Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• German Foreign Minister continues the bickering
• USDJPY falls below 100 day MA at 90.06
• Forex Morning Report - March 22
• EURUSD heads below 1.3500 as Greek comments weigh.
• USDCHF moving above the 200 hour MA
• FXDD Webinar Tuesday March 23rd 4pm
• GBPUSD having trouble moving from the lows. Budget on Wednesday
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.22.2010
• Fed’s Bullard on the newswires
• EURUSD testing support as NY day gets underway
• March 22 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Usd/Chf bounces off 100 hour M/A, now tests 200 hour
• EUR/USD breaks trend, but can’t hold….
• Usd/Chf hovering above 100 hour M/A after moderate selling
• Gbp/Usd threatens move below daily trendline

German Foreign Minister continues the bickering Posted: 22 Mar 2010 07:16 AM PDT Says does not want to put money on table for Greece as would take pressure off of them. Also, they must look out for its taxpayers. The bickering continues.

USDJPY falls below 100 day MA at 90.06 Posted: 22 Mar 2010 06:31 AM PDT The USDJPY could not extend above the 90.72 resistance area (yellow line in the chart above) with any conviction, coupled with health care stock selling and Eurozone bickering has the market selling the risky currency pairs. This has sent the USDJPY sharply lower.  In the process, the 100 and 200 hour MAs were broken (at 90.40 area) and now the price has also moved back below the 100 day MA at 90.06.  A close below this level today will continue the bearish bias for that pair and target support at the 89.75 and 89.59 level (50% of the March low to high range). Look for sellers against the 100 day MA at the 90.06 now. The market has only one close below this moving average in the last 12 trading days.  The price has dipped below the line (blue line in the chart below) but each time the price has rebounded. Will today be the day, the market gives up and the downside is explored again?

Forex Morning Report - March 22 Posted: 22 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD heads below 1.3500 as Greek comments weigh. Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:54 AM PDT The EURUSD has headed back below the 1.3500 level. The Greek Deputy PM Theodoros Pangalos, was on the wires saying that the Germans want to the EURO to weaken to boost exports. He also added that Germany allows its banks to speculate against Greece. This internal bickering is not what the EU needs as it deals with the crisis.  Germany’s Merkel continues to chatter about Greek getting its own debt in order. Next support at 1.3460 for the pair. On the topside 1.3500 and then 1.3513 is now the resistance.

USDCHF moving above the 200 hour MA Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:48 AM PDT The USDCHF moved above the 200 hour MA at the 1.0617 level.  We need to see the momentum to the upside now for the pair to help confirm the directional move. The move above the key moving average is the first move since March 10th.  The SNB reiterated this morning that it will continue to act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the CHF.   The next topside target is 1.0655 where the 50% retracement comes in at 1.0655.  On the downside, watch the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0608/13 level.

FXDD Webinar Tuesday March 23rd 4pm Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:48 AM PDT FXDD Webinar Tuesday March 23rd 4pm - Register Here

GBPUSD having trouble moving from the lows. Budget on Wednesday Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:27 AM PDT The UK Budget on Wednesday will be a tough one for Chancellor of Exchequer AllistaIr Darling. Balancing stimulus with debt will be a difficult act. Add to it the party loyalty implications as the UK moves toward  a tough election battle.  Last week BOE Sentance warned of a possible double dip   What to do?  As a result, the pair may continue to remain contained near the bottom of the range.  From a technical perspective, the price is trying to move and maintain the price above the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4986 level. The price trended below this moving average level since last Thursday when it last broke at the . Today the price has been able to extend briefly above on a few occassions but the moves are unimpressive and the price has dipped back below at the 1.5295 area. The pair has been consolidating at the lows with little in the way of upside momentum.  The high today reached 1.5026 in the first hour of trading. The close from Friday came in at 1.5015.  These levels will be eyed on the topside as resistance levels.  A break above each will be needed to spur on additional short covering. The upside targets on a break would look toward the 1.5082 level which is the 38.2% of the move down from March 18th (see chart above).  On the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.4969 and will be eyed as support for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.22.2010 Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:14 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD was stronger overnight as continued concerns that growing government debts will put a damper on economic recovery moved investors to the safety of the greenback.  The USD was also helped by German Chancellor Merkel who told investors that they should not expect the EU summit scheduled for later this week to agree on any aid package for Greece.   If no agreement is reached the euro will continue to be under pressure. On another note, India raised  interest rates last week-as a way to keep inflation in check.  In the past few months Austrailia and Malaysia also raised their interest rates, as their economies show signs of recovery. China imposed higher reserve requirements for their banks, as their economy grows at record levels. Equity markets were mostly lower, and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Japan was closed for Equinox Day. Oil:$79.32                                           Gold:$1102.40       TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT. ACTIVITY INDEX FEB. 0.O2 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Fed’s Bullard on the newswires Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:06 AM PDT Says “Extended Period” language puts the Fed in a box. I would have to agree with that but it is the direction they chose in the past.  He also comments that it is not a good idea to reveal who is borrowing from the Discount Window.

EURUSD testing support as NY day gets underway Posted: 22 Mar 2010 04:53 AM PDT The market is testing support level in early NY trade. The 1.3513 level  was a key level the market used as support earlier in the month when the EURUSD was last at this level.  The market used the level as support, fell through then rallied from the level.  Over the last few days the price has been a level the market has gravitated toward.  Each time the price has dipped the market rallied back above.   Watch this level this morning. If the support is going to hold the price needs to get back above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3517 and 1.3520 level respectively (blue and green lines in the chart below). Otherwise an move back toward the lows is more likely.

March 22 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 22 Mar 2010 04:22 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Usd/Chf bounces off 100 hour M/A, now tests 200 hour Posted: 22 Mar 2010 04:13 AM PDT As noted in an earlier post Usd/Chf met some good support around 1.0575-80 level with the 100 hour M/A sitting at 1.0573. It has since rebounded and now threatens to break above the 200 hour M/A at 1.0617. This area should be a good level of resistance in a session that has seen a tight range. If the pair hold a move back to 1.0600 is likely. A break above should bring Usd/Chf at least to 1.0635.

EUR/USD breaks trend, but can’t hold…. Posted: 22 Mar 2010 03:20 AM PDT The EUR/USD broke through a trendline on the 15 minute chart when it made it’s session high of 1.3546, but it could not establish itself above the line. The trendline, which started on March 17 is now parallel with the 100 bar moving average at 1.3532.  Additionally, there is further resistance at this level with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement on the hourly chart also coming in at 1.3532.

Usd/Chf hovering above 100 hour M/A after moderate selling Posted: 22 Mar 2010 02:15 AM PDT Usd/Chf is currently jsut above its 100 hour M/A of 1.0573. the pair has traded down from its 200 hour M/A of 1.0618 within the last couple of hours of trading. This area should be a level of suport for Usd/Chf with the 61.8% fibo adding some support at 1.0581. If it holds look for a move back above 1.0600. A further decline and break of 1.0573 should bring the pair down to 1.0540-50 level. I suspect the support should hold in the short term.

Gbp/Usd threatens move below daily trendline Posted: 21 Mar 2010 09:31 PM PDT Within the last hour Gbp/Usd has traded below a trendline connecting three daily lows dating back to March 1st. Though it is below the trendline for today’s trading (1.4985) a true confirmation of Gbp bearishness would occur with a close below this level. In any event keep a close eye on this area as it may determine the direction for the pair for future days. A true break below could send Gbp/Usd down to 1.4500-20 level which signifies lows dating back to April 2009.

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