Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCAD moves above the old trendline and eyes the key resistance area at 1.0207/23
• Forex Morning Report - March 15
• January TIC Flows less then expected
• EURCHF continues move lower as market tests SNB
• Empire Manufacturing comes in as expected
• Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 AM
• EURUSD watching the 1.3735 level above. Below key support at 1.3691
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.15.2010
• GBPUSD rebounds to resistance in early NY trade
• The March 15th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone Employment Change
• Gbp/Usd approaching full retracement of Friday’s move
• Swiss PPI
• Sterling breaking to downside

USDCAD moves above the old trendline and eyes the key resistance area at 1.0207/23 Posted: 15 Mar 2010 06:43 AM PDT The USDCAD is moving above the old trendline support at the 1.0192 level as the market corrects from the new lows established on Friday. There is key upside resistance at the 1.0207-23 level which were the lows off the daily chart. This becomes key upside support now for the pair. The 1.0192 will be watched as support now. If the price can find support above this level there may be some upward corrective momentum for the pair.  The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above ) is also resistance at the 1.0237 level for the pair.

Forex Morning Report - March 15 Posted: 15 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

January TIC Flows less then expected Posted: 15 Mar 2010 06:02 AM PDT The Net TIC flows came in at $19.1 Billion which is less than the expected $47.5 billion

EURCHF continues move lower as market tests SNB Posted: 15 Mar 2010 05:56 AM PDT The Swiss National Bank (SNB) said last week that they would not tolerate excessive strength in the SwissFranc. That opened the window for traders to probe what excessive means. The level used to be 1.4630.  Now the pair is down to 1.4527. This is the lowest level since October 2008.  The daily lows in October reached 1.4409, 1.4319 and 1.4209 . I would doubt the SNB would look to have the currency strengthen to these levels - risking a sharp fall on breaks of the levels.  What level is ripe for some intervention?  We don’t know, but if the pair continues to fall watch the 1.4483 level  This was the low off the hourly bar back from October 2008 period and a logical technical level that may be a target support level. On the topside, the 1.4630 area becomes an upside ceiling now barring a fundamental shift in the CHF.

Empire Manufacturing comes in as expected Posted: 15 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT Index comes in at 22.86 slightly higher than the 22.00 expected but down from 24.91 last month. New Orders were up smartly as was employment.  The report has had limited impact (USDJPY up a bit) as NY activity  is quiet after a stormy weekend (weather wise). Prices Paid           29.63  vs 31.94 Prices Received        8.64   vs 4.17 New Orders            25.43  vs  8.78 Shipments             25.58  vs 15.14 Delivery Time          2.47 vs  -6.94 Inventories            4.94   vs 0.00 Unfilled Orders        4.94  vs  2.78 Number of Employees   12.35  vs 5.56

Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 AM Posted: 15 Mar 2010 05:27 AM PDT Expect 22.00 vs 24.91 last month.

EURUSD watching the 1.3735 level above. Below key support at 1.3691 Posted: 15 Mar 2010 05:20 AM PDT The high from March 3rd comes in at 1.3735 this level was the high from March 3rd and should provide upside resistance for today. On the downside the 1.3704 level which was the March 8th high but below that level is more important support at the 1.3691 level.  This level has been a key support/resistance level in the month of March.  Back on February 23rd the high spiked higher and stopped at 1.3691 as well.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.15.2010 Posted: 15 Mar 2010 05:19 AM PDT Good Morning: GBP was the main driver in overnight markets as Moody’s warned the UK (and US) of losing their AAA rating, The UK’s political problems and poor UK housing data also contributed to sterling’s woes. In the Euro Zone, no political decisions have been made  regarding an aid package for Greece.  Greece has not asked for any direct aid as of yet.  The Greek government insists it will work out it’s debt problems themselves.   EU ministers begin a 2 day meeting in Brussels today to discuss the Greek debt issue. World equity markets were mostly lower-and US futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Commodities were mostly lower-lead by metals.  Concerns that China and India may restrict economic growth to curb inflation, lead to the drop. Oil:$80.79                                                  Gold:$1106.20 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. EMPIRE MANUFACTURING MARCH 20.OO 24.9I 9:00A.M. NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS JAN. $63.3B 9:00A.M. TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS JAN. $60.9B 9:15A.M. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FEB. 0.00% 0.90% 9:15A.M. CAPACITY UTILIZATION FEB. 72.60% 72.60% 1:00P.M. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX MARCH 17.O 17.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD rebounds to resistance in early NY trade Posted: 15 Mar 2010 04:56 AM PDT The GBPUSD rebounded to resistance in early NY trade as the pound comes under pressure from the bearish comments from BOE Barker, debt concerns and Moody concerns.  The resistance for the pair comes in at the the 1.5054 level where the 200 hour MA is found (green line in the chart above). The high reached 1.5060 on the early NY corrective move, but the price has quickly moved back lower. A move back below the 1.5034 (blue line in the chart above) which is the 100 hour MA should pave the way for continued downward pressure for the pair.  The low for the day at 1.5018 and the midpoint of the move up from the Feb 26th low to the high reached on Friday at 1.4999 are other support areas for todays trade. On the topside, if momentum above the 1.5054 can be established a move toward the 38.2% of the days range cannot be ruled out. That level comes in at the 1.5090 level.

The March 15th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 15 Mar 2010 04:28 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone Employment Change Posted: 15 Mar 2010 03:03 AM PDT The eurozone m/m employment change was -0.3% for February; worse than the survey of 0.2% and prior reading of 0.3%. The market had no reaction.

Gbp/Usd approaching full retracement of Friday’s move Posted: 15 Mar 2010 02:29 AM PDT As stated in an earlier post, Gbp/Usd has been poised to retrace Friday’s move from 1.5050 to 1.5217. The pair is not far off from a full retracement , although strong support should lie at the 1.5050-55 level, as this signifies the 200 hour M/A (1.5054)  and 100% retracement (1.5050).  not far below lies the 100 hour M/A at 1.5033. It is unlikely this first time down the pair is going to break clean through. A brief correction to 1.5100-10 is possible, though the overall outlook still appears bearish.

Swiss PPI Posted: 15 Mar 2010 01:19 AM PDT Swiss PPI for February came in at -0.3%; worse than it’s forecast of 0.2% and prior reading of 0.3%. The market showed a very limited reaction to the release.

Sterling breaking to downside Posted: 15 Mar 2010 01:19 AM PDT Since Friday’s move up from 1.5050 to 1.5217 Gbp/Usd has been trading sideways. It appears the pair might be ready to retrace this move. It has recently broke below the 38.2% Fibo at 1.5153 and is currently flirting with the 50% Fibo at 1.5133. The 61.8% Fibo should be a more formidable obstacle at 1.5114. If the pair can gain enough momentum and break below , it will then have 1.5050 in its sights. If it holds a move back to 1.5150-55 is likely.

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