish week comes to an end.

On the topside a move above the close, should solicit a move toward the high from yesterday at 92.94. Another key upside target comes in at the 93.12 level where the 50% retracement of the 2009 high to low range is located.

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GDP comes out weaker at 5.6% vs 5.9%. EURUSD dips to 100 bar MA (5 min)

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:34 AM PDT

The GDP was weaker at 5.6% for the 4Q. Consumption comes in at 1.6%. The Core PCE comes in at 1.8% vs 1.6%. The USDJPY has come off a bit on the weaker data, and the EURUSD came down to test 100 bar MA support at 1.3362 on the 5 minute chart but has bounced a touch. Still watching the level.

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AUDUSD watching 100 day MA today

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT

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The AUDUSD is testing the 100 day MA at the 0.9068 level. A close below this level will be bearish for the pair and should see further downside selling for the pair going forward.

GDP expected to show 5.9% gain

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:26 AM PDT

The US GDP for 4Q is expected to show a gain of 5.9%. The same as the prior revision. Personal Consumption is expected to come at 1.7%. The Core PCE is expected to come at 1.6&. Later today we have the U of Michigan at 73.0 vs 72.5. This is the final revision for the March confidence.

Although GDP is obiously important, it is April and the market is more interested in Q1 and Q2 growth.

EURUSD extends higher in NY but approaches resistance

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:14 AM PDT

The EURUSD has corrected higher in early NY trade, but upside resistance at the 1.3418 is approaching. The level corresponds with the 100 hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the move down from the weeks high price to the low (1.3567 to 1.3267). The high reached on the last leg came in at the 1.3407. On the downside, we will be looking for support against the 1.3372 which is the backside support from the top channel trendline.

Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart the price has been trending higher using the 100 bar MA as support. That moving average comes in at the 1.3360. This level also corresponds with a intraday floor level. Below the 1.3349 level is the 38.2% of the move up from the lows yesterday.

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