Friday, March 12, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

AUD/USD looking like a double top forming at 0.9193

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 06:57 AM PST

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The AUD/USD appears to be having challenges breaking above the 0.9193 as a double top forms. The pair has been in a bullish trend since late February, 2010. The pair has only been below the 200 Hour moving average once in that entire time so the bias remains bullish for the time being, however, the pair may move to test the 100 Hour moving average in the near term (blue line 0.9134). Below that the 200 Hour MA (green line) comes into focus at 0.9087.

Key resistance levels on the top side are seen at 0.9250, 0.9326 and then at the 2009 high of 0.9405.

Forex Morning Report - March 12

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PST

Canada’s jobless rate drops to 8.2%

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 06:15 AM PST

Canada’s recovering economy continued to churn out new jobs last month, adding 60,000 full-time positions — mostly in the public sector. The February unemployment rate of 8.2 per cent was the lowest reported by Statistics Canada since April, 2009, which was before the country began to recover from a major recession.

Looking at the USD/CAD the pair has moved lower.

US Retail Sales Rise

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 05:50 AM PST

Total US retail sales rose 0.3 percent, as released by the Commerce Department, as consumers bought an array of goods from necessities to luxury items. Sales for January were, however, revised down to only a gain of 0.1 percent from the previously reported 0.5 percent increase.

EUR/USD Moves higher into major resistance

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 05:41 AM PST

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The EUR/USD moveed higher after breaking above the trendline near 1.3680, and climbed into major resistance at 1.3799. This is the 50% retracement level from the move seen on the daily chart. The pair is likely to have challenges with getting above this key level.

march12_eur1-22

Looking at the daily chart, the level becomes clear. The longer term resistance level is seen at 1.3799, which is the 50% retracement level from the move up on March 3, 2010 to the high in November 2009. This will be a critical level for traders following the EUR/USD.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.12.2010

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 05:25 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-trading-8-150x200Good Morning:

The USD lost ground overnight as speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates low reduced demand for USD dominated assets.  In other news, Janet Yellen will most probably be selected as vice chairman of the Fed.  Ms Yellen is currently President of the San Francisco Fed, and has been a staunch supporter of lower interest rates to combat the global recession.

EU leaders will meet next week to discuss the potential need to issue bonds or give outright loans to Greece, as the country works on an auterity program aimed at cutting it’s staggering deficit.

Equity markets rose around the globe and US futures are also higher this morning.  Banks and commodity companies helped keep equity indexes in positive territory.
Commodities in general rose across the board, with gold leading the charge.

Oil:$82.72                              Gold:$1117.50

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. ADVANCE RETAIL SALES  FEB. -0.20% 0.50%
8:30A.M. RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS FEB. 0.00% 0.60%
8:30A.M. RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS & GAS FEB. 0.30% 0.60%
9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE  MARCH 74.O 73.6O
10:00A.M. BUSINESS INVENTORIES JAN. 0.20% -0.20%

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

GBP/USD Breaks above formation - Pushed Higher

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 05:15 AM PST

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Overnight and into the start of the US session, the GBP/USD has broken the top side of the pennant formation (1.5050.) The pair is now holding above the 100 Hour & 200 Hour MA’s, against the the 38.2% retracement level near 1.5176. The Fibonacci is calculated from the high on Feb 17th, 2010 (1.5814) to the low on March 1, 2010 (1.4782.)

The pair will need to break thru the 38.2% level to signal a move higher, with a next target level of 1.5298, which is the 50% retracement level of the same move. If the pair fails to move higher and the bias returns to the downside, the pair will have the 100 Hour MA at 1.5030 as a next level of support, below that 1.4888 will be the next key level.

Rebroadcast of March 11 2010 Online Training

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 04:30 AM PST

training

Watch the video rebroadcast of the Thursday March 11th FXDD Online Training - Click here to watch

Class Summary: Shawn Powell teaches a class on identifying entry and exit points in conjunction with support and resistance levels using Fibonacci and trend lines.

UK’s Dale on the wires

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 03:21 AM PST

Bank of England’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale had this to say on the current situation in the UK;

*Pause does not necessarily mean loosening at an end

*BoE can withdraw stimulus at any time, in any order

*BoE ready to make more purchases if needed

This commentary seems bearish for the pound and market did act accordingly knocking Gbp/Usd down 30 points to 1.5135. The pair has since regained its losses and currently trades at 1.5163.

Sterling close to retracing 3/8-3/10 selloff

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 03:06 AM PST

Gbp/Usd broke above the 61.8 Fibo (1.5070) earlier in the session and thus far has not looked back. The pair found some resistance at the 1.5165-70 level which is an historical level of hourly highs. This is just in front of March 8th high of 1.5194. A break above this level should bring the pair up to 1.5230-35. If the pair reverses course 1.5115-20 should show some support.

vincent_fx00016

Eurozone Industrial Production

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PST

Eurozone Industrial Production m/m came in at 1.7%, stronger than the 0.8% forecasted and -1.7% prior reading.

Eur/Usd has been bid all session and has recently made new high at 1.3763. The pair has given back 10 points, but still looks bullish.

EU’s Juncker comments on European debt crisis

Posted: 12 Mar 2010 01:04 AM PST

Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker has made the following comments in interview in Bonn;

*Eurozone needs instruments to prevent new crisi

*EMF is no instrument to solve Greek crisis, but would be instrument for broad based crisis

*EMF has to comply with stability and growth pact, they would not breach no bailout clause

*EMF does not mean to socialize risk

*EMF implementation will take time, at least months

Seemingly negative comments regarding the Eurozone. Eur/Usd is trading just off fresh high of 1.3727. These comments may have halted the pairs progress.

German Wholesale Price Index

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 11:15 PM PST

German WPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.6% expected and the prior reading of 1.3%.

It would appear the weak WPI out of Germany had an effect on Eur/Usd trading. The pair was at its session high of 1.3707 when news broke and has since traded down about 20 point to 1.3687.

3-12 Economic Calendar

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 08:23 PM PST

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BOJ on the Wire Pushing Yen Lower

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 06:31 PM PST

The following comments from the BOJ against the Yen have helped push the USD/JPY pair higher even as the USD remains under some pressure. In addition to comments from Morgan Stanley earlier that ‘Japan is increasingly likely to sell Yen and that Yen could weaken to 109 per dollar at year-end.’

  • Hatoyama says markets should set exchange rates.
  • Hayatoma says to take appropriate measures on the Yen if needed.
  • Hayatoma says need to take proper action on stronger Yen.
  • Shirakawa says BOJ’s accommodative policy is affecting the Yen.
  • Shirakawa says liquidity injection has limited impact on prices.
  • Shirakawa says shouldn’t be influenced by short-term prices.
  • Kan says up to BOK to decide specific policy measures, expects BOJ to take appropriate policy measures.
  • Kan says intervention always option if moves are abrupt.
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