Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.17.2011

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 06:47 AM PDT

Good Morning:

FX markets were disappointed at the announcement by the Swiss National Bank regarding the weakening the CHF.  The idea of a peg against the Euro was discounted for now-as the SNB made no additional comments regarding this proposal.
The CHF rose again after the SNB’s lack of commitment regarding pegging the CHF to the Euro.  For the SNB to peg the CHF to the Euro-it would cause the SNB to have a program of unlimited intervention to keep the peg  maintained.

In the US- PPI (wholesale costs) rose .2%-which is higher than expected.   The rising cost does eat into the consumers pocketbook, and this is a direct reason why spending by US consumers has dropped.  The decline in commodity prices (ie: oil) have yet to positively impact consumers.  
Year to date, the rise in wholesale costs has been 7.2% -even with companied reluctant to raise prices to consumers-these rising  wjholesale costs are added to consumers costs in one way or another.
Are inflation fears back on center stage?  We will need to see how the Fed reacts to this latest news-let’s hope they can get this figured out before it develops into an out of control situation.

Gold is higher-Equities are higher-and oil is higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD finds profit taking sellers against trendline resistance

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 06:04 AM PDT

The 1.4512 level is topside trendline resistance for the EURUSD.  The high came in at 1.4506 and the price has rotated back down. 

The price in the EURUSD trended higher in the London sesssion with 3 legs to the upside. The first two legs (see chart below), held the 38.2% retracement of the move higher at the 1.43756 and the trend resumed.  The second  leg higher held support against the 38.2% at the 1.44238, and the trend resumed.  The third and most recent leg ran into the hourly resistance at the 1.4512 level and as a result of the inability to extend above, the price  has fallen through the 38.2% level this time.   This is indicative that the trend is likely over for the time being. 

I will be looking for sellers on rallies toward the 1.4489 level for clues. Stay below and the price should target the 1.4453 and then the 1.4436 areas (see chart below).  A move above the 1.4489 will look to test the high. Then the market can decide if a break of the 1.4512 is warranted

Obama thinks super committee needs to go beyond 1.5 trl mandate

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 05:49 AM PDT

He will present congress with a package that outline cuts over and above 1.5 trillion

In addition a government source is saying that jobs package will likely contain tax cuts,infrastructure and help for sectors with long term unemployment.

WEBINAR at 10 AM ET: Ask the Chartist

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 05:41 AM PDT

Have a question about your trading?  About a chart?  About the forex market in general?  Come into the Ask the Chartist webinar at 10:00 AM today where Greg Michalowski (subbing in for James Chen) will answer your questions.  See you there.

TO REGISTER PLEASE CLICK HERE

FX Street Webinar TODAY at 11:00 AM EST

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 05:35 AM PDT

James Chen – Ask the Chartist Wednesday at 10:00 AM-  CLICK TO REGISTER

PPI Ex Food and Energy higher at +0.4%. YoY 7.2%

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 05:31 AM PDT

YoY 7.2% Ex Food and Energy 2.5%. Both higher than expected.
The MoM PPI comes in at +0.2% vs +0.1 expectations.

US PPI due at 8:30 AM ET. Expectation +0.1%

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 05:29 AM PDT

The Ex Food and Energy is expected at +0.2
YoY is expected to be unchanged at 7%
Ex Food and Energy is expected at 2.3% vs 2.4%.

THe PPI is elevated because of higher commodity prices. Ex Food and energy is more contained. The Fed is not concerned about inflation in the currency environment. As a result, I do not expect a big reaction.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 17th 2011

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 05:13 AM PDT

In todays Morning video I look at the EURUSD , GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD and EURCHF

According to the White House, Obama is said to be asking for cuts beyond 1.5 TRL, and is planning new measures to boost job growth.

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 03:40 AM PDT

In a letter to Van Rompuy, Sarkozy and Merkel calls for tougher rules on debt and deficit.

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 03:38 AM PDT

Eurozone CPI (y/y) 2.5% as expected.

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 02:02 AM PDT

Core CPI (y/y) 1.2%; worse than expected.

MPC Meeting Minutes

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 01:39 AM PDT

  • Vote 9-0, asset purchase was 8-1
  • Some members still concerned about upside CPI risks.
  • Euro and US fiscal concerns led to stress in financial markets.
  • Recent events weakened case for removing stimulus.
  • Some members considered the case for more QE.
  • Likely global slowdown will be more prolonged.
  • Greatest risk to UK stems from euro-area crisis.
  • Inflation should ease in the medium term.
  • Data on consumers, manufacturing “subdued”.

UK claimant count change 37.1K vs. 20.1K forecast.

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 01:33 AM PDT

Average earnings index slightly better 2.6% and the unemployment rate was worse than expected at 7.9%

Eurozone current account -7.4B; worse than the -3.6B forecast and -5.2B prior reading.

Posted: 17 Aug 2011 01:01 AM PDT

SNB says CHF remains massively overvalued and it has expanded measures.

Posted: 16 Aug 2011 11:57 PM PDT

Adds that the bank will take further measures if needed, and will use FX swaps; measures so far are having an impact on the CHF.

Despite comments that the Swiss franc is too strong, the market has continued to buy the CHF after the SNB refrained from announcing a EUR/CHF peg; most notably against the EUR. Seen on the 15 minute chart the EUR/CHF had a 200 point range on the last candlestick; almost reaching the 61.8% line and currently testing the 200 bar moving average. Continued selling in the pair could see up continue lower to 1.12349; a support level from earlier in the month.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)