Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Bernanke prepared text on Capitol Hill
• Bernanke Testimony at 10:00 AM
• Forex QUICK: AUDUSD holds 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart
• Forex Morning Report - April 14
• Forex QUICK: EURUSD looks to test intraday resistance at 1.3633
• USDJPY moves above 200 hour MA but comes back off
• Retail Sales better than expected. CPI as expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.14.2010
• CPI and Retail Sales due at 8:30
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Webinar
• The April 14th NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Moody’s: Greek rating cut possible in 12-18 months
• Eurozone Industrial Production
• Greece package may be larger than originally announced
• BOJ’s Shirakawa Speaks…

Bernanke prepared text on Capitol Hill Posted: 14 Apr 2010 07:11 AM PDT Bernanke see significant restraints on pace of US recovery mainly from construction. Fiscal conditions of state and local governments are also a constraint. See moderate recovery with job gains fueling consumer spending and he does see encouraging signs in the employment picture. Inflation expectations are stable Banks are stronger however bank lending has fallen and loan demand remains sluggish. Finally, he warned of sustainable fiscal balance. Overall, his comments do not discuss policy on rates and give a little for the those looking for a change in language and those looking for no change in the language (i.e. rates will remain steady for an “extended period of time”).

Bernanke Testimony at 10:00 AM Posted: 14 Apr 2010 06:54 AM PDT Market will be listening for any reference to potentials in changing the language from an “extended period of time” to something less restrictive.

Forex QUICK: AUDUSD holds 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart Posted: 14 Apr 2010 06:36 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Forex Morning Report - April 14 Posted: 14 Apr 2010 06:30 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD looks to test intraday resistance at 1.3633 Posted: 14 Apr 2010 05:54 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY moves above 200 hour MA but comes back off Posted: 14 Apr 2010 05:42 AM PDT The better Retail Sales pushed the USDJPY above resistance at the 93.62 level.  The spike higher reached 93.71 but found sellers above. The correction lower off the number has taken the pair below the key level to a low of 93.54.  The quick reversal on what should have been a bullish move higher may lead to some further profit taking.  Watch the 93.62 for clues.  A move back above should solicit momentum buying but until then, the market may be more disappointed and may look to correct with a move below the 93.41 paving the way for a move back toward the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) currently at the 93.24 level. A move above 93.62 would look toward the 93.93 level as a target. This is the 61.8% of the move down from the April high to the April low.

Retail Sales better than expected. CPI as expected Posted: 14 Apr 2010 05:31 AM PDT 1.6% vs 1.2% expected Ex Autos +0.6% Motor vehicles, parts       +6.7% Furniture                            +1.5% Electronics                        -1.3% Building materials          +3.1% Food, beverages             0.2% Health, personal care       0.2% Gasoline stations            -0.4% Clothing                            +2.3% Sporting goods                +1.0% General merchandise         0.6% Revisions were also up with headline going to +0.5% from +0.3%.  The CPI came in at +0.1% as expected with ex Food and Energy 0.0% vs +0.1% expected.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.14.2010 Posted: 14 Apr 2010 05:30 AM PDT Good Morning: As signs that the global recovery is gaining more and more traction-the JPY weakened, as investors look for higher-yielding investments. Continued concerns over Greece is still weighing on the Euro.   The Greek stock markets was down 4 %, and speculation mounts that Moody’s may need to cut Greece’s ratings again within the next 12-18 months.  The rescue package that the EU- and IMF have proposed for Greece is still not set in stone. World equity markets are higher, and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening. Commodity markets are higher across the board. Oil:$84.89                                    Gold:$1160.20 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS  9-Apr -11.00% 7:00A.M. BLOOMBERG GLOBAL CONFIDENCE  APRIL 53.78% 8:30A.M. CPI MoM MAR. 0.10% 0.00% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM MAR. 0.10% 0.10% 8:30A.M. CPI YoY MAR. 2.40% 2.10% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD& ENERGY YoY MAR. 1.20% 1.30% 8:30A.M. CPI CORE INDEX SA  MAR. 22O.579 8:30A.M. CPI NSA  MAR. 217.7I4 2I6.74I 8:30A.M. ADVANCE RETAIL SALES      MAR. 1.20% 0.30% 8:30A.M. RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS     MAR. 0.50% 0.80% 8:30A.M. RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS & GAS      MAR. 0.60% 0.90% 10:00A.M. BUSINESS INVENTORIES       FEB. 0.40% 0.00% 2:00P.M. FEDS BEIGE BOOK           HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

CPI and Retail Sales due at 8:30 Posted: 14 Apr 2010 05:27 AM PDT Expectations are for 0.1% MoM for the headline and the ex food and energy component.   The YoY is 2.4% and Ex Food and Energy comes in at 1.2%.  The Retail Sales for the month of March is expected to show a sharp 1.2% gain for the month after a 0.3% gain last month.  The ex Auto is also expected to rise by 0.5% after a 0.8% gain.  Retail Sales have risen by 4 of the last 5 months.  Ex Auto 5 of the last 7 months have shown increases. Earliet today Mortgage Applications fell by 9.6% for the current week.  The average rate dropped to 5.17% from 5.31% last month. The Obama administration stopped the purchase of Mortgage securities at the end of March which caused the spike higher in rates to the 5.31% level.

Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Webinar Posted: 14 Apr 2010 04:55 AM PDT Watch the rebroadcast of Tuesday’s FXDD Trading Webinar View the rebroadcast here

The April 14th NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 14 Apr 2010 04:42 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Moody’s: Greek rating cut possible in 12-18 months Posted: 14 Apr 2010 03:57 AM PDT Moody’s says greater than 50% chance of Greek rating cut in next 12-18 months. This comment sent Eur/Usd to new session lows just north of 1.3600.

Eurozone Industrial Production Posted: 14 Apr 2010 02:02 AM PDT The market did not show much of a reaction to a better than expected Feb industrial production number which came in at 0.9%; better than both the forecast of 0.2%, but worse than the prior reading of 1.7%

Greece package may be larger than originally announced Posted: 13 Apr 2010 11:58 PM PDT German newspaper Handelsblatt reports that Europe’s rescue package for Greece may turn out to be three times as large as originally announced. The publication cites unidentified people in the European Commission. The package might amount to a s much as 90 billion Euros. This appears to be a bad news item for the Eur as both Eur/Jpy and Eur/Usd have come off recent highs and are starting to build downward momentum. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3627 and Eur/Jpy at 127.21.

BOJ’s Shirakawa Speaks… Posted: 13 Apr 2010 11:58 PM PDT Making a speech at the Trust Companies Association in Tokyo, BOJ governor Shirakawa commented that there are clear signs of sustainable economic recovery, and that the BOJ will continue to maintain an easy money policy. Following the release of this comment, the USD/JPY made a new session high of 93.49 and broke through hourly trendline resistance which we have been following since April 5th. Yesterday, we noted that the pair had test and retreated with the 10:00 hourly bar; it tested it once more since then and has now opened and closed two consecutive times above the trendline, and made a brief move through the 50.0% retracement level.  The next stop to the upside is the 200 hr MAVG which comes in at 93.62. If there is a move back through the trendline, the 61.8% level comes in just below it at 93.13.

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