Forex Market Updates & Commentary | ![]() |
- USDCHF safe haven, Yes. Testing key support though
- Choppy action continues for the EURUSD
- UK GDP estimate higher but special factors boosted the number
- EURUSD has choppy trade as stocks open
- Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET
- GBPUSD slightly bearish intraday. Unchanged on the day
- EURUSD in tight range in early NY trade; Stocks/FOMC eyed
- Non Farm Productivity falls by -0.3%, Unit Labor Costs up 2.2%
- Canada Housing Starts rise to 205.1 from 196.6K last month
- NY Morning Forex Commentary for Auugst 9th
- SNB reported adding liquidity in the market
- US Labor Costs (QoQ) due at 8:30 AM ET
- Canada Housing Starts are expected to decline to 195 Units. Data due at 8:15 AM
- US Non Farm Productivity due at 8:30 AM ET
- Market talk that Fed was selling Gold
USDCHF safe haven, Yes. Testing key support though Posted: 09 Aug 2011 07:34 AM PDT The USDCHF has continued to be a safe haven with once again new lows being made. The pair, however, has tested what is channel support at the 0.7357 level and being able to define risk gives traders the confidence to take profit and/or buy the dip (in the face of the trend). What traders are hoping for is a corrective rebound higher for the pair, with a target initially at the 0.74478 level which corresponds with the 38.2% of the days trading range. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see blue line below is also near this level). |
Choppy action continues for the EURUSD Posted: 09 Aug 2011 07:23 AM PDT The price held the 38.2% of the days range on the second dip in the NY session and the price has moved higher. The market still needs to convince the bulls via a move above the 1.4260 area. If the price can extend above this level, there should be a further cover bid in the market with the high area the next target. Failure…and the market will simply rotate back lower. The market continues to search for a rhythm. So far there is little. Traders are simply trying ideas, and hoping for follow through. IF it does not materialize, profit takers enter and positions are even reversed. Back and forth. Back and forth. |
UK GDP estimate higher but special factors boosted the number Posted: 09 Aug 2011 07:00 AM PDT The NIESR UK GDP Estimate came in at +0.6% for July. This is higher than the 0.2% in June. They ssay that underlying growth weaker htan the headline number The GBPUSD fell before the release and has since rebounded. The resistance now comes in at the 1.6319 which was the close from yesterday and the 1.6326 level which is where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is currently found. |
EURUSD has choppy trade as stocks open Posted: 09 Aug 2011 06:59 AM PDT The stock market open and moves sent the EURUSD intiially to the downside. The price dipped to the “Remembered Line” target at the 1.4226 level. THis level was highs from yesterday afternoon and far east trading today. The price is now back near the 100 bar MA and at the 1.4249 level and activity has slowed as the market digests the next move. Expect choppy action do dominate. Patience is needed. If uncomfortable, don’t fight the uncomfort. Fear is a traders worst enemy. So control fear by defining risk and being patient. |
Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET Posted: 09 Aug 2011 06:53 AM PDT Please join us today (Tuesday, Aug 9) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/596409272 . |
GBPUSD slightly bearish intraday. Unchanged on the day Posted: 09 Aug 2011 06:41 AM PDT Althought the GBPUSD is coming down from what is higher levels on the day, the price is now below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute (blue and green line in the chart above). It is also below the midpoint of the days range at 1.6337. Activity nevertheless, remains choppy for the pair. The price is currently trading around the 200 bar MA at the 1.6326 level. Stay below this technical level and the downside can be futher explored with the 1.6300 level the next key target to get through. A move higher (i.e. above the 1.5326) needs to get through the midpoint at the 1.6337 and the 100 bar MA at the 1.6344 level currently in order to make the technical picture look better/more bullish. Remember as well that 1.6318 is the close from yesterday. This may also be a level to eye today. |
