Forex Market Updates & Commentary

USDJPY moves higher on BOJ intervention
EURUSD look at the charts
Charting the Majors with James Chen – Starting Soon at 9:30 AM U.S. ET
ECB’s Trichet Speaking
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.4.2011
US Jobless Claims Rise Back To 400K, Better Than Expectations
EU’s Barroso
German factory orders (m/m) 1.8% vs. -0.2% expected.
USD/JPY reaches 80.00
Shirakawa says not aiming policy at specific forex levels.
Japanese Eco. Minister Yosano says need a debate on currencies at G7 and G20 level.
BOJ Intervention
BOJ keeps key overnight rate between 0-0.1% and expands asset purchases by 5 TRLN JPY.
8-4 Calender
Forex Traders Course Thursday August 4 2011 4:00PM – Special Class

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 07:12 AM PDT

Bank of Japan intervenes to stop the rise in the JPY (fall in the USDJPY) but this time (versus when they intervened in March), they do not have the full support of the rest of the world. As a result, the impact should not be as great. Looking at the 5 minute chart the 38.2% of the spike higher will be watched by traders to see if buyers emerge against the level. The threat of additional intervention should keep the pairs sellers subdued (or at least fearful).

Looking at the daily chart, the sharp move higher took the price through the 38.2% of the move down from the April high at 85.509 to the low at 76.283. However the price did find sellers against the trendline off the same high price at the 80.31 level (high reache 80.22). This trendline will need to be breached above to next target the 100 day MA at the 81.00 area. In March, the day after the sharp decline, the price bottomed at the 78.81 level. This level will be eyed below.

EURUSD look at the charts

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 07:01 AM PDT

The daily chart targets the 1.4103 level (61.8% of the move up from the July low. ON the 5 minute chart the price fell below channel support for the second time at 1.4148. Stay below this level and bearish bias continues. Move above back into the channel and should see some profit taking, with 1.4206 a target. The price needs to stay in the channel however and not break back below the trendline.

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Starting Soon at 9:30 AM U.S. ET

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 06:05 AM PDT

Please join us today (Thursday, August 4) at 9:30 AM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/499858577 .

ECB’s Trichet Speaking

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 05:37 AM PDT

Says:

Moderate liquidity remains ample
Recent data indicate some economic slowdown
Economy will show moderate expansion
Price gains must not spark broad-based-pressures
Inflation expectations must remain firm
Short term rates remain low
ECB monetary stance remains accommodative
ECB will conduct liquidity providing LTRO over 6 months
Operations will be announced on August 9th
Operation will mature on March 1, 2012
ECB will conduct 3 month LTROS at fixed rate
Underlying pace of growth remains positive
Economic activity expected to be dampened somewhat
Inflation risks remain on upside
Downside risks to growth may have intensified
Dollar is good for the world

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.4.2011

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning:

We start the morning off by noting that both the ECB and Bank of England left their benchmark interest rates unchanged today.
This was highly expected even though the UK economy continues to show signs of faltering , and the EU has a debt crisis that is not going away anytime fast.

In other FX news-the Bank of Japan joined the Swiss National Bank by staging an intervention in the forex markets that drove the USD/JPY higher -getting the pair over 80.oo for the first time since July. The pair has since moved back into the 79 handle. The BOJ stated that they will continue with their QE program by adding 10 Trillion yen to their monetary policy. With the JPY trading below the key 80.00 level, Japanese exports (the bulk of their economy) get hurt, and erode corporate profits.

With data showing that the US economy is lackluster at best-the powers to be at the Federal Reserve, along with think tanks around the world, are examining to see if the US economy is heading back into recession (even though many think that we never got out of the last recession).
Economist will continue to examine the data-and tomorrow’s employment figures will be a major factor in determining the state of the US economy.

Equity futures are much lower again this morning-while gold is higher again>

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Jobless Claims Rise Back To 400K, Better Than Expectations

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 04:00 AM PDT

Jobless Claims: Survey: 405K Actual: 400K Prior: 398K Revised: 401K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3700K Actual: 3730K Prior: 3703K Revisad: 3720K

EU’s Barroso

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 03:37 AM PDT

Sent a letter to EU colleagues on Italy and Spain, and said Euro-area financial stability must be safe guarded.

Eurozone c no longer only in periphery.
Need to see how to improve EFSF and ESM effectiveness.
July 21 decisions not having intended effect on markets.
Urges a rapi re-assessment of EFSF and ESM.

German factory orders (m/m) 1.8% vs. -0.2% expected.

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 03:00 AM PDT

USD/JPY reaches 80.00

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 02:10 AM PDT

Well, 79.99- close enough! Since touching the 80 handle the pair has come off; now trading around 79.50.

Shirakawa says not aiming policy at specific forex levels.

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 12:52 AM PDT

Japanese Eco. Minister Yosano says need a debate on currencies at G7 and G20 level.

Posted: 04 Aug 2011 12:48 AM PDT

Today’s FX action should ahve an impact on speculation in the near term.
Will keep watching markets.
BOJ moves are appropriate and timely.

BOJ Intervention

Posted: 03 Aug 2011 11:31 PM PDT

The JPY continues to weaken against the majors after the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign-exchange market for the first time since March (when the G7 jointly sold the yen) in order to dull gains in the currency that were threatening exporter profits and the nations recovery. Finance Minister Noda noted that the intervention was unilateral. In Tokyo, Credit Suisse Group AG chief currency strategist, Koji Fukaya, noted that "they may continue to intervene until the yen weakens beyond 80", which appears may be the case if USD/JPY continues to trade on session highs. Today was the third time we have seen the BOJ intervene since it ended its hands-off approach which ended in Sept. 2010.