EURUSD in tight range in early NY trade; Stocks/FOMC eyed Posted: 09 Aug 2011 05:55 AM PDT The EURUSD has been in a up and down range over the last few hours of trading with the 1.4348 level support on the downside and 1.4387 the ceiling on the upside. On the last move to the downside, the attempt was made to extend below this range, but the market buyers held the support against the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 1.4240 level. The ability to hold the support keeps me more positive on the market for the time being. Looking at the hourly chart below, the level that sticks out to me is the midpoint of the weeks range. That level comes in at the 1.42769 level. A move above this level will be needed to keep the bulls happy. From there the high at 1.4287 and the trendline (see chart below) comes in at 1.4303 are the targets to push through initially. On the downside, the 1.4262 level is the 200 hour MA. If the downside is be explored, a move below this level is needed. Intraday bulls should look to lean against this level initial. A move below and some of the early NY bullishness disappears and it should lead to a move down toward the lower support (i.e. 1.4249). The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.4232 level. This would also be a downside target. Needless to say the FOMC will be the focus as will the stock market. The global stocks have rcbounded in trading today after the sharp fall yesterday that saw the S&P to move closer and closer to the 38.2% retracement support at the 1101.73 area (low reached 1119.38). This still remains a target and could continue to make the risk on/risk off trades a focus. On a down stock market, the EURUSD has tended to move lower. A rally in stocks and the EURUSD rallies. I expect continued volatility although s&P futures are up 15 or so points in premarket activity. The FOMC decision will be eyed at 2:15 PM ET with expectations for no change. However, there could be some other easing enacted by the Fed to counter the slower growth trajectory that is now expected due to decreased confidence, global headwinds (especially from EU nations) and sluggish employment growth. The most likely would be a lowering of the reserve requirement that banks must keep at the Fed for every deposit they hold. This would free up reserves for lending and be a low impact form of easing that would be easy to take away when the Fed deems appropriate. I do not expect another round of QE at this point. There are some members of the Fed who feel that the QE2 did not accomplish anything/enough. Mortgage rates remain low and treasury yields have not moved lower since the S&P downgrade. Ironically since the lapse of QE2 yields have moved down and demand remains in tact (in an ironic flight to quality). Let the market decide the level. Plus the Fed must remember that at some point the balsnce sheet of the Fed will need to be unwound. It may not be for quite some time, but if they continue to balloon the balance sheet, getting out of the treasury holdings could be extremely disruptive. As a result, I would expect the Fed to continue to buy issues as the Feds holdings mature. This keeps the Feds balance sheet in tact, keeps the Fed supportive in the market and also keeps the risk of lack of Fed credibility (we already have problems with Congressional and Presidential credibility) from being a market issue. |
Non Farm Productivity falls by -0.3%, Unit Labor Costs up 2.2% Posted: 09 Aug 2011 05:31 AM PDT The 1Q NON Farm Productivity was revised sharply lower to -0.6% from 1.8% while Unit Labor costs caused the decline as they were revised sharply higher to 4.8%. Overall, the data shows that corporations have been less productive over the 1st half of the year. The good news is the labor is gaining. |
Canada Housing Starts rise to 205.1 from 196.6K last month Posted: 09 Aug 2011 05:26 AM PDT |
NY Morning Forex Commentary for Auugst 9th Posted: 09 Aug 2011 05:12 AM PDT |
SNB reported adding liquidity in the market Posted: 09 Aug 2011 04:48 AM PDT |
US Labor Costs (QoQ) due at 8:30 AM ET Posted: 09 Aug 2011 04:39 AM PDT |
Canada Housing Starts are expected to decline to 195 Units. Data due at 8:15 AM Posted: 09 Aug 2011 04:38 AM PDT |
US Non Farm Productivity due at 8:30 AM ET Posted: 09 Aug 2011 04:35 AM PDT |
Market talk that Fed was selling Gold Posted: 09 Aug 2011 04:35 AM PDT |
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